Six months after the Gen Z protests unseated the coalition government led by Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli, Nepal went to the polls on Thursday (March 5). The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), with rapper-turned-politician Balendra Shah, 35, as its prime minister candidate, has won 120 of the 165 directly elected seats. He also defeated four-time PM Oli of the Communist Party of Nepal (UML) by about 50,000 votes in his constituency.

Former Ambassador to Nepal, Ranjit Rae, spoke to Anagha Jayakumar about what the results signify, the way forward for the new Nepal government, and what India can expect in its relations with Nepal. Edited excerpts:

What is your first impression of the results coming in right now?

It is a sea change in Nepali politics. This party, the RSP, was formed only in 2022. Balen Shah entered politics as the mayor of Kathmandu just a couple of years ago. This kind of victory was not expected by anybody, perhaps not even the RSP themselves.

There was anger against the Oli regime, particularly after the killings of students on the evening of September 8. There was a lot of anger not only against the Prime Minister, but also against the Home Minister at the time, who was from the Congress party. The Congress party continued to support the Oli government through this Gen Z protest phase.

We are seeing the outcome of what I think is a catharsis for the people of Nepal. They have rejected the older generation of leaders and want to give a chance to a newer generation. It is a disruption in normal politics in Nepal, and there is a whole new generation of faces that is going to sit in the Nepalese parliament.

For live updates on the election results, read here.

Would you say the result is reflective of the demography, that it is a vote for better representation of the youth?

Absolutely. The median age is around 25 years. Almost eight or nine million Nepalese are working abroad in India, the Gulf, and Malaysia. They see developments in other countries and are constantly comparing them with their own country. People are beginning to question issues of jobs and economic growth. In this digital world, everyone is savvy and knows what is happening. Young people have aspirations, and a government that does not respond to them with sincerity faces the kind of heat that the regime has faced.

Politics revolved around these three senior leaders over the last three decades. Very few new faces have emerged, barring the RSP. It became a game of musical chairs where they took turns becoming the prime minister.

The impression that the people got was that the leaders were working for their own political interests rather than for the people. The last coalition was an unusual alliance of the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal (UML). As a result, there was virtually no opposition within parliament; the opposition was on the streets. There was a sense that this coalition was formed to shield the leaders of the two parties from various corruption scandals. These factors contributed to the discontent, despair, and anger reflected in the Gen Z movement.

The number one issue is jobs. There are no meaningful employment opportunities in the country, which is why a third of the people are moving abroad. Nepal has become a remittance economy.

Secondly was the issue of corruption. There were a large number of corruption scandals where cases were not followed up because they involved important political leaders.

The third issue was endemic political instability. There was a sense that the proportional plus first-past-the-post electoral system would not provide a stable government. Every election since 2015 has seen a coalition government. The present election has disproven that thesis because the RSP has won a thumping majority and is headed towards a two-thirds majority.

There was a disconnect between senior leaders, who are in their 70s, and the aspirations of the youth.

Fundamentally, it was about jobs and economic opportunities.

The RSP has only existed for four years. What challenges would the next government have to overcome?

The RSP is a party of very young, educated people who have come into politics with an idealistic frame of mind. It was established four years ago by a popular TV anchor, Rabi Lamichhane.

Having received this huge mandate from the people, there will be a lot of pressure on them to deliver. They will have to show that they are better than their predecessors. I hope they will act as early as possible on the core issues facing the country.

Beyond economic issues, there is the question of the killings of innocent students and bringing the culprits to book. The RSP has released a list of issues that they plan to tackle in the next 100 days. They will have to hit the ground running to show that they mean business.

The constitutional question has also been raised in the run-up to this election. Is the constitution positioned to represent marginal identities, and was that a factor in the present election?

There is a huge backstory to the 2015 constitution, viewed against the backdrop of the 10-year Maoist insurgency and Madhesi andolans. Following the insurgency and andolans, solemn agreements were made by the government of the day and were incorporated into the constitution. This moved the system from unitary to federal, and from a monarchy to a republic. They moved to a more inclusive system with affirmative action and proportional voting to give better representation to marginalised sections of society.

The 2015 constitution is a compromise between different opinions and sections of society in a very diverse country. Sometimes interests have conflicted with each other.

There is a sense that some aspects of this constitution have not been delivered. The question is whether they have not delivered because of the leaders entrusted with implementation, or if there is something in the constitution itself that needs to be reviewed. These are very sensitive issues because there are certain core aspects like republicanism and federalism.

My sense is that nobody is questioning the fundamental features, although elements like the royalists (who have been roundly rejected in this election) want to bring back the monarchy and a Hindu Rashtra.

The new government will have to come out with an action plan for improvements to the constitution. Since they are expected to get a two-thirds majority, they will be able to amend the constitution if required.

It is very significant. Balen Shah’s first political appearance in Madhesh was in Janakpur, the political and spiritual centre of the Madhesh. He wore the Madhesi kurta pyjama, while also wearing the dhaka topi, the symbol of Nepal. He spoke in Maithili and projected himself as the son of the soil.

This captured the imagination of the people in the Terai (the region inhabited by the Madhesi people), where the RSP has virtually swept the region. The idea of a Madhesi prime minister in the capital was unimaginable even 10 years ago. This has been a unifying factor that has neutralised political fault lines.

What do these results mean for the long-time, established parties?

The establishment parties have been reduced to a small presence in the parliament and require a very deep course correction. The Nepali Congress changed leadership midway, but that has not been very successful. The UML under Oli performed very poorly. The Maoist party also fared poorly, though the leader, Prachanda, won his own seat.

These traditional political parties will have to go back to the drawing board and analyse where they went wrong. Parties like the Nepali Congress have been in the vanguard of democracy and brought multi-party democracy to Nepal. There will be a very deep review of these issues.

Finally, what do these results mean for India and for China?

I think we have to recognise that there is a new, younger generation of leadership that has come up in Nepal. Our connections have historically been with the traditional leadership, but we are reaching out to the younger generation of leaders as well. One good thing in this election is that the anti-India sentiment that comes up in all Nepalese elections was non-existent; that’s a very positive thing.

As far as the RSP is concerned, I think they are progressive, smart people who would like their country to progress economically, and they would be very keen to partner with India in this effort. I feel very optimistic about the relationship between India and Nepal under the new leadership.

If you recall, during the Gen Z protests and their aftermath, India strongly supported Sushila Karki’s interim government. We also strongly supported the electoral process and gave a lot of logistical support. Obviously, we will support and respect the outcome. Prime Minister Modi has issued a warm statement of support to Nepal following the current election.

As far as China is concerned, they have been keen to develop a strong, unified communist force in Nepal, which this election has completely rejected. There are worries in Nepal about falling into a heavy debt burden. As neighbours, China and Nepal will have good relations. But I think China’s involvement in bringing communist parties together will likely take a backseat in the foreseeable future.

Ranjit Rae is former Indian Ambassador to Nepal. He has recently edited ‘Shared Bonds, Strategic Interests: India-Nepal Relations in a Turbulent World’ (Simon & Schuster, 2025)