With the Assembly polls done and dusted, the focus has now shifted to the state of the Opposition INDIA alliance. Its key regional constituents, such as the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the DMK, took a severe beating in the polls, even as the BJP continued its winning spree, two years after it faced a setback in the Lok Sabha elections.

The INDIA bloc could not build on the advantage it secured in the 2024 parliamentary battle, and lost momentum after suffering a string of defeats that followed in Haryana, Maharashtra and Delhi.

There are senior INDIA leaders who believe that had Nitish Kumar been made the national convener of the bloc in 2023, they might have posed a formidable challenge to the BJP in 2024. For Bihar, which gave 30 Lok Sabha seats to the NDA, could have swerved the INDIA way, with the possibility of a Bihar’s PM face on the horizon and the Nitish-Lalu Prasad tie-up undergirding the alliance.

These are ifs and buts of history, which are of academic value now. Consider the map of India: Except the Northern tip (Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab) and the Southern states (barring the NDA-ruled Andhra Pradesh), it’s saffron spread all the way.

The space occupied by the regional forces is shrinking. Since many of these outfits had grown by making inroads into the Congress belts, they have feared all along that giving primacy to the grand old party could help it revive at their expense. In reality, it is the BJP which is devouring their space now.

The BJP has pulled off the unthinkable in West Bengal by defeating the Mamata Bannerjee-led TMC. While Arvind Kejriwal has been on the backfoot for some time, his AAP exited the INDIA alliance last year.

The NCP, founded by Sharad Pawar, is considerably weakened after its split in 2023, with the possibility of a merger of its two factions getting derailed by the death of Ajit Pawar in an air crash in January 2026. Similarly, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena is a shadow of its old self after its split in 2022.

The RJD was routed in the 2025 Bihar elections. And following its loss in Kerala, the CPI(M)-led Left parties are, for the first time after 50 years, not in power in any state of the country.

Even the non-INDIA regional parties do not appear to be in a great shape – the BRS is out of power in Telangana, the BJD is in Opposition in Odisha with Naveen Patnaik grappling with health issues. The Janata Dal (Secular) is playing second fiddle to the BJP in the Opposition ranks in Karnataka. Even the JD(U), a key NDA ally, appears more vulnerable in the wake of Nitish Kumar’s shift from the CM’s office in Patna to the Rajya Sabha.

Several of the INDIA allies could become more amenable to sinking their differences and accepting the Congress’s leadership in a “do-or-die” response. Or they could go the other way under pressure from the BJP.

Soon after her defeat, a beleaguered Mamata expressed her resolve to work for INDIA’s unity, shedding her earlier “blow hot and cold” stance towards it.

With the Congress joining hands with Vijay to help him form the government in Tamil Nadu, its erstwhile ally DMK may pull out of the bloc. The M K Stalin-led DMK has accused the Congress of “backstabbing” it.

CM Vijay’s TVK, which has highlighted its commitment to secularism and social justice, could join the INDIA grouping. But this may not be a straightforward affair, given that a rebel AIADMK faction has chosen to rally behind the Vijay government in an apparent bid to offset the Congress’s influence over it. The rebel AIADMK leaders are said to be close to the BJP, which would not want the Congress to become a player in the Tamil Nadu government or consolidate its hold in the state.

Significantly, Vijay skipped the swearing-in ceremony of new Congress CM in Kerala, V D Satheesan, despite being invited to the function. The Tamil filmstar-turned-politician is known to have a large fan base in Kerala, and his presence at this event would have reinforced his partnership with the Congress and signalled a larger southern solidarity.

While the stage was set in 2023-24 for the INDIA bloc to seize on, 2027-28 may well mark the period for the Congress to strike. After its initial dithering over the selection of its CM face in Kerala, the party displayed its old touch once the decision was made – with Satheesan finalising the entire Cabinet of 21 to be sworn in at one go, reaching out to both “KC”(KC Venugopal) and “RC” (Ramesh Chennithala), who were also contenders in the CM race. He also got the outgoing CM Pinarayi Vijayan and state BJP chief Rajeev Chandrasekhar at his swearing-in, striking inclusive notes.

Most of the electoral battles during 2027-28 would not be so much about the regional INDIA partners as the Congress, barring UP where it would be an alliance between Akhilesh Yadav’s SP and the Congress. The Opposition alliance would not be a factor in Punjab, Uttarakhand or Himachal Pradesh.

In Punjab, the Congress as the principal Opposition will square off against the ruling AAP, which seems to be facing “anti-incumbency”. But the BJP is now also eyeing the border state, especially after the merger of the 7 Rajya Sabha AAP MPs with the party. The BJP may want to do an Eknath Shinde on the AAP. It has been holding back-channel negotiations with its former ally Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) too. It is also planning a statewide yatra to highlight the menace of drugs – an issue that has resonance cutting across castes and communities.

Goa and Gujarat, both ruled by the BJP, are also due for polls in 2027. By going it alone there, the AAP may dent the Congress’s prospects by cutting into the anti-incumbency votes.

Forget 2029 for the moment. The INDIA bloc has nothing to lose by naming a convener, having a secretariat, and holding meetings regularly. Despite having weakened, it can still make a difference by fashioning a new narrative.

These are uncertain times, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself appealing to people to tighten belts, adopt austerity measures, and revert to Covid-time habits like work from home, flagging the conflict in West Asia among the biggest crises of this decade.

Experts predict a rise in prices could set off economic distress in the country. It goes without saying that such hardships may have a bearing on elections – depending on how the parties navigate the crisis and shape public discourse in the coming months.

(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 11 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of ‘How Prime Ministers Decide’.)