Math behind Moneyball
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97 reviews
97 reviews
Skills you'll gain
- Probability
- Statistical Modeling
- Spreadsheet Software
- Data Analysis
- Simulations
- Probability & Statistics
- Game Theory
- Regression Analysis
- Excel Formulas
- Analytics
- Data-Driven Decision-Making
- Advanced Analytics
- Statistical Analysis
- Data Analysis Software
- Predictive Modeling
- Statistical Methods
- Pivot Tables And Charts
- Predictive Analytics
- Statistics
Tools you'll learn
Details to know
See how employees at top companies are mastering in-demand skills
There are 12 modules in this course
Learn how probability, math, and statistics can be used to help baseball, football and basketball teams improve, player and lineup selection as well as in game strategy.
What's included
1 video1 reading
1 video•Total 2 minutes
- All you will learn•2 minutes
1 reading•Total 1 minute
- Suggested Textbooks (Not Required)•1 minute
You will learn how to predict a team’s won loss record from the number of runs, points, or goals scored by a team and its opponents. Then we will introduce you to multiple regression and show how multiple regression is used to evaluate baseball hitters. Excel data tables, VLOOKUP, MATCH, and INDEX functions will be discussed.
What's included
11 videos22 readings3 assignments
11 videos•Total 90 minutes
- 1.1 Introduction•12 minutes
- 1.2 Pythagorean Theorem•13 minutes
- 1.3 Ten runs = One win•7 minutes
- Homework Problems 1 and 2•4 minutes
- 1.4 Runs created•8 minutes
- 1.5 Runs Created Per Game•6 minutes
- 1.6 Multiple Regression 1•17 minutes
- 1.7 Multiple Regression 2•6 minutes
- 1.8 Linear Weights•6 minutes
- 1.9 On Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage•5 minutes
- 1.10 Barry Bonds Runs per Game•7 minutes
22 readings•Total 220 minutes
- Download Excel Files (Important!)•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended reading•10 minutes
- Excel file•10 minutes
- Recommended reading•10 minutes
- Excel file•10 minutes
- Excel file•10 minutes
- Recommended reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended reading•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 3•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended reading•10 minutes
- Homework Problems 4•10 minutes
3 assignments•Total 64 minutes
- Test Questions 1 and 2•4 minutes
- Test Question 3•30 minutes
- Test Question 4•30 minutes
You will concentrate on learning important Excel tools including Range Names, Tables, Conditional Formatting, PivotTables, and the family of COUNTIFS, SUMIFS, and AVERAGEIFS functions. You will concentrate on learning important Excel tools including Range Names, Tables, Conditional Formatting, PivotTables, and the family of COUNTIFS, SUMIFS, and AVERAGEIFS functions.
What's included
10 videos23 readings2 assignments
10 videos•Total 76 minutes
- 2.1 Excel Range Names•5 minutes
- 2.2 Excel Tables•5 minutes
- 2.3 Conditional Formatting: Top Bottom Rules•7 minutes
- 2.4 Conditional Formatting: Data Bars•8 minutes
- 2.5 Conditional Formatting: The Formula Option•12 minutes
- 2.6 COUNTIF and COUNTIFS functions•10 minutes
- 2.7 SUMIF and SUMIFS Functions•6 minutes
- 2.8 AVERAGEIF and AVERAGEIFS Functions•6 minutes
- 2.9 PivotTables I•9 minutes
- 2.10 PivotTables II•9 minutes
23 readings•Total 230 minutes
- Download Excel Files (Important!)•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 5•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 6•10 minutes
2 assignments•Total 60 minutes
- Test Question 5•30 minutes
- Test Question 6•30 minutes
You will learn how Monte Carlo simulation works and how it can be used to evaluate a baseball team’s offense and the famous DEFLATEGATE controversy.
What's included
6 videos10 readings2 assignments
6 videos•Total 71 minutes
- 3.1 Monte Carlo Simulation I•16 minutes
- 3.2 Monte Carlo Simulation Part II•11 minutes
- 3.3 Monte Carlo Simulation Part III•9 minutes
- 3.4 Baseball Monte Carlo simulation•16 minutes
- 3.5 Resampling•12 minutes
- 3.6 Deflategate•8 minutes
10 readings•Total 100 minutes
- Download Excel Files (Important!)•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 8•10 minutes
2 assignments•Total 60 minutes
- Test Question 7•30 minutes
- Test Question 8•30 minutes
You will learn how to evaluate baseball fielding, baseball pitchers, and evaluate in game baseball decision-making. The math behind WAR (Wins above Replacement) and Park Factors will also be discussed. Modern developments such as infield shifts and pitch framing will also be discussed.
What's included
13 videos27 readings5 assignments
13 videos•Total 88 minutes
- 4.1 Bunting and Expected Runs•6 minutes
- 4.2 Base Stealing•6 minutes
- 4.3 Range Factor•8 minutes
- 4.4 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) and Fielding•13 minutes
- 4.5 Introduction to Fan Graphs•3 minutes
- 4.6 DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistics)•8 minutes
- 4.7 Win Probability Added•7 minutes
- 4.8 Runs above Average•6 minutes
- 4.9 WAR (Wins above Replacement)•8 minutes
- 4.10 What Makes your Team Win?•2 minutes
- 4.11 Defensive Shifts•8 minutes
- 4.12 Catcher Framing•6 minutes
- 4.13 Park Factors•6 minutes
27 readings•Total 270 minutes
- Download Excel Files (Important!)•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended reading•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 9•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 10•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 11•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 12•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 13•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 14•10 minutes
5 assignments•Total 150 minutes
- Test Question 9•30 minutes
- Test Questions 10&11•30 minutes
- Test Question 12•30 minutes
- Test Question 13•30 minutes
- Test Question 14•30 minutes
You will learn basic concepts involving random variables (specifically the normal random variable, expected value, variance and standard deviation.) You will learn how regression can be used to analyze what makes NFL teams win and decode the NFL QB rating system. You will also learn that momentum and the “hot hand” is mostly a myth. Finally, you will use Excel text functions and the concept of Expected Points per play to analyze the effectiveness of a football team’s play calling.
What's included
11 videos23 readings5 assignments
11 videos•Total 117 minutes
- 5.1 Random Variables•8 minutes
- 5.2 The Normal Random Variable•21 minutes
- 5.3 Streakiness•10 minutes
- 5.4 What makes NFL teams win?•14 minutes
- 5.5 Deconstructing the NFL QB rating•7 minutes
- 5.6 Football States and Values•11 minutes
- 5.7 Football Decision Making•10 minutes
- 5.8 The Belichick Decision•10 minutes
- 5.9 Text functions and Analyzing NFL plays•13 minutes
- 5.10 Texans 1st and 10 Play Selection•8 minutes
- 5.11 STDEVIF and Too Many Field Goal Attempts•7 minutes
23 readings•Total 230 minutes
- Download Excel Files (Important!)•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 15•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 16•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 17•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 18•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 19•10 minutes
5 assignments•Total 150 minutes
- Test Question 15•30 minutes
- Test Question 16•30 minutes
- Test Question 17•30 minutes
- Test Question 18•30 minutes
- Test Question 19•30 minutes
You will learn how two-person zero sum game theory sheds light on football play selection and soccer penalty kick strategies. Our discussion of basketball begins with an analysis of NBA shooting, box score based player metrics, and the Four Factor concept which explains what makes basketball teams win.
What's included
7 videos16 readings4 assignments
7 videos•Total 69 minutes
- 6.1 Game Theory Part I•12 minutes
- 6.2 Game Theory Part II•9 minutes
- 6.3 Basketball Shot Selection•13 minutes
- 6.4 Effective Field Goal Percentage (EFG)•4 minutes
- 6.5 Hollinger Team Metrics•6 minutes
- 6.6 Four Factors•11 minutes
- 6.7 Basketball Box Score Models•14 minutes
16 readings•Total 160 minutes
- Download Excel Files (Important!)•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 20•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 21•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 22•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 23•10 minutes
4 assignments•Total 120 minutes
- Test Question 20•30 minutes
- Test Question 21•30 minutes
- Test Question 22•30 minutes
- Test Question 23•30 minutes
You will learn about advanced basketball concepts such as Adjusted plus minus, ESPN’s RPM, SportVu data, and NBA in game decision-making.
What's included
8 videos13 readings4 assignments
8 videos•Total 98 minutes
- 7.1 Extracting Lineup data and Computing raw + -•17 minutes
- 7.2 Computing Pairs Lineup Statistics•10 minutes
- 7.3 Adjusted + -•16 minutes
- 7.4 ESPM RPM (Real Plus Minus)•13 minutes
- 7.5 How Analytics Helped the Mavs beat the Heat•13 minutes
- 7.6 SportsVu data•13 minutes
- 7.7 In Game Basketball Decision-Making•13 minutes
- 7.8 Hack a Jordan (or Dwight)•4 minutes
13 readings•Total 130 minutes
- Download Excel Files (Important!)•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 24•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 25•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 26•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 27•10 minutes
4 assignments•Total 120 minutes
- Test 24•30 minutes
- Test 25•30 minutes
- Test 26•30 minutes
- Test 27•30 minutes
You will learn how to use game results to rate sports teams and set point spreads. Simulation of the NCAA basketball tournament will aid you in filling out your 2016 bracket. Final 4 is in Houston!
What's included
7 videos18 readings5 assignments
7 videos•Total 88 minutes
- 8.1 Rating NFL teams•18 minutes
- 8.2 Computing Strength of Schedule•12 minutes
- 8.3 Rating NFL Offenses and Defenses•12 minutes
- 8.4 Multiplicative Rating Models for Soccer•17 minutes
- 8.5 Regularization•8 minutes
- 8.6 Simulating the NCAA Tournament•13 minutes
- 8.7 NCAA Props Bets•9 minutes
18 readings•Total 180 minutes
- Download Excel Files (Important!)•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 28•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 29•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 30•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 31•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 32•10 minutes
5 assignments•Total 150 minutes
- Test 28•30 minutes
- Test 29•30 minutes
- Test 30•30 minutes
- Test 31•30 minutes
- Test 32•30 minutes
You will learn how to rate NASCAR drivers and get an introduction to sports betting concepts such as the Money line, Props Bets, and evaluation of gambling betting systems.
What's included
10 videos19 readings4 assignments
10 videos•Total 97 minutes
- 9.1 Method of Maximum Likelihood•9 minutes
- 9.2 Rating Teams Based on Wins and Losses•9 minutes
- 9.3 Simulating the NFL Playoffs•5 minutes
- 9.4 Rating NASCAR Drivers•10 minutes
- 9.5 How Good are NFL Point Spreads•15 minutes
- 9.6 Relating the Money Line to Point Spreads•9 minutes
- 9.7 How Can you tell if a Betting System is Successful?•12 minutes
- 9.8 Props Bets I•11 minutes
- 9.9 Props Bet II•10 minutes
- 9.10 Props Bet III•5 minutes
19 readings•Total 190 minutes
- Download Excel Files (Important!)•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 33•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 34•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 35•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 36•10 minutes
4 assignments•Total 120 minutes
- Test 33•30 minutes
- Test 34•30 minutes
- Test 35•30 minutes
- Test 36•30 minutes
You will learn how Kelly Growth can optimize your sports betting, how regression to the mean explains the SI cover jinx and how to optimize a daily fantasy sports lineup. We close with a discussion of golf analytics.
What's included
7 videos14 readings4 assignments
7 videos•Total 73 minutes
- 10.1 Kelly Growth Part I•10 minutes
- 10.2 Kelly Growth Part II•5 minutes
- 10.3 Kelly Growth Part III•6 minutes
- 10.4 Regression to the Mean•15 minutes
- 10.5 Daily Fantasy Sports Part I•8 minutes
- 10.6 Daily Fantasy Sports Part II•18 minutes
- 10.7 Golf Analytics•10 minutes
14 readings•Total 140 minutes
- Download Excel Files (Important!)•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 37•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Recommended Reading•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 38•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 39•10 minutes
- Excel Files•10 minutes
- Homework Problem 40•10 minutes
4 assignments•Total 120 minutes
- Test 37•30 minutes
- Test 38•30 minutes
- Test 39•30 minutes
- Test 40•30 minutes
Final exam has 10 questions. Please download and open Excel files before taking the exam. You will be referred to Excel files during the exam. Each question is wort 1 point. You need to answer 6 questions or more correctly to pass the exam.
What's included
1 reading1 assignment
1 reading•Total 10 minutes
- Download Excel Files•10 minutes
1 assignment•Total 30 minutes
- Final Exam•30 minutes
Instructor
Offered by
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University of Michigan
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University of Michigan
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Birla Institute of Technology & Science, Pilani
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Reviewed on Jul 18, 2020
Great course for sport fans who want to learn about sports analytics. But need to have extensive knowledge on game rules and specific terms for MLB, NFL, NBA
Reviewed on May 31, 2020
Great class. Longer to complete than the estimates though.
Reviewed on Mar 7, 2018
Excellent course if you like statistics, probabilities, and how to linh sport with math. Well explained. Maybe it needs more "movement" on forums
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