Summary

• The US Air Force will divest 250 aircraft and procure 121 by 2025 - leaving a deficit of 129.
• The Air Force plans to retire F-22A Raptors, shifting towards modern aircraft like B-21 Raiders.
• Overall, the plan involves switching to fewer yet more expensive and more capable systems, including advanced drones.

The Department of Defense has submitted its 2025 Budget Request and much can be learned from trawling through this long document, but one thing that stands out is that the Air Force is continuing to shrink. However, numbers do not tell the full picture; while the Air Force will be smaller, it will also be more modern and capable. It should also be noted that the document is a request - some of its proposals for divestment may be denied. On the surface, it may seem strange that Air Force numbers are falling in an era of great power competition.

Planned USAF 2025 divestments and procurements

"The Air Force is acutely posturing manpower from the divestiture of legacy platforms such as the A-10 and F- 15Es and recapitalizing the manpower towards the planning to procure modern aircraft such as the B-21 Raiders. The repurposed manpower ensures mission generation and accomplishment remains steady during these transitions." - DoD

In all, the Air Force is planning to divest some 250 aircraft and procure 121 aircraft, leaving a deficit of 129. Retiring 250 aircraft is massive - in total, this is more firepower than most country's air forces. This will drop the number of aircraft in the Air Force below 5,000 for the first time. With around a quarter of remaining A-10s earmarked for retirement, the end for the Warthog seems nigh.

Interestingly, this plan includes retiring a batch of fifth-generation F-22A Raptors. It is unclear if the Air Force will be permitted to retire the F-22A Raptors - after all, they were saved from retirement in 2024. In a world where America is already retiring fifth-generation fighters, the Russians have yet to show they have their fifth-generation fighter (the Su-57) in operational service.

One thing to note is that many of these aircraft are likely to head to the boneyards - such as the 309th Aerospace Maintenance and Regeneration Group at the Davis–Monthan Air Force Base. There they will be mothballed while some will be stripped for parts. Many of these aircraft could theoretically be brought back into service if the need were to rise. Some aircraft could be sold off to US allies. For example, there are suggestions that America's iconic A-10 Wartahogs may have finally found an international buyer.

A money problem

Much is said about how much money the United States spends on its military, but as measured as a percentage of GDP, it is historically low. According to the DoD, the United States is projected to spend 3% of GDP on the military in Fiscal Year 2025. This is only slightly above the low reached in the post-Cold War pre-9/11 low of 2.9% in 1999. The US was spending 11.4% during the height of the Korean War, 8.6% during the height of the Vietnam War, 5.9% during the Reagan era of the Cold War, and 4.5% during the height of the Iran/Afghanistan War.

Even fewer sixth-generation fighters

However, comparatively restrained military budgets are not the full story of why the United States Air Force is shrinking. The Air Force has been shrinking for a very long time and is expected to continue to do so. Legacy 4th and 4.5th generation fighters such as F-16s, F-15s, and perhaps even fifth-generation F-22s will not be replaced one-for-one by the NGAD sixth-generation fighter currently under development.

The trend from mass to fewer but much more expensive and infinitely more capable and survivable systems comes at a cost - numbers. Sometimes a significant amount of aircraft is needed, as has been seen in the Ukraine War. But there is essentially no way to produce sixth-generation fighters in the number of fourth-generation fighters that have been built. One way the Air Force is attempting to remedy this and restore some sort of mass back to the battlefield is with the Collaborative Combat Aircraft program, a similar concept to the 'loyal wingman'. It has just been announced that General Atomics's XQ-67 has been selected for Increment 1 of the CCA program.

The plan is to mass-produce advanced AI-driven drones with the ability to shoot, scout, and perform a number of tasks for the sixth-generation fighter. From the emerging concept of the CCA, it seems future sixth-generation fighters will be more of a flying command center than a traditional fighter.

This means the number of manned aircraft will continue to fall, but the introduction of drones may allow overall aircraft numbers to stabilize or even grow in the long-term future. It also remains to be seen what the impact of increased competition with China will have on Air Force numbers going forward.