Punjab’s wheat procurement season this year presents a contrasting picture — while total arrivals in mandis have declined compared to last year, government agencies have stepped in more aggressively, compensating for a sharp drop in private trade participation. A comparative analysis of official data from May 15, 2025, and May 6, 2026, highlights shifting procurement dynamics rather than any clear structural improvement.

Though procurement operations are officially continuing till May 15, wheat arrivals in mandis have already slowed sharply. Daily arrivals, which had peaked at 10–11 lakh metric tonnes during the height of the season, have now dropped to nearly 56,000 metric tonnes, indicating that the season is nearing closure much earlier than last year.

Due to unusually high temperatures from February through the second week of March this year, the wheat crop experienced stress, leading to shrivelling of grains. This adversely affected crop development and reduced yields by an estimated 3 to 5 quintals per hectare in several pockets. As a result, wheat arrivals in mandis have remained lower compared to the corresponding period last year.

Overall arrivals and procurement: 2025 vs 2026

By May 15, 2025, Punjab had recorded total wheat arrivals of around 130.30 lakh metric tonnes (LMT).

In comparison, by May 6, 2026, arrivals stood at around 122.39 LMT, already showing a decline of nearly 5.9 per cent, despite procurement operations still being underway. However, procurement has slowed down now.

In 2025 (till May 15), government agencies procured 119.23 LMT, and private traders procured 10.79 LMT 2026 (till May 6). This means the government procurement has actually surpassed last year’s level despite lower arrivals, while private trade participation has collapsed by nearly 86–87%.

The data clearly suggests that government agencies had to absorb almost the entire market arrivals this year due to weak participation from private buyers.

Top 10 districts by wheat arrival — 2026 (Till May 6)

Top 10 districts in 2025 (Till May 15)

Most major procurement districts have reported lower arrivals this year, with declines generally ranging between 5% and 15%.

Bottom 5 districts by wheat arrival in 2026

Bottom 5 districts in 2025

These districts continue to remain low contributors in the procurement pool, with mostly stagnant or marginally declining arrivals.

Private Players: Near Disappearance from Mandis

Private trade participation has witnessed a dramatic collapse this year.

Top districts for private procurement in 2025

2026 Scenario shows private procurement has shrunk drastically

Several districts have recorded private purchases of less than 1000 MT. This shift forced government agencies to purchase nearly the entire wheat crop reaching mandis.

Government procurement share crosses 98–99%

In many districts, government agencies procured almost the entire arrivals:

The procurement pattern this year reflects a mandi system functioning overwhelmingly on state support rather than balanced market participation.

Currently, nearly 10 districts are recording less than 2,000 MT daily arrivals, showing that mandi activity has substantially slowed.