In August 2017, CAATSA (Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) came into force. Since then, it has been devastating for Russia's ability to sell fighter jets and helicopters in the international market. CAASTA is aimed at imposing US sanctions on countries that purchase Russian, Iranian, and North Korean weapons. Russia's most popular fighter jets for export are the Su-27 derivatives - the Su-30 and Su-35 ( Russia's MiG-35 didn't sell at all).

Non-Russian alternative fighter jets offen include the French Rafale, the European TyphoonEurofighter, the Chinese J-10, the American F-16 Block 70/72, and the Swedish Gripen ( the South Korean KF-21 is also likely to become a competitor).

What CAATSA is

CAATSA is an American act designed (among other things) to limit Russia's influence around the world and to chock off its military exports (such as fighter jets). Fighter jet exports are not only beneficial to the Russian industry, but they also serve to increase Russian influence in countries and militaries around the world (fighter jet exports are incredibly complicated and almost a 'marriage' of sorts between the parties).

CAATSA is likely dissuading countries that tend to hedge themselves from purchasing Russian fighter jets (e.g., Malaysia, the Philippines, Egypt, and Serbia).

Russia now has few options to sell its jets. With or without the act, it is unlikely the Chinese Air Forcewill order any more Russian fighter jets as its domestic fighter jet production is maturing. In some respects, China appears to be more advanced in jet design than Russia. China now produces perhaps five times more fighter jets annually than Russia.

India is also on the path to producing its own jets domestically, although much remains to be done.

This is likely to leave Russia with a very small and very loyal (or very desperate in the case of Iran) clientele willing to brave US sanctions to purchase Russian jets. Russia's remaining pool of clientele is likely already-heavily-sanctioned countries like Belarus, Iran, and Venezuela (if they can find the money) and perhaps other countries like Kazakhstan, Algeria, Vietnam, and India (for locally produced under-license fighter jets).

In 2018, Vietnam ordered 12 Yak-130 combat training jets from Russia, but the US is also reportedly wooing the country, and Vietnam is considering purchasing US F-16 fighter jets.

CAASTA in action

Russia has long been the world's second-largest weapons exporter after the United States, but in 2023, SPIRI showed that its exports had imploded by 53% over a five-year period. It only had 78 combat aircraft on export order and zero military helicopters (meanwhile, the US had over 1,000 combat aircraft on export order). This is due to many reasons.

Reasons for Russian fighter jet export decline:

• Threat of US sanctions under CAASTA
• Increasing competition (e.g., French Rafale, upcoming South Korea KF-21)
• Declining Russian military technological edge
• China & India developing domestic industries
• Fall out of Invasion of Ukraine (turbo-charged the decline)

Egypt had agreed to purchase Sukhoi Su-35S fighter jets from Russia but was later compelled to cancel the order. These jets are now being sold to Iran. The Philippines and Indonesia were also compelled to cancel their orders for Russian military helicopters and fighter jets.

"We’ve made clear that if those systems [Russia Su-35S fighter jets] were to be purchased [by Egypt], the CAATSA statute would require sanctions on the regime," Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in 2019

Example cancelled Russian fighter jet & military helicopters:

• Egypt: Canceled 24 Su-35S order
• Indonesia: Canceled 11 Su-35S order
• The Philippines: Canceled planned Mil Mi-17 helicopter order

"In February 2018 the Indonesian Defense Ministry had announced a $1.1 billion contract for the acquisition of 11 Russian Su-35 heavyweight fighters, with deliveries expected to begin by the end of 2019 and additional purchases considered likely. Intervention by the United States however, using the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), effectively stalled and then cancelled the deal." - The Diplomat in 2022

However, the effect on Russian fighter jet sales is not so much on canceled orders as it is on orders that were killed before any announcement. For example, Serbia has announced it is purchasing French Rafale jets to replace its existing MiG-29 fighter jets as Russian jets are now untenable (a fact made worse by Russia's invasion of Ukraine).

According to The Diplomat, CAATSA was first applied in September 2018 against China for its order of $4 billion worth of Russian Su-35s and S-400 SAMs (an order that predated the act being placed in 2015). Separately, the United States kicked Turkey out of the F-35 program for purchasing S-400s (although this wasn't necessarily directly due to the act).

The Indian exception

The US does allow for certain exceptions - for example, the US exempted India from sanctions when it purchased the Russian S-400 SAM system, saying that India was a special case and had a special need. The US may also exempt Kazakhstan and Algeria as special cases, but that is unconfirmed.

India has long relied on Soviet/Russian military equipment and is a country that refuses to take geopolitical sides (it was a founding member of the Non-Alligned Movement). While the US has been reaching agreements for India to domestically assemble its C-130J Super Hercules under license, India is reportedly also in talks with Russia to restart locally licensed Su-30 production for export in an apparent effort to help Russia evade the sanctions.

Nevertheless, it is also clear that India is taking steps to distance itself from Russia and is relying increasingly on Western imports and domestic production.