At Airshow China (officially the China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition), China officially unveiled its new J-35A fighter jet (commentators quickly pointed out that it obviously draws from the F-35). Russia also brought its newest fighter jet, the self-acclaimed fifth-generation Sukhoi Su-57 Felon fighter jet, only to be ridiculed in China for its shoddy workmanship.
Chinese mock Russia's '5th-generation' Su-57 Felon
Russia brought two Su-57 Felon fighter jets to the airshow, one serial production Su-57 that flew there under its own power, and one prototype Su-57 for static display flown in on an An-124 cargo aircraft. This is an early pre-2019 prototype with the registration number T-50-4 and serial number 054.
Chinese spectators were able to inspect the prototype Su-57. Videos emerged online of Chinese visitors given unrestricted access being amused by the many screws and bolts visible on the aircraft. By contrast, none are visible on Lockheed Martin F-35s as they return a radar signature.
|
Sukhoi Su-57 |
|
|---|---|
|
First flight: |
2010 |
|
Enter service: |
2020 |
|
Role: |
Stealth multirole fighter |
|
Number ordered: |
76 |
|
Operators: |
Russian Air Force |
|
Number lost: |
3 (two crashed and one destroyed on the ground) |
Chinese criticism centered on the aircraft's fuselage panels being attached to the frame with a large number of bolts (with some of the heads protruding above the surface), its tail section attached with a hodgepodge of screws and bolts (including Philips screws, cross head screws, straight head screws, and hexagonal screws), and its wings and doors the internal weapons compartment being poorly fitted.
In a video published five months ago, Alex Hollings from Sandboxx News noted the visible Philips head screws on the Su-57. He acknowledged that these were visible only on the prototypes - but added that these prototypes had actually seen combat service in Syria. Additionally, serial Su-57s don't have the advanced stealth 'paint' that the F-35s do.
Making matters worse for the Su-57, Russia has so far been unable to fit the new stealth-optimized Saturn AL-51 engine into it. Instead, the Su-57s produced still fly using Russia's old, unstealthy Saturn AL-41F1 after-burning turbofan engine.
Still, it would be wrong to dismiss the Su-57 as a bad aircraft (at least if it can be produced at scale). While there may be no comparison between the Felon and the F-35 Lightning II or the F-22 Raptor, it is a major improvement over the aging MiG-29 Fulcrum and Su-27 Flanker fighter jets it is replacing.
Russia has been cautiously using the Su-57 in combat in Ukraine (where one was destroyed on the ground in a drone strike). It appears Russia has used them out of range of air defense (and not penetrating air defense like stealth aircraft are designed to), and the only known air-to-air kill so far is the Su-57 destroying its own loyal wingman drone.
What Are The Russian Combat Aircraft Production Rates?
Russian combat aircraft production rates seem to be sufficient to sustain war losses at the rates so far seen.
China mocks Russia's Kinzhal 'hypersonic' missile
Another area where Chinese commentators have mocked Russia's newest military equipment as sub-standard and outdated is Russia's new Kh-47M2 Kinzhal 'hypersonic' missile (NATO reporting name, AS-24 Killjoy). Russia claimed this missile was impervious to current and future Western air defense.
In January 2024, Rand wrote about Chinese evaluations of the Kinzhal, "Multiple problems are identified. The Kinzhal is criticized in this Chinese assessment as outdated 1980s Cold War technology that is not genuinely hypersonic in nature. Due to features of the Kinzhal's design, 'its ability to perform long-distance gliding in the atmosphere falls short.' Analyzing its maneuverability, the Chinese analyst observes, 'The degree to which it can change its ballistic trajectory cannot be compared with that of a real hypersonic missile, and it seriously lacks the ability to maneuver laterally.'"
The Kinzhal is criticized in this Chinese assessment as outdated 1980s Cold War technology
The US-supplied Patriot SAMs in Ukraine have repeatedly shot the missiles down, including beating off a saturation attack on the Patriot without being hit. Many commentators point out that the Kinzhal is little more than an air-launched Iskander-M missile with little ability to maneuver and that travels at speeds similar to those of other ballistic missiles (most ballistic missiles reach hypersonic speeds at certain stages of their flights).
While Russia claimed it could travel at speeds up to Mach 10, the US Army revealed it was only traveling at Mach 3.6 when it was engaged by the Patriot battery (hypersonic speed is typically considered Mach 5 and above).
How Many Fighter Jets Does China Produce Annually?
China may be able to produce around 240 fighter jets annually made up of J-10s, J-16, and J-20s.
The massive Sino-Russian rebalancing
The last few decades have seen a major rebalancing of the relationship between China and Russia. During the Cold War, the two were enemies (after the Sino-Soviet Split). They fought a border war in 1969 and fought a parallel (mostly forgotten Cold War) in which China worked to undermine the USSR in Cambodia, Afghanistan, and elsewhere.
However, the USSR was always the dominant player, and China had to content itself with being mostly restricted to producing Soviet copies under license. In 1990, the Soviet economy was estimated to be worth $2.7 trillion (in nominal terms), while China's in 1991 was only $415 billion. Today, China is estimated to be worth around $18 trillion, while Russia's economy is just $2.1 trillion (about the same as Brazil's).
|
Chinese fighter jet production: |
2024 (est): |
Russian fighter jet production: |
2023 (est): |
|---|---|---|---|
|
J-20 Mighty Dragon: |
approx. 100 |
Su-30SM: |
4-8 |
|
J-10C Vigorous Dragon: |
approx. 40 |
Su-34/M: |
8-10 |
|
J-16 Hidden Dragon: |
over 100 |
Su-35: |
8-10 |
|
J-11s & J-15s (Flanker derivatives): |
unclear |
Su-57: |
8-11 |
|
Total: |
over 240 |
Total: |
28-49 |
With China's economic growth have come major technological changes in the defense sector. Russia's military technological edge over China is progressively evaporating, and China is increasingly overtaking Russia in many areas. One major limitation for China has been its dependence on Russian jet engines. However, this appears to have changed in recent years.
In the 2010s, China ordered what could prove to be its final batch of Russian fighter jets (the Su-35). As its jets improve and overtake Russia's capabilities, it has no reason to purchase more. As time passes, Russia is increasingly the junior partner in the relationship with little to offer China—China seems not to even have much interest in Russia's natural gas.
