An Intuitive Introduction to Probability
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An Intuitive Introduction to Probability
Instructor: Karl Schmedders
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There are 5 modules in this course
This course will provide you with a basic, intuitive and practical introduction into Probability Theory. You will be able to learn how to apply Probability Theory in different scenarios and you will earn a "toolbox" of methods to deal with uncertainty in your daily life.
The course is split in 5 modules. In each module you will first have an easy introduction into the topic, which will serve as a basis to further develop your knowledge about the topic and acquire the "tools" to deal with uncertainty. Additionally, you will have the opportunity to complete 5 exercise sessions to reflect about the content learned in each module and start applying your earned knowledge right away. The topics covered are: "Probability", "Conditional Probability", "Applications", "Random Variables", and "Normal Distribution". You will see how the modules are taught in a lively way, focusing on having an entertaining and useful learning experience! We are looking forward to see you online!
In this module we will learn about probabilities and perform our first calculations using probability formulas. We want to get comfortable with the idea that probabilities describe the chance of uncertain events occurring.
What's included
7 videos1 reading7 assignments
7 videos•Total 63 minutes
- Welcome•6 minutes
- Introduction•6 minutes
- Definition and Rules•13 minutes
- A First Look at Statistical Independence•10 minutes
- Subjective Probabilities•10 minutes
- Empirical Probabilities: Benford's Law•11 minutes
- Exercise•7 minutes
1 reading•Total 120 minutes
- Script: Part 1•120 minutes
7 assignments•Total 210 minutes
- Introductory Quiz•30 minutes
- 1.1•30 minutes
- 1.2•30 minutes
- 1.3•30 minutes
- 1.4•30 minutes
- 1.5•30 minutes
- 1.6•30 minutes
The arrival of new information may lead us to alter our probabilistic assessments of uncertain events. In this module, we will learn how the concept of "conditional" probabilities allows us to make these changes correctly. Script of the course can be found here: https://www.coursera.org/learn/introductiontoprobability/resources/qxi9W
What's included
6 videos1 reading6 assignments
6 videos•Total 54 minutes
- Intuition•9 minutes
- Definition•8 minutes
- Multiplication Rules•10 minutes
- Probability Tables•10 minutes
- Bayes Rule•11 minutes
- Exercise•6 minutes
1 reading•Total 120 minutes
- Script: Part 2•120 minutes
6 assignments•Total 180 minutes
- 2.1•30 minutes
- 2.2•30 minutes
- 2.3•30 minutes
- 2.4•30 minutes
- 2.5•30 minutes
- 2.6•30 minutes
We will discuss some fascinating every-day applications of probability. In addition to entertaining examples, we will also review very serious applications from finance and law.
What's included
6 videos6 assignments
6 videos•Total 80 minutes
- The Birthday Problem•15 minutes
- The Monty Hall Problem•12 minutes
- Structuring Risks: Part 1•13 minutes
- Structuring Risks: Part 2•8 minutes
- The Prosecutor's Fallacy•16 minutes
- The Sad Story of Sally Clark•16 minutes
6 assignments•Total 180 minutes
- 3.1•30 minutes
- 3.2•30 minutes
- 3.3.1•30 minutes
- 3.3.2•30 minutes
- 3.4•30 minutes
- 3.5•30 minutes
In this module we move beyond probabilities and learn about important summary measures such as expected values, variances, and standard deviations. We also learn about the most popular discrete probability distribution, the binomial distribution.
What's included
8 videos1 reading8 assignments
8 videos•Total 80 minutes
- Discrete Random Variables•11 minutes
- Expected Value•13 minutes
- Measures of Dispersion•9 minutes
- Application: Financial Model•6 minutes
- Binomial Distribution•18 minutes
- Application: Airline Overbooking•12 minutes
- Exercise 1•6 minutes
- Exercise 2•6 minutes
1 reading•Total 120 minutes
- Script: Part 4•120 minutes
8 assignments•Total 240 minutes
- 4.1•30 minutes
- 4.2•30 minutes
- 4.3•30 minutes
- 4.4•30 minutes
- 4.5•30 minutes
- 4.6•30 minutes
- 4.7•30 minutes
- 4.8•30 minutes
We want to get comfortable with the normal distribution. We will discuss what the famous bell curve really represents. And we will learn how easy it is to calculate normal probabilities.
What's included
6 videos1 reading5 assignments
6 videos•Total 57 minutes
- Continuous Random Variables•15 minutes
- Normal Distribution•10 minutes
- Calculating Normal Probabilities•9 minutes
- Calculations with the Normal Distribution•8 minutes
- Application of the Normal Distribution•8 minutes
- Exercise•8 minutes
1 reading•Total 120 minutes
- Script: Part 5•120 minutes
5 assignments•Total 150 minutes
- 5.1•30 minutes
- 5.2•30 minutes
- 5.3•30 minutes
- 5.4•30 minutes
- 5.5•30 minutes
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Reviewed on Feb 22, 2022
Excelent course if you hate probability and want to start having fun with it. Its very beginner friendly spend soem time before you go to 4th and 5th modules. I am very grateful to Karl and Jose.
Reviewed on Mar 22, 2023
It's a great course, loved the way Prof. Karl Schmedders explains things. However one area of improvement of this course is - the methods adopted in the exercises needed to be covered in the lectures.
Reviewed on May 24, 2018
The course explains probability and normal distribution concepts in a way it is easier to follow. And makes it further easier using usual excel function. Very well taught course! A big thank you!!
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