Do sanctions work? Yes, international sanctions may not be able to stop Russian production of new fighter jets, but they can slow it down and drive up the costs. A new article from the British news outlet, The Telegraph, suggests that Russia's production of their new supposedly stealthy and fifth-generation Sukhoi Su-57 "Felon" fighter jets has stalled. This comes after Russia apparently shot down their own massive S-70 Okhotnik-B (Hunter-B) 'loyal wingman drone' - in one of its first tests over the battlespace in Ukraine.
Sukhoi Su-57 Felon production falls
On October 9th, the Telegraph ran an article written by David Axe that stated Russia's production of new Su-57s appears to have ground to a halt - at least for now. This has been attributed to Russia's dependence on Western technology. In general, Russia has struggled to design and invent modern military equipment that does not depend on importing Western components.
"It’s apparent that, with targeted sanctions, the United States and its allies have blunted the Russian air force’s modernization. Scrutinizing Russian documents, Frontelligence Insight discovered some of the main bottlenecks, including an attenuator called the WA36 and power supplies designated PLR7 60-12 and EA-PS 3150. These components are part of the MPPU-50, a German-made device for calibrating the communications systems on the Su-57." - The Telegraph
The Telegraph quoted Frontelligence Insight (a Ukrainian analysis group) as saying “It’s clear that Russia’s military industry heavily depends on Western components, particularly in electronics... the production of the Su-57 is in jeopardy.” The group notes that Russia has to illicitly import MPPU-50s other other components through third parties and while smuggling the parts is possible, its still proving a bottleneck for the jet's production.
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Russia's lackluster 'fifth' generation fighter
The Su-57 is intended to replace Russia's aging MiG-29s and Su-27s. It is also meant to be Russia's answer to America's F-22 Raptor (although its radar cross-section is orders of magnitude larger). The Kremlin has placed an order for 76 production jets. Estimating the number produced annually is difficult, but it is likely that 10-11 were produced in 2022 and 2023.
The numbers delivered in 2024 are thought to be somewhere in the single digits. But this shouldn't be happening, as the factory gains more experience with building the jets, production should be ramping up - not stalling (or even falling). It's possible Russia has around 30 of the jets - with around a third being test models.
India had intended to purchase the Su-57 but has since pulled out of the program. Russia has struggled to find any international buyers for its jet (with perhaps Algeria being one of the few countries to show an interest).
An in-auspicious debut
Some early reports suggest it was a Russian Su-57 that shot the S-70 Okhotnik-B (Hunter-B) drone down the other day. The S-70 is believed to be designed to work alongside the Su-57 as a loyal wingman drone (something similar to the US Air Force CCA program). If true, this would be an ironic first recorded air-to-air kill for the hyped Su-57 fighter - its own buddy drone.
Earlier this year, the Su-57 appeared to be the first recorded combat loss of a fifth-generation fighter jet after Ukrainian drones damaged or destroyed one on the ground. Additionally, Russia has lost two other Su-57s (a test model and a production model) to crashes.