Tamil Nadu Government Formation: Tamil Nadu is preparing for something it has not seen in decades — a coalition government, assembled as much through arithmetic as through adaptation, with early signs of an unconventional power structure, including plans to bring in former IAS officer U Sagayam through a by-election.

With Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) falling short of the majority mark of 118 in the 234-member Assembly, attention has shifted swiftly from celebration to construction. By Tuesday morning, as Vijay visited his party office and convened meetings with newly elected MLAs, the outlines of a coalition were already visible.

The numbers are not complicated. The Congress (which has five seats), the VCK (2), CPI (2) and CPI(M) (2) together offer a bloc of about 11 MLAs — enough to push Vijay comfortably past the halfway mark. It may just be a matter of time before the Left parties and VCK take a decision to exit from the DMK-led alliance. Additional support from parties such as the IUML, DMDK or sections of the PMK could widen that margin further, turning necessity into stability.

Top sources in these parties said there are informal discussions happening with the TVK leadership. Leaders in these parties have begun signalling intent. VCK chief Thol Thirumavalavan said the people appeared to favour a coalition arrangement and indicated that his party and Left allies would continue within a “secular front” in the state. TVK sources say Vijay himself had, even during the campaign, been open to the idea of coalition governance — an unusual stance in a state where power has historically been centralised.

The plan

The proposed arrangement is likely to include the Congress receiving two Cabinet portfolios, with smaller allies getting one each. TVK is expected to allocate four to six ministerial positions to partners, both to secure numbers and to compensate for its own relative inexperience in governance. Apart from former AIADMK veteran K Sengottaiyan, most of Vijay’s winning candidates are first-time legislators.

That lack of administrative depth is already shaping early decisions. Senior bureaucratic and political circles are closely watching reports that former IAS officer U Sagayam, widely known for his anti-corruption stance, may be considered for a legislative role, possibly through a by-election in Tiruchi East, one of the two constituencies Vijay has won and may vacate.

The immediate procedural steps are underway. TVK MLAs are expected to formally elect Vijay as their legislative party leader on Tuesday, after which the Governor will invite him to form the government once majority support is demonstrated. According to party sources, Vijay is likely to seek up to a week to prove his numbers on the floor of the House even as he takes charge of the government by the weekend.