As the BJP attempted to figure out what went wrong in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, one of the states that must have provided it some solace is Odisha. The party managed to unseat former ally Biju Janata Dal (BJD), which had been in power since 2000, and marked its entry into the first major eastern state.

That dominance has continued and months before the crucial panchayat elections in the state in early 2027, the BJP appears unfazed, with no force visible on the ground that can challenge it. The BJD, however, remains in a precarious position — its dominance of state politics for more than two decades is now a thing of the past  — and the Congress is in doldrums. While former Congress MLA Mohammed Moquim launched a new regional political party called the Odisha Janata Congress, it has failed to have any impact and speculation about a new outfit by the disgruntled BJD leaders also turned out to be a false alarm.

In such a scenario, the panchayat elections will provide an insight into the political landscape of the state, showing if the BJD can arrest its slide and put up a fight against the BJP and if other alternatives can emerge.

The BJP appears to be well ahead of its rivals because of the TINA (there is no alternative) factor. “The government is not popular and the BJP is losing its support on the ground. Naveen Patnaik’s political future, given his age, is uncertain and a third front or a third force is still a non-starter. Odisha is left without a choice,” said author-journalist Ruben Banerjee, who has written a book on Naveen Patnaik.

Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi, a tribal leader from Keonjhar who was a surprise choice for the top post, still has not been able to win people’s hearts, several BJP leaders from the state said. “He still does not come across as a leader who has command over the government or the party. He is accessible, but does not wield power. However, in internal politics, he seems to be emerging as a winner thanks to the support he is getting from the top leadership as well as the RSS,” said an insider.

Some BJP leaders said Majhi has been fighting his “internal rivals” as a number of “senior leaders still have not been able to accept his elevation” to the top post. “There have been attempts from those leaders to control the government and the organisation. But the central leadership has categorically said that the state leaders should be allowed to decide state affairs. However, such interventions continue to happen. The CM has to be combative at that front too,” said a leader.

For Patnaik, the public face of the BJD, the problem continues to be his former secretary V K Pandian, who was blamed by many in the party for the 2024 rout.

Pandian had taken control of the BJD in the run-up to the elections, but the knives came out in the aftermath of the loss, with several BJD leaders citing Patnaik’s excessive dependence on him. The fear of the Tamil Nadu-born bureaucrat-turned-politician becoming Patnaik’s official successor eclipsed the BJD’s electoral prospects, his detractors alleged. With the criticism mounting, Patnaik stepped away from the limelight and receded to the background soon afterwards.

But he was not gone. Pandian, it is learnt, continues to remain close to the former CM and calls the shots in the BJD even now. A party leader said Pandian’s continued presence at Naveen Niwas, the former CM’s residence, puts a “question mark” on the party’s future.

“It is like Naveen Patnaik has pressed the eject button. You do not know where the party is going. However, the party is not crumbling at the ground level. The cadre are there. You just need one promising leader to start the fusion,” said a leader familiar with developments in the party.

Many BJD leaders hold out hope, saying the party held on to its vote share in the 2024 Assembly elections in the face of a BJP surge. The party managed to secure a 40.22% vote share, just marginally ahead of the BJP at 40.07%.

They also take solace from history, holding out hope for a BJD return as Odisha’s political ground has always been a fertile one for regional parties. The Odisha unit of the Swatantra Party was formed in 1962 and the regional All India Ganatantra Parishad led by former CM Rajendra Narayan Singh Deo, formed in 1950, merged with it and the united party ruled the state from 1967 to 1971.  In 1969, Biju Patnaik formed the Utkal Congress party and a coalition in which it had a significant role ruled the state for a brief period from 1971.

The cracks in the BJD were for all to see in the Rajya Sabha elections held in March in which businessman and former Union Minister Dilip Ray, an Independent backed by the BJP, won against the BJD-Congress combine because of cross-voting. The moves of Ray and BJD co-founder Bijoy Mohapatra — both were once close to Naveen Patnaik’s father Biju Patnaik — led to speculation that a new political outfit made up of disgruntled BJD leaders could be in the offing.

However, BJP sources said Ray, a hotelier whose conviction by a CBI court in a corruption case was suspended by the Delhi High Court, is unlikely to upset the BJP apple cart.

“A new regional party can make space in Odisha politics only if it is founded by an acceptable leader. There should be a sincere intention to flourish as an independent party. Otherwise, the BJP will go unchallenged as there is no force visible on the horizon as of now,” said a former MP from the state.