Forecasting Skills: See the Future Before it Happens
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Forecasting Skills: See the Future Before it Happens
This course is part of Futures Thinking Specialization
Instructor: Jane McGonigal
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What you'll learn
Collect and Analyze SIGNALS OF CHANGE
Identify and Analyze GLOBAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE
Combine Signals and Drivers into FUTURE FORECASTS
Write SCENARIOS that tell a story about your FUTURE FORECAST
Details to know
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There are 4 modules in this course
For many people, the future comes as a surprise β or even a shock. But with strong forecasting skills, YOU can avoid future shock. You can adapt faster, and become better prepared to benefit from change.
In this course, youβll build your future forecasting skills. You'll learn how to turn groups of "signals" (clues about the future) and "drivers" (global forces that influence the direction of change) into compelling future forecasts. Forecasts help you discover new possibilities and opportunities for yourself, your company, or any community you want to inspire to make a better future. You'll also learn how to write future scenarios. Scenarios take forecasts one step further. They spark imagination and tell a story about what might happen if a forecast comes true. Scenarios help you evaluate: Is this a future I'm ready for? Is this a future I want? Leading futurists from the Institute for the Future will show you exactly how it's done. They'll share with you the forecasts and scenarios theyβre most excited about right now, and walk you through the key steps they took to create them. Then, it's your turn! You'll create a forecast and a scenario on any future topic you choose. How will you benefit from taking this course? With strong forecasting skills, you'll get better at seeing the future before it happens. You'll be ready to consider possibilities that others never see coming or refuse to accept. You'll be able to help others prepare for and adapt to the future. You can decide which futures you want to make more likely, and which futures you want to prevent. Many thanks to the Enlight Foundation and the Enlight Collaborative, which provided a grant to support the creation of this course.
Welcome to our journey to the future! This week, you'll learn the basics: What's a future forecast? What makes a forecast good? What kind of data should I use to make my forecasts? By the end of the week, you'll be ready to analyze "drivers of change", and make your own first, tiny future forecast.
What's included
8 videos8 readings2 assignments1 peer review2 discussion prompts
8 videosβ’Total 60 minutes
- Welcome the the course! Meet your professor Jane McGonigalβ’3 minutes
- Strong Opinions, Lightly Heldβ’7 minutes
- What's a forecast?β’11 minutes
- Mini-Masterclass: Forecasting 101β’10 minutes
- Looking for Driversβ’13 minutes
- More Global Driversβ’5 minutes
- Driver Example: Blockchain!β’2 minutes
- How to Make a Quick Forecast on any Topicβ’9 minutes
8 readingsβ’Total 98 minutes
- Take our two-minute survey about the future!β’2 minutes
- Forecasting Skills Brief: Your "Cheat Sheet" for this courseβ’15 minutes
- Important notice for Forecasting Skills learnersβ’1 minute
- Excerpt: Get There Earlyβ’15 minutes
- Skills Refresher: Signals of Changeβ’10 minutes
- Examples of Drivers: The World in 2030β’15 minutes
- Blockchain Futuresβ’25 minutes
- The Coming Era of Autonomous Vehiclesβ’15 minutes
2 assignmentsβ’Total 20 minutes
- Future Forecasting Essentialsβ’10 minutes
- Blockchain basicsβ’10 minutes
1 peer reviewβ’Total 60 minutes
- Make a quick forecast about self-driving vehiclesβ’60 minutes
2 discussion promptsβ’Total 25 minutes
- Introduce yourself!β’10 minutes
- Play with a Driver! The Future of Smart Clothes and Accessoriesβ’15 minutes
You've got the forecasting basics down. Now it's time to play and experiment with bigger ideas! This week, you'll take a look at some of the Institute for the Future's most interesting recent forecasts. Then, you'll practice combining signals and drivers of change to reveal your own surprising possibilities.
What's included
4 videos2 readings2 assignments1 peer review1 discussion prompt
4 videosβ’Total 34 minutes
- Combining Signals and Drivers into a Forecast (Part 1)β’11 minutes
- Combining Signals and Drivers into a Forecast (Part 2)β’8 minutes
- How to Reveal Unexpected Possibilities (Part 1)β’4 minutes
- How to Reveal Unexpected Possibilities (Part 2)β’10 minutes
2 readingsβ’Total 70 minutes
- Wired World: Forecasts for 2020 and beyondβ’60 minutes
- TOOL: Reveal Unexpected Possibilitiesβ’10 minutes
2 assignmentsβ’Total 15 minutes
- Which forecast would impact you the most?β’15 minutes
- How would the Wired World forecast would change YOUR life?β’0 minutes
1 peer reviewβ’Total 60 minutes
- Reveal Unexpected Possibilitiesβ’60 minutes
1 discussion promptβ’Total 10 minutes
- What other unexpected possibilities can you reveal?β’10 minutes
You've forecast the future! Now what? This week, you'll learn how to write scenarios. A scenario takes your forecast one step further. It tells a story about what might happen IF your forecast comes true. A scenario will help YOU evaluate: Am I ready for this future? Is this a future I want? Scenarios are fun. Let's go explore some!
What's included
5 videos4 readings1 assignment1 peer review3 discussion prompts
5 videosβ’Total 29 minutes
- What's a scenario?β’6 minutes
- DEMO: Building a Scenario From Scratchβ’8 minutes
- SCENARIO: The Future of Learning and Earningβ’7 minutes
- The importance of ridiculous ideasβ’2 minutes
- A Few More Scenarios to Play Withβ’6 minutes
4 readingsβ’Total 85 minutes
- Signals of change behind the scenariosβ’15 minutes
- Learning is Earning: Map of the Futureβ’25 minutes
- Scenarios from the Future of Technology (the Ethical Operating System)β’20 minutes
- The Future of Machines (3 Scenarios)β’25 minutes
1 assignmentβ’Total 10 minutes
- The Future of Machinesβ’10 minutes
1 peer reviewβ’Total 60 minutes
- Create your own scenarioβ’60 minutes
3 discussion promptsβ’Total 50 minutes
- Are you ready for a world in which...?β’20 minutes
- Scenario: Learning is Earningβ’10 minutes
- Are you ready for a world in which...? (Part 2)β’20 minutes
What happens if your forecast is wrong? What happens when a scenario you wrote actually comes true? This week, you'll learn how to update your forecasts and rethink your scenarios. With these techniques, you can make sure you're never "stuck" with old ways of thinking about possible futures.
What's included
3 videos5 readings1 peer review2 discussion prompts
3 videosβ’Total 14 minutes
- Revisiting a 10-Year Forecast... 10 Years Later!β’6 minutes
- Updating a Forecastβ’7 minutes
- Congratulations on finishing this course!β’2 minutes
5 readingsβ’Total 42 minutes
- Future of Money - A Forecast for 2021β’10 minutes
- Future of the Internet: A Forecast for 2021β’10 minutes
- Future of Households: A Forecast for 20201β’10 minutes
- Future of Social Media: A Forecast for 2021β’10 minutes
- An invitation to join our free Alumni Networkβ’2 minutes
1 peer reviewβ’Total 30 minutes
- Find a new signal about satellites!β’30 minutes
2 discussion promptsβ’Total 36 minutes
- How would you update these 2021 forecasts? Add a signal!β’21 minutes
- What's your biggest "a ha" moment from this course?β’15 minutes
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Reviewed on Dec 5, 2021
Another excellent course in the Futures Thinking specialisation. I am looking forward to completing all five.
Reviewed on Nov 17, 2019
Great course, really built on the introductory course and helped the participant build confidence in forecasting the future
Reviewed on Feb 3, 2021
This course is really exciting all throughout! If you want to be involved in building the future, this course is for you.
Frequently asked questions
To access the course materials, assignments and to earn a Certificate, you will need to purchase the Certificate experience when you enroll in a course. You can try a Free Trial instead, or apply for Financial Aid. The course may offer 'Full Course, No Certificate' instead. This option lets you see all course materials, submit required assessments, and get a final grade. This also means that you will not be able to purchase a Certificate experience.
When you enroll in the course, you get access to all of the courses in the Specialization, and you earn a certificate when you complete the work. Your electronic Certificate will be added to your Accomplishments page - from there, you can print your Certificate or add it to your LinkedIn profile.
Yes. In select learning programs, you can apply for financial aid or a scholarship if you canβt afford the enrollment fee. If fin aid or scholarship is available for your learning program selection, youβll find a link to apply on the description page.
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