As counting of votes for the Kerala Assembly elections progresses, strong indications have emerged that the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is poised for a comeback. Several CPI(M) citadels are under strain, with key leaders and ministers trailing in their seats.

Here are the key takeaways:

Vote against the Vijayan factor

One of the factors that worked against the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) is the Pinarayi Vijayan factor. The two-term Chief Minister was the sole face of the LDF’s campaign, effectively turning the election into a referendum on his leadership and style of governance.

Across all 140 seats, the LDF projected Vijayan, eclipsing individual candidates. For voters, the choice became one of supporting or opposing him. Even in constituencies where LDF candidates or sitting legislators had strong track records and clean images, the Vijayan factor appears to have worked against them. Rather than evaluating individual candidates, voters seem to have cast their ballots based on their approval or disapproval of the CM.

Strong anti-incumbency

The results also indicate that the electorate rejected the CPI(M)’s claim that the Vijayan government was not facing anti-incumbency. Even after setbacks in the December local body elections, the party had maintained there was no public resentment.

Mega projects, welfare measures and new financial assistance schemes failed to counter growing voter dissatisfaction. A sense of fatigue among voters appears to have translated into a call for change. Kerala has historically alternated between the LDF and UDF, with 2021 being an exception in the aftermath of the pandemic. Despite a decade of governance, there was a visible urge among voters to unseat the LDF.

Minority votes

The consolidation of minority votes seems to have played a decisive role, with the Congress benefiting from concerns that a third consecutive UDF defeat could create space for the BJP to expand in the state. Voting patterns among Muslims in Lok Sabha elections since 2014 have consistently favoured the Congress, seen as a stronger force than the CPI(M) in countering the BJP.

This trend appears to have carried over into the Assembly polls. Allegations of a CPI(M)-BJP understanding also seem to have worked in the Congress’s favour. The CPI(M)’s attempts to consolidate Hindu votes after its rout in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections may have further alienated Muslims. The party’s perceived soft stance towards Hindu leader and SNDP Yogan general secretary Vellappally Natesan, who repeatedly targeted Muslims, along with tensions in Muslim-majority Malappuram and the IUML factor, contributed to the drift of Muslim votes away from the CPI(M).

Resentment within the Left vote bank

The LDF’s defeat in its strongholds like north Kerala, and the sharp decline in its vote share elsewhere, point to growing resentment within its traditional support base.

This discontent was not evident during campaigning, which was dominated by development narratives and the party’s organisational strength. The verdict suggests that Left voters rejected the CPI(M)’s strategy of prioritising a third consecutive term over ideological consistency.

In its bid to retain power, the party faced allegations of diluting its secular stance by accommodating minority-bashing rhetoric from figures like Natesan. Secular Hindu voters, too, appear to have turned away amid allegations of a tacit understanding with the BJP.

Rejected development narrative

The fact that most Cabinet ministers are trailing underscores the limited impact of the CPI(M)’s development plank. Beyond welfare schemes involving direct cash transfers, the LDF highlighted infrastructure projects, roads and highways, amplified through social media campaigns.

However, the results suggest this narrative failed to translate into votes. Issues such as rising prices, unemployment, farmer distress and wildlife attacks in several constituencies quietly eroded the LDF’s support.

Christians back UDF

The Congress also regained significant support among Christian voters in Central Kerala, a segment that had drifted away in 2021. The BJP’s outreach to Christians appears to have fallen short.

At the same time, a narrowing of differences between Christian and Muslim communities contributed to a consolidation of support for the UDF in several constituencies, strengthening its social base. The controversy surrounding the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA) during the campaign reportedly created hesitation among sections of Christian voters considering a shift towards the BJP.

Sabarimala theft case

The alleged theft of gold from Sabarimala temple artefacts appears to have worked quietly against the LDF, even though the BJP largely sidelined the issue during campaigning.

The CPI(M) countered by alleging that the Congress had misused funds meant for rehabilitating Wayanad landslide victims. While this became a major issue in the final phase of campaigning, it failed to influence voters in Kalpetta and had limited traction elsewhere.

It appears that Hindu voters chose not to split their opposition between the Congress and the BJP, focusing instead on defeating the CPI(M).