Assessing Russia’s Failed Objectives in Ukraine

On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, hoping to seize Kyiv “in three days” and enshrine a pro-Russian government in the capital.

Four years later, Ukraine is nowhere close to defeat. Ukrainian forces — still outnumbered — thwarted the Russian advance on Kyiv in the first weeks of the invasion and continue to reclaim their territory. Ukraine’s successful counterattacks have led Russia to deflate its stated objective to Donetsk Oblast, a heavily fortified region of Ukraine which Russian forces have not been able to seize since 2014. According to ISW estimates, Russia now occupies 20 percent of Ukraine and only seized 0.8 percent in 2025.

Even after major setbacks, Russian generals routinely inflate their battlefield gains. Putin refuses to accept Russia’s current gains and insists on prolonging the war. ISW assesses that Putin will not compromise on his goal of occupying all of Ukraine until his military is defeated on the battlefield, something that Ukraine can still accomplish with US and European support.

ISW has tracked the political, economic, and battlefield implications of the war in the daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment along with its globally recognized static and interactive maps. Since 2025, ISW has closely tracked Russian efforts to consolidate control in occupied Ukraine, as well as the consequences of Russian drone innovations and other technological adaptations.

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