• bell-wether, bellweather, belwether

From Middle English belwether, belleweder, equivalent to bell +‎ wether (“castrated ram”).

• (Received Pronunciation) IPA^(key): /ˈbɛlwɛðə/
• (General American) IPA^(key): /ˈbɛlwɛðɚ/

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bellwether (plural bellwethers)

1. The leading sheep of a flock, having a bell hung round its neck.
   • 1861, Oliver Wendell Holmes Sr., chapter XXXI, in Elsie Venner:

     Several old ladies forthwith proclaimed their intention of following him; but, as one or two of them were deaf, and another had been threatened with an attack of that mild, but obstinate complaint, dementia senilis, many thought it was not so much the force of his arguments as a kind of tendency to jump as the bellwether jumps, well known in flocks not included in the Christian fold.

2. (figuratively) Anything that indicates future trends.

   Synonyms: gauge, indicator, sign

   Mortgage delinquencies often act as a bellwether for a forthcoming recession.

   • 1878, Henry James, An International Episode‎^[1]:

     At Hampton Court the little flocks of visitors are not provided with an official bellwether, but are left to browse at discretion upon the local antiquities.

   • 1919, Charles Fort, chapter 12, in The Book of the Damned:

     I suspect that, after all,[…]—that all this has been known, perhaps for ages, to certain ones upon this earth, a cult or order, members of which function like bellwethers to the rest of us, or as superior slaves or overseers, directing us in accordance with instructions received—from Somewhere else—in our mysterious usefulness.

   • 2017 February 1, Stephen Buranyi, “The high-tech war on science fraud”, in The Guardian‎^[2]:

     In December, after everyone had weighed in, Nature, a bellwether of mainstream scientific thought for more than a century, cautiously supported a future of automated scientific scrutiny in an editorial that addressed the Statcheck controversy without explicitly naming it.

   • 2022 May 16, Philip Oltermann, “German state elections show populism in decline on left and right”, in The Guardian‎^[3]:

     A bellwether election in Germany’s most populous state has shown a further eroding of support for populist parties on the far ends of the political spectrum, thrown up questions over the pulling power of the chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and entrenched the growing authority of the Greens.

   • 2025 April 2, Cameron Joseph, “Democrats’ big election night gives them first hope since Trump’s victory”, in The Christian Science Monitor:

     Wisconsin’s state Supreme Court races were once sleepy affairs. But over the past decade they have increasingly been seen as crucial national bellwethers.

3. (finance, figuratively) A stock or bond that is widely believed to be an indicator of the overall market's condition.
   • 2009, Joe Duarte, Market Timing For Dummies, John Wiley & Sons, →ISBN, page 120:

     One of my favorite sentiment indicators is bellwether stocks — key stocks that are leaders in their fields. When investors buy or sell these shares, it's usually a good sign of confidence or the lack of it in that sector of the market and sometimes even the economy.

• bellwether state
• bellwether stock

• omen
• harbinger

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