The Congress may have got most things right in Kerala by successfully carrying out a generational shift when it picked V D Satheesan as the Chief Minister, but the party still needs to be on guard about social equations. Unless the party can carry out a deft balancing act in government formation, the advantage it earned in the election victory may turn out to be a cause of distress at the national level.

With the BJP’s narrative focusing on the role the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) played in ensuring Satheesan is chosen for the top post, the Congress will now have to tread cautiously as it prepares to unveil the new government on Monday. Like the previous United Democratic Front (UDF) government, this one too will have five ministers from the IUML.

In the past, the resurgence of the IUML or the focus on the role of minorities in Congress-led governments in the state have been accompanied by a crippling effect on the party in the Hindi heartland, where the party is struggling to maintain a toehold after losing power in all the major states. The party’s leaders in Kerala in the past, such as K Karunakaran and A K Antony, were aware of this cause-and-effect phenomenon and ensured that allies did not have a disproportionate say on governance matters.

BJP’s ‘63 less than 22’ jab

With Satheesan chosen over his rivals K C Venugopal and Ramesh Chennithala — one of the factors was the IUML’s backing for the CM-designate — the BJP has delivered a jab at the Congress with its “63 is less than 22” dig. With this, the BJP intends to send across the message that the Congress, with 63 MLAs, is not as powerful as the IUML, which has 22 legislators in the 140-member House. The Congress has cited the sentiments of its workers at the grassroots, public perception, and electoral calculations as reasons for its choice.

With Satheesan’s elevation to the top, the centre of gravity in the party has shifted from the old guard — those who started their political career under Karunakaran, Antony, or Oommen Chandy — to the newer crop of leaders whose politics is more focussed on winning elections than on the long-term impact of their time in power. In the Satheesan government, the IUML is expected to have a significant say with its five ministers. Plus, an estimated 40 of the Congress’s 63 MLAs are from northern and central Kerala — where Muslims and Christians wield influence because of their sizable numbers — while the BJP’s internal assessment claims 34 of the Congress MLAs won with Muslim support.

Congress leaders say the governments Karunakaran and Antony led “consciously and cautiously” ensured that allies, be it the IUML or the Kerala Congress (the latter is backed by Christians), did not call the shots. But the Chandy government of 2011-2016, which had had only four more seats than the Left, faced criticism for allegedly “succumbing” to IUML pressure on several occasions.

Despite the strong mandate this time, the problem for Satheesan is no less. The CM-elect is himself a Nair but was publicly opposed by both the Nair Service Society (NSS), a Nair interest group, and the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP), an influential outfit of the backward Eazhava community. Together, the two communities constitute a large chunk of organised Hindus in the state. However, Satheesan publicly came out against the NSS involving itself in party affairs and has spoken out against SNDP leader Vellappally Natesan’s anti-Muslim remarks. This public stance is what won him the IUML support.

“He has become Chief Minister with the support of minorities, but if he wants to be at the top post with a good governance record, he will have to reach out to these organisations and should be careful not to hurt the Hindu sentiments,” said a BJP leader from the state.

Failure to do so will have ramifications nationally, too, Congress insiders believe, as the BJP has already attempted to brand it as a party of Muslims. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi coined the term “MMC (Muslim League, Maoist Congress)” to describe the Congress last year, its recent performance in Assam, where 18 of the party’s 19 MLAs are Muslims, has strengthened the BJP’s narrative. If this sticks, Congress insiders believe that winning back Hindu votes in the heartland will become an even more onerous task.

Another challenge for Satheesan will be to fix the balance of power within the state Congress. While his rise to the top has weakened the existing factions in the state unit, he has already had to give up the home and vigilance portfolios to his rival Chennithala to maintain peace in the party and the new Cabinet has several pro-Venugopal ministers. The new CM will now have to ensure that factional politics does not derail his government’s administrative agenda.

Left in crisis?

The Congress may have effected a generational change in its leadership, but the Left has failed to do so, falling back on just-ousted CM Pinarayi Vijayan, who has been chosen as the Leader of Opposition.

“For the CPI(M), it is a serious crisis. While the Congress and the BJP have a fresh leadership, it is still stuck with the old leadership; it is being led by 80-year-old Pinarayi Vijayan, who has been at the helm of party affairs for more than two decades,” said a leader.

Left leaders also admitted that they were getting squeezed between the BJP, with its eyes on the votes of the Hindu majority, and the Congress, which has pursued a left-of-centre politics under Lok Sabha Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi. For long, the Hindu votes in Kerala were the domain of the CPI(M) and the BJP’s slow but steady rise in the state poses a challenge on that front.