The New Strategic Landscape of the Levant

Israeli expansionism is widely identified as one of the root causes of regional insecurity and instability, with increasingly visible effects along the Levant axis encompassing Syria and Lebanon. Syria is currently undergoing a new state-building process following the overthrow of a decades-long Ba’athist dictatorship by opposition forces, while simultaneously confronting an Israel that has permanently annexed the Golan Heights, pursued a collusive approach with certain Druze communities, and contributed to prolonged instability in Lebanon through an extended cycle of conflict since 1982. This pattern constitutes a second major axis of regional destabilization, compounding the shockwaves already generated by the war against Iran in the Gulf security architecture. Challenges to territorial integrity and central authority, which are the most fundamental principles of statehood, continue to obstruct the Levant’s prospects for lasting peace, while also undermining long-term development and economic growth objectives across both the region’s land geography and the Eastern Mediterranean as a critical energy hub and maritime corridor.

This session will examine Israeli expansionism along the Levant axis with a focus on present dynamics and future trajectories rather than historical background alone. Drawing on the cases of Syria and Lebanon and adopting a holistic regional perspective, it will assess the implications of entrenched insecurity and instability, as well as explore potential pathways for mitigation and resolution. By addressing structural drivers while maintaining a forward-looking analytical lens, the discussion aims to better identify the key obstacles to long-term regional stability and strategic planning.

Discussion Themes:

1. How have Israel’s expansionist actions in Syria and Lebanon reshaped the strategic and security landscape of the Levant, particularly in the post-Assad transition period in Syria?
2. To what extent do challenges to territorial integrity and centralized state authority in Syria and Lebanon undermine prospects for long-term regional stability and state-building?
3. How could the persistence of instability across the Levant and the Eastern Mediterranean affect regional economic development, connectivity initiatives, and broader geopolitical alignments?
4. With Assad’s fall dismantling Iran’s land corridor and Hezbollah severely weakened, is Israeli expansionism in Syria and Lebanon exploiting a temporary power vacuum or entrenching a permanent new strategic reality?