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I have the pleasure to work with clients from Mumbai to San Francisco, and from Oslo to Cape Town. And this has recently provided me with telling insights about how their companies plan to react to the upcoming macroeconomic crisis.
To begin with, not all regions of the world have been hit the same way, and some haven’t been hit yet. While I saw European engineering managers in tears fearing layoffs in January, U.S. teams are just starting to be careful but aren’t there yet.
One CIO told me yesterday that she “believes there is a new pattern, where EMEA is hit by a crisis and the U.S. follows with about four months’ delay.”
It is definitely true that “all economic warning lights are flashing red.” The dip is coming. The question is when. My gut feeling is that Q3, Q4 and Q1 in 2023 will be very tough in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and Asia-Pacific (APAC), while the United States will face tougher times in the first three quarters of next year.
So far so (not) good, but the more interesting question is how the situation for us as engineering/platform teams change. How are C-level executives reacting to the dark clouds? Are they contracting budgets? Are they cutting jobs? Where are they investing, if at all?
I’m observing two key strategic approaches: blind fear and cautionary responsibility. The former can irreversibly destroy the culture and productivity of an engineering team forever. The latter can actually improve both substantially. Winning teams are formed in times of crisis.
Explaining the blind fear approach is intuitive: Managers just start freezing everything and, worst case, start firing. No investment in improving productivity and workflows. No communication that takes the team along and articulates, “We need to unite and pull in one direction to beat the crisis together.” These teams are doomed to fail.
It’s been proven for years that teams in the top quartile of developer velocity outperform other organizations four to five times in terms of revenue growth. Meaning if you innovate fast, you grow fast in revenue. You beat the crisis. It’s simple.
It’s helpful to recall what the key value drivers for engineering and general management are, especially in times of crisis.
So following the tactic of cautionary responsibility, I always have the same playbook:
It’s a tough call, but one that can cost you a lot if you get it wrong. If you need help or want to talk, I’d be happy to. Good luck in the next few weeks. Managing the good times is easy. Wartime management is what separates you from the pack.
If you are wondering how to get going, the platform engineering YouTube channel is a great place to start diving into the topic.