Russia has just announced that there is finally a country in the world that thinks the Sukhoi Su-57 Felon is a jet worth buying and is signing the Felon's first export contract. But this raises an interesting question. Can Russia produce enough fighter jets to replace its losses from all causes, replace old aircraft that have aged past their service lives (or are approaching obsolesce), and have enough left over to export? The Russian Air Force and the Russian aviation industry have experienced a harsh patch over the last eight years, and there are no signs of letting up.

Exports chocked off by CAASTA

It is now extremely difficult for Russia to sell its fighter jets abroad - and the reason dates from before the Russian Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine. The hammer came down on Russian exports in 2016 as Congress passed the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAASTA). This sanctions any country purchasing advanced weapons like fighter jets and air defense systems) from Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

This immediately led to a cratering of Russian fighter jet sales, with countries like Egypt and the Philippines canceling their orders. And others, like Serbia, did not even consider Russian jets for their MiG-29 replacements. Since then, Russia has essentially had zero fighter jet sales - with expectations like jets built under license in India, Iran purchasing the Su-30S Flankers originally built for Egypt, and now a mysterious buyer for Russia's struggling Su-57 Felon program (possibly the 14 Su-57 Felons Algeria was planning to purchase back in 2020).

Sanctions from Ukraine invasion & production

The invasion of Ukraine led to not only countries being sanctioned for buying Russian, but also Russia itself being sanctioned. This has played havoc with its aviation industry. While Russia can bust the sanctions (anyone can), it leads to delays, product substitutions, and increased costs. In 2022 and 2023, Russia is thought to have produced between 21 and 49 fighter jets annually.

The lack of exports is likely to reduce the number of aircraft Russia can produce. Russia's production of its self-acclaimed fifth-generation Su-57 Felon is laughably low. Whereas the program is now at a stage where production should be ramping up, it appears to have stalled, and Russia only has a couple dozen Su-57 serial production models. And these are fitted with the old Su-27's non-stealthy engine.

Sanctions haven't (and won't) reduced Russia's fighter jet production to zero, but they represent a massive hurdle in sustaining production (let alone ramping up production).

The lower-end expected Russian fighter jet production is similar to the number of Rafale fighter jets France is hoping to ramp up production to. It is only slightly more than 10% of the production rates of the United States and China. At best, Russia can only build fighter jets at a rate of a fifth of that of China, underscoring just how much of a junior partner Russia has become.

According to the open-source Oryx blog, Russia has lost 132 fixed-wing aircraft (including damaged and non-combat losses). Of these, 21 were transport, AWACS, strategic bombers, or other non-fighter aircraft. This means that Russia is independently confirmed to have lost 111 fighter jets (not every loss can be independently verified, so the actual number is likely higher).

Additionally, 54 of these losses are from aircraft no longer in production (Su-25s, Su-24s, Su-27s, MiG-29s, and MiG-31s). This leaves around 67 losses (including three identified fighters) from fighters in production (Su-34s, Su-35s, Su-30s, Su-57s). Assuming a production rate of 25 of these jets in 2022, 35 in 2023, and 35 (in 2024 - using 2023's production numbers until new estimates become available), then Russia will have more than compensated for these losses.

Wear and tear

However, battlefield losses are not the biggest problem for the Russian Air Force. It is not enough for Russia to simply replace its destroyed aircraft, as its existing fleet is aging out and being withdrawn from service. It is possible the Russian combat fleet fell by around 25% during the war, mostly due to wear and tear.

Russian/Soviet fighter jets are far less durable than their American counterparts, with far fewer serviceable flight hours. Many of Russia's old MiG-29s, MiG-31s, Su-24s, and Su-25s have seen not only battlefield attrition but also have seen increased flying hours in the war, using up their remaining flight hours.

While Russia's production may be able to sustain its fleets of Su-34s, Su-30s, and Su-35s (all the Flanker family), it is not enough to sustain the Russian Air Force fighter fleet at large. This means (barring some serious service life extension programs or reactivating old retired airframes) the Russian fighter jet fleet is set to continue shrinking. This issue is faced by many air forces (including the United States Air Force, which is also shrinking). However, the combination of a declining industrial base, the lack of foreign investment from India and other nations, the wartime losses, and the wartime wear and tear have put the Russian Air Force's decline into overdrive.

Russia may still export some fighter jets in limited numbers, but for now, it is a shadow of its former self. Making matters worse, without India and other countries investing in its development of new jets, it is falling evermore behind. All the while, new entrants are emerging in the market - like China with its J-10C and FC-31 and South Korea with its KF-21 and these look set to steal more of Russia's former market.