Finland's finance ministry has cast doubt on the government's employment ambitions, warning that progress towards its end-of-term jobs target is likely to fall short.

At the request of the legislature's finance committee, the finance ministry assessed the effects of the Orpo government's 2027–30 employment and fiscal measures. It found that the government employment measures would generate just 18,000 additional jobs over the course of the decade.

That estimate sits uneasily alongside the centre-right coalition's pledge to create 100,000 new jobs during its term in office.

The government assumes that policies already enacted will ultimately generate around 105,000 additional jobs. But documents obtained by Yle suggest that progress towards that goal is expected to be slow.

The ministry estimates that the government's employment measures could raise the number of people in work by only about 18,000 by 2030.

In 2029 and 2030, the number of people in employment is projected to grow by an average of around 0.8–0.9 percent a year.

The ministry attributes the sluggish outlook chiefly to weak demand stemming from lacklustre economic growth.

Employment is, however, expected to begin edging upwards next year.