Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC)

Last week was another tough time for the mega-cap indices, and key technical supports are getting chopped up like dry wood. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 2.1% and has declined for five consecutive weeks, with the damage at almost 8%. Most of the decline has occurred in those past five weeks, as the index is off 8.7% from its January 27 all-time closing high (ATH). The rounding or rolling top we have talked about was confirmed last week, as the low of the range from November 21 was taken out. The SPX also lost its important 50-week simple average, and we saw a bearish 10- and 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) crossover. The next cluster of support sits in the 6,100-6,182 region. It represents the top of the last breakout region as well as an initial 38.2% retracement of the rally from April 2025 until the recent peak. In addition, the flattening 21-month EMA lies at 6,182. Still, there wasn't a complete washout as the S&P MidCap 400 managed to rise 0.4% and the S&P SmallCap 600 tacked on 1.1%. Year to date, both the Nasdaq and the S&P 100 are down about 10%, while the Nasdaq 100 has given back 8.4%. All three indices entered minor correction territory last week, with losses from their October 29, 2025, ATHs ranging from 11% to 12.6%. Those also are the biggest setbacks since March and April 2025, during tariff tantrums. Communication Services cratered 4.3% last week, as internet stocks GOOGL (-9%) and META (-11%) were pummeled. Information Technology was whacked by almost 4%, with the beleaguered software industry crushed again as MSFT and ORCL fell by more than 6%, while CRM declined 8%, APP was smashed for 14%, and INTU, NOW, and CRWD all fell 9% to 10%. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

Generac designs and manufactures power generation equipment serving residential, commercial, and industrial markets. It offers standby generators, portable generators, lighting, outdoor power equipment, and a suite of clean energy products. Sales generated in the United States account for the majority of total sales.

Generac designs and manufactures power generation equipment serving residential, commercial, and industrial markets. It offers standby generators, portable generators, lighting, outdoor power equipment, and a suite of clean energy products. Sales generated in the United States account for the majority of total sales.

Up and down we go, and where we land, nobody knows. Such is the hour-by-hour action in the crude oil market. Light sweet crude (WTI) peaked at $91.50/barrel on Tuesday, plummeted to an intraday low of $76.75, and near the close was trading at $86.60, down almost 9%. The midday swoon occurred after a post was made by Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who said that the U.S. Navy had escorted its first oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. But it turned out that the event did not happen, and the post was taken down quickly. The financial markets have enough to deal without that kind of noise. Brent oil fell to $81 intraday and closed near $91. Oil volatility (OVX) based on option premiums of the United States Oil Fund (USO) closed at 108%, the highest reading since the conflict began. It is also the highest close, excluding the pandemic, since collection of the data started in 2008. Trading volume on the USO was over 134 million, almost matching Monday's record. Since late February, bullish sentiment for crude oil has spiked to the highest level since April of 2024 -- and before that, since September of 2023. Both of those periods represented an intermediate-term peak for oil. Considering the volatility in crude oil, the S&P 500 is hanging tough. The index is down only a little since this all started and is holding the 10-month exponential moving average. That could change if the index breaks below its 200-day average at 6,592, the closing low from November 20 at 6,539, and the important 50-week average (which comes in at 6,433). Below there, we might be talking about a flush to the low-6,000 area. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)