According to US officials, Russian compensation to North Korea for supplying much-needed military aid will include early fourth-generation Su-27 Flanker and MiG-29 Fulcrum fighter jets. For now, it is unclear how many will be delivered or when North Korea will receive them. It is also unclear how many service life flight hours these old jets will have ( US-built fighter jets are far more durable, boasting much longer service life flight hours).

Russia to supply aging fourth-generation fighters to North Korea

According to Admiral Samuel Paparo (the commander of the Indo-Pacific Command), North Korea is to receive MiG-29 Fulcrum and Su-27 Flanker fighter jets from Russia as part of its compensation for its military aid to Russia. It is likely North Korea wants other military capabilities from Russia as well. Aviation Week stated these capabilities "could include ballistic missile technologies, especially reentry vehicles, as well as new submarine technologies and air defenses."

"The top U.S. officer in the Pacific says Russia has reached an agreement with North Korea to send MiG-29 and Su-27 fighter aircraft to Pyongyang in return for that nation deploying soldiers to help with Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine." - Aviation Week

The Russian Air Force is known to be short on pilots and has lost large numbers of close air support Su-25 Frogfoots (a rare example of a fighter jet flown by both North Korea and Russia).

Reports have emerged that North Korea was sending pilots to Russia - it was previously unclear if they were there to aid the Russian Air Force or receive training on new aircraft to be supplied to North Korea. There was speculation that North Korea could be the one sending aid to the struggling Russian Air Force. North Korea could potentially supply pilots and Su-25 Frogfoots.

According to FlightGlobal's 2024 report, the Russian Air Force has around 240 MiG-29s in service (including six of the upgraded MiG-35 variant), plus another 13 used for training. The Russian Navy has another 18 MiG-29s in service, with another 4 used for training (the MiG-29K is one of the types of fighter jets adapted to operate off Russia's troubled aircraft carrier). It should be noted that while the MiG-29 remains in service in many countries worldwide (e.g., Poland, Ukraine, India, Egypt, and many others), it is largely retired from the Russian Air Force.

Russian MiG-29s have been largely absent from the frontline in Ukraine (although a few have been destroyed on the ground by Ukrainian strikes). Ukraine is forced to rely on older fighter jets, including aging MiG-29s, Su-27s, and Su-24s.

Russia released an upgraded MiG-29 - the MiG-35 as an export aircraft. Russia purchased a token 6 MiG-35s for an aerobatic team. However, no export orders materialized for its MiG-35, leading to commentators calling the program a failure. More broadly, Russia has struggled to sign new contracts with any country after the US passed the CAASTA Act in 2017, sanctioning countries purchasing Russian fighter jets and aid defense systems. This has resulted in a collapse of Russia's fighter jet export business, with only a few remaining customers like (also sanctioned) North Korea and Iran (India builds Russian fighters domestically under license).

The Su-27 Flanker is being retired from Russian service. In December 2022, the English-language Russian website Top War wrote, "According to official data, by the end of 2020, the almost complete decommissioning of the Su-27P and Su-27SM aircraft, which were ending their flight life, was expected."

According to FlightGlobal, the Russian Air Force has 365 Su-27/30/35 Flankers in service and 38 Su-27s used for training. The Russian Navy has another 44 Su-27/30s in service, with another 3 used for training. Su-34s are listed separately with the Russian Air Force having 134 in-service.

The actual number of Su-27-family jets in service is likely lower than the FlightGlobal estimate due to losses, retirements, higher combat-tempo wear and tear, and low production rates. Russia's Su-34/30/35 production rates were likely enough to offset combat losses of their respective types but were not likely enough to offset many more aircraft using up their flight hours and being withdrawn from service.

Meanwhile, Indonesia is also planning to retire its aging Su-27 fighter and switch to more modern Western aircraft (including the French Dassault Rafale).

Unclear how old fourth-gen fighters will benefit North Korea

North Korea already operates aging MiG-29 Fulcrums (which it received just before the collapse of the USSR). Still, otherwise, most of its existing air force is an eclectic collection of veritable museum pieces. The North Korean Air Force comprises MiG-17s, MiG-21s, MiG-19s, MiG-23s, and various Chinese copies of contemporary Soviet jets.

MiG-29s (perhaps upgraded versions) and Su-27s would greatly boost the North Korean Air Force. Indeed, according to Aviation Week, Admiral Paparo termed them "formidable" assets.

MiG-29s and Su-27s remain in Ukrainian service, where they remain useful in that conflict. Russia's main tactical fighter jets are the Su-34/30/35 - upgraded variants of the Su-27. Russia has also been unable to use its tactical fighter jets effectively as the Russian Air Force has proven itself largely incapable of SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defense) and DEAD (Destruction of Enemy Air Defense) with Ukraine's air defense network keeping the Russian Air Force at bay. The British Ministry of Defence recently noted this and said that Russia is using its tactical fighter jets as little more than "airborne artillery."

It is perhaps somewhat confusing why North Korea would invest its limited resources into these aging platforms. The situation is entirely different for North Korea. North Korea's adversaries are the United States, South Korea, and potentially Japan. These countries are equipped with the latest 5th and 4.5th generation fighter jets. Old Soviet 4th generation fighters would not pose a significant threat.

Additionally, North Korean high-end air defense would not likely pose a significant threat to F-35s. For example, the British recently confirmed Israel destroyed all of Iran's Russian-supplied S-300 SAMs in a single night in a mission spearheaded by US-supplied F-35Is (the Israeli version of the F-35A). Israel apparently did not suffer any losses.

Meanwhile, the British Ministry of Defence released a statement confirming Ukraine has destroyed key elements of Russia's once-taunted S-400 SAM system in Crimea (another was destroyed by US-supplied ATACMS missiles in Kursk). It noted this was the second such system Ukraine destroyed in November.

North Korean military aid to Russia

In the last year, North Korea has been observed increasing the amount of aid given to Russia in support of its struggling invasion of Ukraine. However, there has been a lot of speculation about what North Korea could be getting back from Russia in return (e.g., there are reports of Russia supplying oil to North Korea).

Admiral Samuel Paparo (speaking at the Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California) also reconfirmed on December 7th that North Korea has deployed soldiers to Russia. However, he noted this was without Russia's prompting. Aviation Week wrote, "Admiral Samuel Paparo...said that North Korea provided the soldiers to Russia without prompting—the deployment was offered and accepted."

In recent times, the media has been abuzz with reports of thousands of North Korean soldiers being sent to Russia's frontline region of Kursk. Official sources in Ukraine, the United States, and South Korea have confirmed this. While they seem to have been there for a while now, third-party evidence (e.g., videos, POWS, etc.) of the North Koreans engaged there remains sparse.

Admiral Paparo seems to have explained why there is this apparent lack of third-party evidence emerging from the heavily filmed frontlines. He stated that while they have been deployed to combat zones, the North Korean soldiers are not in active combat. It remains unclear if or when they will be used in combat.

North Korea has also supplied Russia with many ballistic missiles ( some of which are believed to have been dramatically destroyed after Ukraine targeted storage bases deep inside Russia).

Arguably, the most significant North Korean aid to Russia has come in the form of artillery shells. According to The Times, North Korea now supplies around half of Russia's artillery shells and is thought to be supplying around 3 million annually. The Russian Army is an artillery-centric army, and the thought of running low on artillery shells was previously unthinkable.

According to The Economist (citing Ukrainian officials), North Korean artillery shipments to Russia have reached 2.8 million a year - a number just 100,000 shy of Russia's annual production of 2.9 million shells. Russia began with massive Soviet-era stockpiles of artillery shells, but it has now all but burned through those stockpiles making it now dependent on North Korea to sustain its fire rate.

Conclusion

In conclusion, North Korea has become a key enabler for Russia to maintain its tempo of operations (particularly in supplying artillery shells). North Korea expects a lot in return, including MiG-29 and Su-27 fighter jets. However, given that North Korea's adversaries overmatch of early 4th-gen fighters, it is unclear how useful they will be (even though they are a major upgrade over existing North Korean aircraft).