Global conflicts and rising geopolitical tensions are not only redefining the world order but also driving the demand for arms, as nations seek to shore up their military capabilities.

According to data published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) on March 9, 2026, global arms transfers increased by 9.2 per cent between 2021 and 2025, compared to the previous five-year period (2016–2020), marking the largest increase since 2011–2015.

This trend suggests that states are increasingly prioritising military strength, pointing towards a gradual shift to what noted political scientist Harold Dwight Lasswell described as a world of “garrison states”. 

The concept of “garrison states” is broadly used to refer to states, which are highly militarised and focused on security issues. Introduced by Lasswell in 1941, the concept was originally used to describe societies in which the “specialists on violence are the most powerful group”. 

Hence, a garrison state is characterized by:   

 * “Specialists on violence” exercising overwhelming power and decision-making within state institutions.

* Real or perceived threats defining domestic and foreign policy.

* Security issues prioritised over other socio-political concerns. 

* Most national resources allocated to military purposes.

The concept has been used for various countries exhibiting such characteristics. In view of its prolonged involvement in conflicts related to the Cold War and its military-industrial-complex, the US has been described as a garrison state.

Notably, in the SIPRI report, the US has cemented its position as the world’s largest arms supplier. Its arms exports went up by 27 per cent between 2016–20 and 2021–25, giving it a 42 per cent share of total global arms exports.

Alongside the US, France, Russia, Germany, and China are the top five arms suppliers. Together, these countries account for 70 per cent of global arms exports.

On the other hand, Ukraine, India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Pakistan are the top five recipients of arms. Together, they received 35 per cent of total global arms imports in 2021–25.

Interestingly, an index of Garrison states, developed by Eyal Rubinson, Assistant Professor at the Department of Middle Eastern Studies and Political Science, Ariel University (Israel), includes arms exports and arms imports as a key indicator of militarisation. The other indicators are:

* The amount of armed forces personnel.

* Military expenditure as a share of Gross Domestic Product.

* Terrorist attacks.

* Conflict recurrence.

* Military Participation in Government (MPG) and Military Dimension Index (MDI).

* Civilian Control Scores (CCS).

But the question remains do these trends hint at a troubling evolution of what Lasswell called a world of garrison states?

We would love to hear what you think about this new initiative. Send your comments at ashiya.parveen@indianexpress.com.

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