At his Nobel Prize in Literature acceptance speech in 2017, Bob Dylan fuelled what had been a matter of discussion since his name was announced as the winner – what truly constitutes “literature”: “If someone had ever told me I had a chance of winning the Nobel Prize,” he said, “I would have to think I’d have about the same odds as standing on the moon.” But the Nobel has always thrived on surprises.

Each October, as 18 members of the Swedish Academy prepare to unveil the winning name – often expected, sometimes obscure, occasionally incendiary – that will join the storied, and sometimes controversial, lineage of the Nobel Prize in Literature, a peculiar tension grips the literary world.

Haruki Murakami, long a bookmakers’ favourite, has remained in the shadows so far. James Joyce and Virginia Woolf were never honoured. Meanwhile, some laureates elike Johannes V Jensen, who was nominated over 50 times — waited through nearly two decades of nominations before hearing their names.

Name: Nobel Prize in Literature

Age: Began in 1901. Now, do the maths.

But it doesn’t add up: Good catch. There have been years when the Nobel Prize in Literature has been withheld. The Prize was not given in 1914, 1918 and between 1940 and 1943 because of the two World Wars. In 1935, the Prize wasn’t given out because no suitable candidate was said to be found.

So, how many Nobel literature laureates have been there then? Between 1901 and 2024, the Nobel Prize in Literature has been awarded 117 times to 121 Nobel Prize laureates.

What of the gender ratio? As dismal as in every other sphere, only 18 women have been awarded the Nobel Prize in Literature as opposed to 103 men.

Who won the first Nobel Prize in Literature? French poet and essayist Sully Prudhomme in 1901.

And what of the first woman winner? Selma Lagerlöf of Sweden “in appreciation of the lofty idealism, vivid imagination and spiritual perception that characterise her writings”.

Just out of curiosity, which country has won the maximum number of Nobel Prize in Literature? France has won 16, closely followed by the United States and the United Kingdom.

Has any Indian won the Nobel Prize in Literature? Rabindranath Tagore won it in 1913 for his collection of poems, Gitanjali. He was the first Indian and the first non-European to be conferred the prize.

Anybody who has been in the running for years? You’d be surprised by how many. Leo Tolstoy, Robert Frost, Chinua Achebe, Haruki Murakami, Salman Rushdie, Margaret Atwood, Joyce Carol Oates, and it goes on.

Is there any selection criteria? Only literary merit and quality apparently.

And who gets to decide that? Experts, critics and former laureates come up with a long longlist of around 220 recommendations from across the world. This is whittled down first to 20, and then to five in the shortlist. Once that stage is reached, the award committee and the Nobel academy take over and read through their body of work before arriving at a consensus.

Has anyone ever refused the Nobel Prize for Literature? What’s an award without some melodrama? In 1964, French existentialist philosopher Jean-Paul Sartre refused the Prize because of his anti-establishment views. Russian writer Boris Pasternak refused the award in 1958 for fear of reprisals from the Soviet government. Pasternak’s son collected the medal on his behalf in 1989.

Who won the Prize last year? South Korean writer Han Kang “for her intense poetic prose that confronts historical traumas and exposes the fragility of human life”.

One last thing. Any idea who the favourites are this year? Well, the usual ones, of course, Murakami, Rushdie, Atwood, Anne Carson, Jamaica Kincaid, Can Xue, but also the names of Australian writer Gerald Murnane, Hungarian novelist and screenwriter László Krasznahorkai, Mexican writer Cristina Rivera Garza and American writer Thomas Pynchon are doing the bookies’ rounds.

When does the suspense lift then? Thursday, October 9.