Ever since Windows 10 fell out of support a month and a half ago, we've been keeping an eye out to see if people have been upgrading to Windows 11, sticking with Windows 10 for another year, or taking the secret third option. And while we've got trackers like StatCounter and general anecdotal evidence, we haven't really gotten a good grip on whether people are adopting or shunning Windows 11.

Well, it seems we've gotten our first glimpse into how the Windows 10 end-of-life date has affected new PC sales, or, rather, how they haven't. The COO of Dell says that people aren't making the jump to the new operating system, and it's worrying news for Microsoft.

Dell's COO says 500 million people can upgrade to Windows 11, but won't

In an earnings call transcribed by The Motley Fool, the COO of Dell, Jeff Clarke, answered some questions about how the company is doing. One question fielded to Jeff was the topic of a "PC refresh," where people would purchase a new computer to replace their older Windows 10 device that can't upgrade to Windows 11. It seems Jeff was previously pretty confident that the end-of-life drive would push people to grab a new PC.

Unfortunately, Jeff replied by saying that the Windows 11 conversion hadn't completed just yet, and that Dell was "10, 12 points behind at that point with Windows 11 than we were the previous generation." To show everyone why the sales were down, he discussed the rate at which people are upgrading to Windows 11, and things don't sound good.

Jeff starts by saying, "If memory serves me right, the installed base is roughly [...] 1.5 billion units.​​​​​​" This is likely a reference to the total number of Windows devices in the world, as 1.5 billion is the "magic number" that the OS hovers around. Keeping that in mind, Jeff then says the following:

We have about 500 million of them capable of running Windows 11 that haven't been upgraded. And we have another 500 million that are four years old that can't run Windows 11. Those are all rich opportunities to upgrade towards Windows 11 and modern technology. Equally important AIPCs.

If Jeff got his numbers correct (and I don't see why he shouldn't), then not only does one third of the Windows userbase not have a PC compatible with Windows 11, but a further third can upgrade to Windows 11 but have chosen not to. That second part is what stuns me the most, as it shows that people just don't see upgrading as worth the hassle, even when the option to do so is sitting right in front of them.

It's worth noting that the 1.5 billion units statistic means all computers, meaning we're looking into both personal and professional Windows systems. It may be the case that companies feel that Windows 11 is a little too unstable right now and are holding on before making the upgrade later. However, until then, Microsoft has another migration issue on its hands.