In the West Bengal Assembly, where the BJP enjoys a two-thirds majority and enjoys absolute dominance, the party is keenly watching signs of division unfolding in the 80-member Trinamool Congress (TMC). The reason, BJP leaders say, is the “larger political prize” in Parliament, where the NDA lacks the numbers required for the smooth passage of key Constitutional amendments.

“In West Bengal, the BJP does not need support. Our priority is to get MPs. Once the TMC gets fragmented, its MPs could form a separate group and the BJP can benefit from their support for the numbers required for our ambitious legislation,” a senior BJP leader familiar with the developments said.

Signalling possible trouble for Banerjee, Ritabrata Banerjee — a former CPI(M) leader who joined the TMC in 2018 but was “expelled” earlier this week for “anti-party activities” — was recognised as the Leader of Opposition on Wednesday. Even as Mamata had backed veteran TMC leader Sovandeb Chattopadhyay for the post, Ritabrata staked claim to it claiming the support of 58 of the party’s 80 MLAs. He later said there were at least 60 MLAs in the dissident camp.

“The ongoing tussle within the TMC, in the name of democracy and over democratic functioning, is expected to culminate in a vertical split. The BJP stands to gain because a separate Opposition bloc could support the NDA government in Parliament,” a BJP MP said.

Within BJP circles, the developments in Bengal are being compared to splits in the Shiv Sena and the NCP, which helped the party form the government in Maharashtra in 2022 and the recent split in the AAP, which saw seven of its 10 Rajya Sabha MPs led by Raghav Chadha move to the BJP, taking the NDA’s strength in the 245-member Upper House to 141.

“Like what happened in the Shiv Sena, NCP, and AAP, one group will be with the BJP in Parliament. That would erase the blemish we have carried since the 2024 Lok Sabha polls,” a BJP leader said, referring to the party’s failure to secure a majority on its own despite expectations of a stronger mandate.

The NDA government recently suffered a setback when the Constitution (One Hundred and Thirty First Amendment) Bill, or the Delimitation Bill, which seeks to redraw electoral boundaries and increase the maximum strength of the Lok Sabha from 545 to 850 seats, fell short of the required two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha in April.

The Indian Express reported on June 1 that the government was considering reviving the legislation and also bringing forward the One Nation One Election Bill before the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. With the TMC and the DMK suffering setbacks in the recent Assembly elections, the BJP leadership has also initiated outreach to the DMK, which, according to sources, has indicated a willingness to consider issue-based support to the Centre.

Sources said the DMK, shaken by its defeat and by ally Congress’s decision to join the C Joseph Vijay-led TVK government, could negotiate support for the BJP on specific legislative measures. Sources said the Home Ministry was preparing a revised draft of the Delimitation Bill, with key concerns raised by regional parties such as the DMK expected to be addressed.

When the Bill came up in the Lok Sabha in April, the INDIA bloc voted as a united front, with 230 MPs, including those from the Congress, DMK and TMC, opposing it. The NDA’s tally stood at 298. In the current Lok Sabha, the DMK has 22 MPs while the TMC has 28. Opposition parties had objected to linking the expansion of the Lok Sabha with the implementation of the Women’s Reservation Act, and raised concerns that delimitation could reduce the political weight of southern states.

“If the DMK agrees to support the Bill — whether on simultaneous elections or any other Constitutional amendment — the NDA will need only 42 more votes for a two-thirds majority in the full House of 543. A separate TMC bloc, whether comprising 15, 20 or 25 MPs, will take the BJP significantly closer to that threshold,” said a senior MP involved in the party’s floor management.

A split in the TMC could also ease the BJP’s efforts to secure passage of the One Nation One Election Bill, which seeks to synchronise Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. The legislation is currently under examination by a 39-member Joint Parliamentary Committee chaired by BJP leader P P Chaudhary. Sources said the government wants the Bill passed at the earliest so that its phased implementation can begin before the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.