Halfway into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU has yet to cut the flow of fossil fuel cash to Moscow, casting doubts on its promise to end its addiction to Russian energy by 2027.
Despite 17 sanction packages and repeated vows to end reliance on Kremlin-linked hydrocarbons, Russian oil, gas, and LNG still flow into Europe’s economy.
The bloc imports even uranium, as five EU countries (Finland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and Bulgaria) still operate Russian-designed VVER nuclear reactors.
While this dependency is partially fuelled by legacy infrastructure, it is political: Slovakia and Hungary – both close to Moscow – are blocking the bloc’s 18th sanctions package to force the Commission to review its 2027 phase-out plan.
The facts
In 2024, the EU spent an estimated €21.9 billion on Russian fossil fuels imports – just 1% less than the previous year. To put that into perspective: the amount exceeds the €18.7 billion in financial aid the EU provided to Ukraine in the same year.
According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), crude oil revenues only dropped by 6% year-on-year, or about €2.6 billion – largely because Russia has shifted to using the so-called ‘shadow fleet‘ to get around the restrictions.
In the third year of the invasion, 61% of Russia’s seaborne oil exports – worth €83 billion – were moved using 558 of these ships.
The Commission’s latest sanctions proposal would lower the price cap on seaborne Russian crude to $45 per barrel and go after the shadow fleet.
The plan
Under its REPowerEU roadmap, the Commission laid out a timeline to cut Russian energy ties by 2027. No new gas contracts should be signed from early 2026, and even short-term deals must end by mid-2026. Long-term agreements covering oil, gas and LNG would be phased out entirely by 2027.
A carve-out exists for landlocked EU countries still bound by legacy pipeline contracts – they will have until the end of 2027 to comply. Brussels also plans further restrictions targeting Russian uranium and other nuclear imports.
Most Russian pipeline gas has already been cut off, with only the TurkStream line continuing to supply the bloc with Russian gas, and talks have been held to expand its capacity.
In practice, however, due to the shadow fleet, the flow of Russian LNG to the EU has been steady.
The concerns
Energy security is often seen as a ‘trilemma’: balancing reliable supply, environmental protection, and affordability. For EU countries still hooked on Russian fossil fuels, cost is a main concern, and national perspectives differ widely.
Hungary and Slovakia argue that maintaining reliance on Russian energy keeps prices low. Germany, by contrast, has largely shifted its gas supply away from Russia toward Norway, and France has secured a 27-year deal for natural gas with Qatar. As for oil, the EU’s best bets might be the US and Libya.
If the EU can successfully secure alternative suppliers and end the political deadlock on sanctions, it could cut Russia’s fossil fuel export revenues by €51 billion a year, data shows. This would slash about 22% of its total earnings, moving it closer to gaining its independence from the Kremlin.
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