US President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House that the US “will be leaving [Iran] very soon” and US military action could end as soon as “two or three weeks”. If that were to prove true, it is still likely that the price of crude will remain elevated, possibly around $100 per barrel, for months after this war indeed draws to a close.

There are multiple reasons for this: Supply disruptions will take many months to unwind, even if the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil trade traverses, were to open up fully. While tankers stranded at sea on either side of the Strait currently could make their way to their destinations as soon as the passage were to open up, new shipments on that route could likely take longer to get going. That is because shipping contracts, marine insurance and other supporting factors would have to be redrawn now, adjusting for the new realities and the lingering threats that could progressively ebb over time.

Then there’s the issue of damages suffered to oil infrastructure in the entire region, which could take months to assess, repair and get back to normal. That includes gas-linked infrastructure in Qatar, and bombings of oil refineries and terminals across the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. Oil producers in the region have cut production due to lack of storage capacity, amid the vessel build-up in the Persian Gulf. It would tangibly take some time for the production levels to recover even if the hostilities were to cease, and it is not known yet whether the attacks on energy infrastructure in the region have taken some production offline for way longer than envisaged.

Demand side factors

Then there are even more compelling demand-side factors. Many countries, such as Japan, have started to draw down strategic petroleum reserves. Once the supply situation comes close to normalisation, most of these countries would try to get hold of the supplies, primarily to fill up their reserves to the brim and restock in alternate ways. Others, such as India, could start work on expanding their reserves, which have been stagnant for some time now.

As a result of all this, there could be a situation where crude supplies take much longer to come back to normal. Demand is most certainly going to stay above normal, with the result that crude oil prices could remain elevated for at least the next six months beyond when the war draws to an end, an executive with a global shipping liner told The Indian Express.

“We believe that the war has fundamentally changed the demand-supply equation for the next few quarters, versus the popular opinions held at the start of 2026. On the supply side, restart of oil as well as LNG feeding gas fields in the Hormuz countries may be a process running into a few months with uncertainty, with risk of some permanent loss in production levels of some wells. On the demand side, rising focus on energy security as well as depleting strategic inventory may drive demand for both crude oil and LNG to a higher level than envisaged a few months ago,” international brokerage CLSA said in a March report, adding that the medium-term reality after the war could see “higher for longer crude and LNG prices”.

Meanwhile, Dan Jørgensen, the EU Commissioner responsible for energy and housing, said at an informal meeting of EU Energy Ministers on Tuesday (March 31): “As the crisis in the Middle East enters its second month, it is clear that we are facing a very serious situation… We should be under no illusion that the consequences of this crisis for the energy markets will be short-lived. Because they won’t”.

Also, there are restrictions that multiple countries have now placed on the export of refined petroleum products, as well as on the supplies of jet fuel to aircraft refuelling at their airports. That could take longer to withdraw, which could mean tighter supplies and a higher cost of air travel could persist in the months after the war draws to a close.

As part of its conditions to end the war, Iran has made a demand for reparations. While that is unlikely to see the light of day, there is an alternative that Tehran could push. Especially as the US President, in the past few days, has made assertions that the responsibility of opening up the Strait of Hormuz lies with the countries whose oil passes through the waterway.

“All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and TAKE IT… You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”, Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday.

The toll

At this point in time, Iran, while having restricted the passage of ships through this key shipping route, is reported to be allowing ships to squeeze through a tiny waterway closer to that country’s coastline in lieu of, according to a shipping intelligence firm, the payment of a toll. This toll is said to have been around $2 million for vessels to go through and not get attacked. With the US looking the other way, there is a chance that a little detour could potentially continue for some more time after hostilities cease.

Given that in a typical year, the number of tankers that transit the Strait of Hormuz is around 50,000, the $2 million dollar toll for each ship means a neat $100 billion of new revenues for Iran. That’s over a fourth of Iran’s GDP last year. Given that a Very Large Crude Carrier can carry the equivalent of about 2 million barrels of oil, the $2 million toll works out to about $1 a barrel for oil, which is currently retailing for around $100 a barrel and where demand is likely to outstrip supply for an extended period of time.

This is even though the concept of the toll is illegal in the first place under international law, because the United Nations considers the Strait of Hormuz an international strait that is open to all traffic. But Iran is likely to see this as a short-term revenue measure, even if a sanctions waiver is something on the table. The devastation from the war could mean a massive rebuilding exercise, which would have to be funded in some manner. Also, the longer the war continues, the more difficult it will be to wean Iran away from this revenue stream. To be sure, Tehran has formally denied that it levies a toll of any kind on vessels passing through the Strait. It has, however, said that it will not let vessels linked to the US, Israel, and their allies pass through the Strait.

Most analysts predict that oil will still be somewhere between $80 and $100 per barrel for months, given the possible stickiness in the supply and how long it takes for this to unwind. The longer the war continues, the more likely it is that the price could hover above $80 before it goes down to the pre-war figure of $65 per barrel.