Cuba's Crisis: Oil Shortages, Political Deals – and Washington's Agenda
This episode was made with the help of AI.
For weeks, Cuba has been facing a severe oil shortage. Diesel is scarce, power grids are faltering, and hospitals are being forced to scale back services. What is driving this crisis – and what role do the United States play?
In this episode of “Im Krisenmodus” (“In Crisis Mode”), FUNKE war correspondent Jan Jessen speaks with Dr. Claudia Zilla (German Institute for International and Security Affairs) about the connections to Venezuela. Prof. Dr. Bert Hoffmann (GIGA / Freie Universität Berlin), who was in Cuba in February, shares first-hand insights into the situation on the ground. Together, they explore where developments may be heading – and what will be decisive in the weeks ahead.
Guests
Dr. Claudia Zilla – Senior Fellow, Research Division Americas
German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), Berlin
Prof. Dr. Bert Hoffmann – Lead Research Fellow & Editor “GIGA Focus Latin America,”
GIGA – German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg;
Honorary Professor, Freie Universität Berlin
Host
Jan Jessen – Head of Politics at NRZ and War and Crisis Reporter for the FUNKE Mediengruppe
🧭 Chapter Overview
1 – Oil Cut Off, Pressure Rising: Why Cuba Is Back in Focus
Jan Jessen sets the scene: Venezuela is opening economically without political reform, while US oil policies are increasing pressure on Cuba. What does this mean for people on the island – and could diplomacy replace confrontation?
2 – Venezuela as the Key: “Economic Change Without Political Transition”
Dr. Claudia Zilla explains how Caracas is liberalizing parts of its economy, especially in energy and mining, without fundamentally changing its political system.
3 – Liberalization Does Not Equal Democratization
Zilla highlights that reduced repression does not automatically lead to free elections or meaningful political participation.
4 – Cuba ≠ Venezuela: Geography, Power Structures, and Symbolism
A comparison of the two systems: Cuba’s island geography, limited resources, tightly knit power structures linked to the military – and its unique symbolic legacy.
5 – Why Cuba Matters to Washington
Zilla outlines US interests beyond oil: the military-controlled conglomerate GAESA, tourism and the global image of Havana, unresolved property claims, and the political influence of Cuban exiles in Florida.
6 – Scenarios Without Military Intervention
Rather than “boots on the ground,” Zilla considers negotiations with Cuba’s ruling elite as the more likely path, possibly involving leadership changes but maintaining continuity within the system.
7 – Everyday Life Under Pressure
Prof. Hoffmann describes the reality in Cuba: fuel shortages disrupt transport, water systems fail, and hospitals struggle – affecting nearly every aspect of daily life.
8 – “Why Cuba?” – A US Perspective
Hoffmann explains the geopolitical and symbolic importance of Cuba: its proximity to the US, domestic political pressure, and economic interests in tourism and real estate.
9 – Escalation Scenarios: Conflict or Negotiation?
Why a US invasion is unlikely, what risks it would entail, and how internal political shifts in Havana could unfold.
10 – The Tanker Question: A निर्णing Factor
Will fuel shipments reach Cuba? Hoffmann emphasizes that US decisions regarding oil tankers could determine whether the country gains temporary relief or faces a worsening humanitarian crisis.
11 – Conclusion: Pressure, Daily Reality, Open Questions
A concise summary: causes (oil supply and US leverage), strategies (pressure and negotiation), consequences (life under scarcity), and the broader political significance of Cuba. Key uncertainties remain – including fuel deliveries, potential concessions from Havana, and pressure from exile communities.
Foreign Office
Current travel and security advice for Venezuela
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