Baltics, Nordics, Poland and Ukraine are 'Europe's shield'

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The threats posed by Russia and the alienation of the United States from its traditional allies have forced Europe to come together and increase its investments in security and defence, reports Latvian Radio.

In this regard, the Baltic states, the Nordic countries, and Poland are a model for the rest of Europe, which are not only increasing their military capabilities, but also effectively countering Russian hybrid threats, and continue to provide all kinds of support to Ukraine in the fight against Russian aggression.

Analysts point out that European security largely depends on the defensive shield formed by the Baltics, Nordic countries, and Poland.

After Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine four years ago, Europe had its illusion of peaceful coexistence with Russia for the past 30 years shattered. It was therefore necessary to end its huge dependence on Russian energy resources, as well as to increase defence spending, which had long been neglected.

Previously, NATO member states had to allocate at least 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP) to their defence (though even this amount was not binding), but last year at a summit in The Hague, alliance members agreed to increase military spending to 5% of GDP within ten years.

In 2025, for the first time, all 32 NATO member states had allocated at least 2% of their GDP to their defence. Meanwhile, a vanguard of individual member states were already rapidly approaching the 5% threshold.

The countries of the Alliance's northeastern flank have demonstrated that defense is a priority for them, and therefore they will continue to rapidly increase investments in improving their military capabilities in the coming years – 2026 sees Latvia's defence spending increased to 4.9%. 

Shared values, shared responsibilities 

The five Nordic countries and three Baltic states, commonly referred to as the 'NB8', have deepened their cooperation in recent years because they are aware that only by working together can they create a significant counterweight to Russia, Anna Rennéus Guthrie, who heads the Stockholm Free World Forum think tank, told Latvian Radio. 

"We share values, such as a deep respect for the foundations of democracy, the rule of law, and we are open, free-market economies. Geographically, our region is the strategic core for the defence of Northern Europe. The Arctic, the Baltic Sea, and the North Atlantic are territories that play a central role in Russia's confrontation with the West. Therefore, it is entirely logical that the strategic importance of our countries in the region is growing, and this is promoted by ourselves and our interests. 

"I would say that the NB8 should be seen on a broader scale, including Poland with its growing economic and military weight, which strengthens the alliance's collective ability to act as a strong counterweight to Russian aggression. And if we add Germany, then NB10 is formed, which unites the Baltic Sea countries. Thus, we become an even more influential group of like-minded countries, setting a new standard for our common security," said Guthrie. 

Guthrie noted that much has been done in the past four years to strengthen the region's defences. The researcher cited the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, as well as the deployment of alliance ground forces under Swedish leadership in Finland, as key successes. 

Eitvydas Bajarūnas, a Lithuanian non-resident senior researcher at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told Latvian Radio that the current US administration's unclear policies and Europe's nascent joint defence projects are forcing the Nordic and Baltic countries to cooperate more closely. 

Work closely with the Ukrainians

Like Guthrie, Bajarūnas believes that the NB8 countries should deepen cooperation with other countries in the region: "If we look from the Lithuanian point of view, we also have very close ties with Poland. And if you ask any Lithuanian official, we definitely see Ukraine in this picture as well. 

"Without Ukraine, any regional format would be incomplete. The Ukrainian army is currently the strongest in Europe. It is a battle-tested army, and Ukraine has the ability and courage to demonstrate its readiness to defend itself against Russia." 

Guthrie believes that the NB8 alliance still needs to accomplish several important tasks to reach its full potential. 

"I believe that Europe needs greater leadership from our countries to replace the more traditional and indecisive powers that represented the old Europe. We can also include Germany and even France, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands to achieve this common goal. There are also several military and defence structures that can be further developed, but we should not forget or neglect the potential that lies in the economic sphere. 

"I would like to see some kind of growth pact between our countries that would promote deeper economic integration within the European Union, by more closely connecting our capital markets, energy and digital infrastructure, as well as research clusters. 

"And then, of course, there is also the single market for the defence industry and digital sovereignty. It is time to act to develop a European cloud infrastructure and our own artificial intelligence solutions, reducing dependence on foreign technologies that could be used as a tool for political influence at critical moments," the expert said. 

Cooperation with US should not be written off yet 

Bajarūnas is convinced that Europe's ability to deter Russia from a military attack will largely depend on the Nordic and Baltic states. He compared the NB8 countries and Poland to a shield:

"This allegory about the shield must be seen in the context that in the first wave of the Russian invasion, we should be able to hold the defence ourselves. However, if the war were to continue longer, we would, of course, need stronger support. 

"That is why we, the Baltic States, support the presence of NATO allies on our territory. The purpose of the Nordic-Baltic shield is to stop the first wave of attack, regardless of whether it is a conventional or hybrid attack, but later, of course, we would need stronger European or NATO support." 

Bajarūnas also stressed that the main security guarantor of the Baltic states remains NATO and the US. "We cannot simply declare that we do not trust President Donald Trump and that we should abandon these security guarantees. The current situation is that we do not have other significant security guarantees. 

"But, of course, we must take into account the new US military strategy, which emphasizes that the US role in European defence will diminish in the future and that the Americans are actually encouraging Europeans to take a leading role in European defence," said Bajarūnas, adding that the US will not completely withdraw its forces from Europe, as they are intended not only to defend Europe, but also to conduct operations in the Middle East and Africa.

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