For everybody who looks to the monsoon to bring respite from the searing heat, May 26 was meant to be the red-letter day when the South West Monsoon would hit Kerala, its first stop in the Indian landmass. In Maharashtra, the countdown would begin for the rains to arrive from Kerala.

Except that the monsoon did not arrive in Kerala on May 26. Due to the El Nino, a condition in the Pacific Ocean when the sea surface temperature becomes abnormally high and disrupts the weather globally, India is forecast to experience a below-normal monsoon this year. As Pune experiences warmer days, the question arises. Will the monsoon also be delayed?

The maximum temperature was around 38 °C on Wednesday. Pashan and Shivajinagar were among the warmest areas, while NDA and Lavale were around 2 °C lower. The mornings were warm, with Koregaon Park recording 26.6 °C while Shivajinagar was 24.9 °C and NDA 23.3 °C.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a largely clear sky for the next few days, indicating that direct sunlight will continue to keep the city and its suburbs warm. IMD does foresee a possibility of rain in Pune until June 1. Even then, it would be light showers.

An Approximate, no Definite Date

SD Sanap, Scientist with the IMD, Pune, says that it is still too early to say when the monsoon will arrive in Maharashtra. He adds that IMD is monitoring the conditions. What is certain is that “monsoon activity will be less in Maharashtra as in most parts of the Indian region, except the Northeast and the Western Himalayan region, where the rainfall will be on the higher side” due to possible impact of the El-Nino.

He adds that a forecast for the monsoon onset indicates the approximate date; it is plus or minus four days from this date for the monsoon to actually set in over Kerala. “When IMD models indicated that the monsoon would arrive around May 26 in Kerala, it meant that we could expect it anytime between May 22 and May 30. We are still within the dates predicted for the monsoon,” he says.

Sanap says that the monsoon arrives in the Konkan around 8-10 days after its onset in Kerala. This, for Maharashtra, is usually June 8-10. Last year, however, the monsoon arrived in south Konkan on May 25, which was 14 days earlier than normal. “The monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 24 in 2025, around six days before normal. Every year, the arrival of the monsoon in different parts of the country changes based on the current atmospheric conditions,” says Sanap.

Pune is unlikely to experience sudden changes in the weather as the monsoon sets in. It is only when the southwesterly winds come closer that the region will see an increase in rainfall and the skies will turn cloudy. “During the monsoon, we will see fluctuation in temperature but the maximum temperature is, generally, on the lower side. The minimum temperature will show variations. If it rains, the temperature will drop but if it does not rain and Pune has only cloudy conditions, the minimum temperature might increase,” he says.