RIGA — Latvia’s incoming government is taking office with a promise to confront the drone crisis that helped bring down its predecessor. What it does not have is a clear way to solve it.

The four-party coalition led by Prime Minister-designate Andris Kulbergs signed a coalition agreement Thursday ahead of a positive parliamentary confidence vote; the previous government collapsed two weeks ago amid political fallout over stray drones linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine entering Latvian airspace.

“All parties have agreed that strengthening our air defence and counter-drone capabilities is the most urgent priority,” Foreign Minister Baiba Braže said in a statement to POLITICO. “The overarching priorities of security and defence are reflected in the declaration of the new government coalition.” 

The drone crisis has shaken Latvian politics at a sensitive moment for NATO’s eastern flank. 

Earlier this month, two drones entering Latvia from Russian territory crashed near oil facilities, intensifying public concern about whether the state could detect aerial threats.

Ukraine has launched an intensive long-range strike campaign against key Russian targets like air defense sites, refineries, pipelines, ports and strategic factories. Kyiv and NATO member countries accuse Russia of redirecting Ukrainian drones into allied airspace; they have also been spotted over Lithuania and Estonia.

The backlash over the Latvian incidents ultimately helped bring down the government of Prime Minister Evika Siliņa. Defense Minister Andris Sprūds resigned under pressure, and coalition tensions escalated into a broader collapse of the administration. 

Tougher approach on drones

While Braže is expected to remain foreign minister in the new coalition, Sprūds is now an MP on the Latvian parliament's defense committee. The new defense minister is Col. Raivis Melnis, a former Latvian military representative in Ukraine whose appointment is intended to signal a more operational response to the crisis.

Kulbergs has framed the reshuffle as a means of restoring public trust. 

Braže said Melnis’ priority would be the “rapid integration of Ukraine’s battlefield lessons, technologies and proven solutions” into Latvia’s defense system, particularly regarding drones, electronic warfare and air defense.

But the crisis has also exposed a difficult political reality: Even when drones aren't directly targeting Latvia, governments can still fall if the public loses confidence in the state’s ability to manage the threat.

Sprūds, speaking to POLITICO at this week's Drone Summit in Riga — where industry, military and high-ranking politicians discussed drone development and procurement —argued the issue had become larger than one ministry or a single resignation.

“Drone incidents should be taken very seriously,” Sprūds said. But he also warned they shouldn't be treated as a purely domestic political failure, given that they are “a consequence of Russian aggression in Ukraine.”

“It is not just about detecting and intercepting,” he added. “It’s also about communicating.”

The incoming coalition is now trying to project a more urgent approach. Reinis Pozņaks, a Latvian member of the European Parliament with the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists, aligned with Kulbergs’ political camp, said too many defense plans still existed only “in PowerPoint” instead of in the real world.

“It’s unfortunately not possible to stop drones,” Pozņaks told POLITICO at the same summit. “We just need to be prepared much better.”

Pozņaks argued that Latvia’s biggest weaknesses lie in detection and public warning systems, which are now being tested under real conditions for the first time.

“The first goal for the new government would be to tell the people the hard truth,” he said. “We are in danger, be prepared.”

Learning from Ukraine

Officials close to the incoming coalition acknowledge the challenge extends beyond Latvia. 

One person familiar with the government’s defense discussions said the new leadership wants to work closely with Ukraine to absorb lessons from the battlefield, but added that NATO countries are still struggling to understand what drone-heavy warfare means for Western militaries built around more conventional tactics.

“In practice,” the official said, there has been “a lot of talking and far less active transforming.”

Analysts caution that Latvia’s caretaker government may have little time to deliver anything beyond incremental fixes. The next parliamentary election is scheduled for October, leaving the coalition only a few months before campaigning dominates politics.

“I do not expect much from the new Latvian government,” said Bartosz Chmielewski, a Baltic states analyst at the Warsaw-based Centre for Eastern Studies think tank. “It is difficult to expect this cabinet to implement wide-ranging changes and reforms, as it operates in a pre-election period.”

Instead, Chmielewski said, the government’s most realisable short-term achievements may be improving Latvia’s SMS warning system for drone alerts and keeping longer-term air-defense programs — including deliveries of the Swedish RBS 70 NG and the German IRIS-T systems — on schedule.

That may leave Latvia’s new government confronting an uncomfortable reality: The crisis that toppled the previous administration isn't a problem it can fully solve, only try to manage better before the next election.

This article has been updated.