Middle East

OVERVIEW

The Middle East Team assesses wars that involve or threaten the United States and its allies and partners in this region. ISW’s first portfolio followed the US war in Iraq from the Surge in 2007 through the withdrawal of US troops from the country in 2011. ISW’s Middle East Team then forecasted the rise of ISIS while assessing Iraq’s political and military dynamics. The team assessed the Syrian Civil War and Russia and Iran’s support to the Assad Regime; the expansion of ISIS as a global phenomenon; and providing a running assessment of Operation Inherent Resolve, the US and coalition military operation against ISIS. This team has also assessed the U.S. military engagement in Afghanistan from 2009 until the Taliban takeover in 2021.

ISW partners with the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute to analyze the strategic objectives and campaigns of state actors such as Iran and non-state actors such as ISIS.

After the Hamas attack against Israel in October 2023, the team has focused on assessing Iran and its Axis of Resistance in order to inform US strategy and the requirements to defend US allies in the region. ISW and CTP define the “Axis of Resistance” as Iran’s transnational alliance of state, semi-state, and non-state actors across the Middle East, including Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and the Houthis. The Middle East portfolio continues to address the aftermath of the Syrian Civil War, the establishment of an interim government in Syria, and Iranian-backed attempts to wage an insurgency against it.