Though the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections are scheduled for early next year, the Congress has begun identifying seats it plans to contest and has directed All India Congress Committee (AICC) secretaries to submit lists of probable candidates for constituencies the party is likely to seek during seat-sharing talks with ally Samajwadi Party (SP).

The Congress leadership is particularly wary of complications in negotiations after what it views as a “costly experience” in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, where delayed seat-sharing talks and “friendly fights” among INDIA bloc allies cost it the elections.

Sources in the party told The Indian Express that the AICC general secretary in charge of Uttar Pradesh, Avinash Pande, has asked the six party secretaries in the state to prepare two lists. “The first list will include probable candidates for all 403 Assembly seats, while the second will identify around 100-120 seats with stronger prospects,” a source said.

The party has internally classified Uttar Pradesh’s 403 Assembly constituencies into three categories: high potential, marginal and weak. “So far, we have identified more than 100 seats in the first category, around 200 in the second, and about 120 in the third,” a senior Congress leader said.

An AICC secretary involved in the exercise said feedback was being gathered from local units and aspirants. “We are assessing constituencies and speaking to leaders interested in contesting. Most of us are expected to submit our reports to the in-charge in the next few days,” the functionary said.

Party insiders said the Congress aims to contest around 80 seats as part of an alliance with the SP. We will identify around 100-120 seats where we believe we are competitive and eventually settle for about 80. We also do not want seats where the social combination does not favour us. The focus is on winnable constituencies,” a party insider said.

The leadership is also cautious about allowing state-level functionaries too much influence in the process. “There has to be a balance. No one in the UP unit wants an alliance because it reduces both the number of seats and the influence of local leaders. This sentiment was visible in the 2022 Assembly elections when the leadership was persuaded to go solo. We all saw the result,” said a senior Congress leader from Uttar Pradesh based in Delhi.

In the 2022 Assembly polls, the Congress contested all 403 seats but won only two, with its vote share dropping to a historic low of 2.33%.

Pande told The Indian Express on Sunday that preparations for the 2027 polls began six months ago. “The first step was to strengthen the organisation, and that process has been completed. We have identified 2,200 potential candidates for the 403 seats in the state,” he said.

On the alliance with the SP, Pande said discussions would begin at an appropriate time. “When the time for seat-sharing talks comes, the Congress will engage with the SP,” he said.

Keeping options open

While the Congress high command, including Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi, is in favour of continuing the alliance with the SP, a section within the party wants to keep open the option of contesting independently.

“Our alliance with the SP worked very well in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP was brought down to 240 seats nationally and below the majority mark because of that alliance. Why should we disturb that arrangement now?” said a senior Congress leader considered close to Gandhi.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the SP and Congress contested 63 and 17 seats respectively in Uttar Pradesh. Together, the alliance won 43 seats: 37 for the SP and six for the Congress.

Leaders familiar with the party’s strategy said the Congress intends to focus on Muslims, Dalits and Brahmins in the run-up to the Assembly polls. “The Brahmin outreach is linked to a perception of discontent within the community over the Adityanath government’s alleged preference for the Thakur community. Brahmins were traditionally Congress voters in Uttar Pradesh before shifting to the BJP because of Hindutva politics,” a senior leader said.

“The Dalit vote is equally important. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Dalit support benefited the alliance significantly. Muslims, too, remain a key constituency for the Congress,” the leader added.

Muslims account for around 20% of Uttar Pradesh’s population, while Brahmins are estimated to comprise 7-10%. Dalits constitute nearly 20% of the state’s population.

The Congress hopes to conclude seat-sharing negotiations with the SP by August or September to allow candidates enough time to begin campaigning. However, party leaders acknowledge that the talks may not be easy.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as well, the SP agreed to allocate 17 of the state’s 80 seats to the Congress only after prolonged negotiations driven by concerns over a split in Muslim votes. Seat-sharing discussions then stretched until the last minute — a situation both parties are keen to avoid ahead of the Assembly polls.

What will be Priyanka’s role?

Speculation over a leadership reshuffle in the Uttar Pradesh Congress unit is rife. There is growing buzz in both Lucknow and Delhi that the state leadership could see some changes before the elections. While the party leadership has remained tight-lipped, workers and leaders in the state are awaiting clarity.

The role of Wayanad MP Priyanka Gandhi Vadra in the coming election campaign also remains uncertain. Several senior leaders in the state unit are considered close to Vadra and are awaiting a decision from the leadership.

Vadra had led the Congress campaign in the 2022 Assembly elections, in which the party performed poorly. Whether she will again take on a central role in the campaign remains unclear, with state leaders still awaiting direction from the high command.