The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday forecast “normal to above-normal rainfall” in parts of India in the second half of the monsoon season.

Below-normal rainfall is likely in many areas in southern parts of central and adjoining northern peninsular India, northeast and adjoining areas of east India, and some parts of northwest and south peninsular India.

During the first half of the monsoon season, nearly 16 states or Union Territories have received normal or above normal rainfall, The Indian Express reported. July and August rainfall accounted for nearly 70 per cent of the country’s seasonal rainfall.

🔴 “The rainfall over the entire country during the second half of the southwest monsoon season (August to September) 2024 is most likely to be above normal (>106% of Long Period Average),” it said.

🔴 The LPA of rainfall over the country as a whole during the August to September period, based on historical data from 1971 to 2020 is about 422.8 mm.

🔴 For August 2024, the rainfall averaged over the entire country is most likely to be normal (94 to 106 per cent of LPA), according to the IMD.

🔴 The temperatures are also likely to be above-normal in most parts of the country during the month of August. Some areas in the Gangetic plains, central India, and the southeast coast of India will witness normal to below-normal maximum temperatures.

🔴 Moreover, above-normal minimum temperatures are also likely in parts of India except southeast Peninsular India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are likely in the month of August.

🔴 The weather forecast based on the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS), suggests, according to the IMD, that La Nina is likely to develop in the second half of the monsoon season towards the end of August. Currently, neutral ENSO conditions are prevailing in the equatorial Pacific region.

🔴 The monsoon season is also impacted by the Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, which currently prevail over the Indian Ocean, are also likely to continue until the end of the monsoon season.