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Your bandit's exploration floor probably violates its own floor
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Whatsonyourmind
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Whatsonyourmind
Jun 17
Your bandit's exploration floor probably violates its own floor
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3 min read
A model with R-squared near 0 can still give valid 90% prediction intervals - here's why (and the catch)
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Whatsonyourmind
Jun 17
A model with R-squared near 0 can still give valid 90% prediction intervals - here's why (and the catch)
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4 min read
When Polymarket says 70%, does it happen 70% of the time? I checked against 19.4M price snapshots.
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manja316
Jun 16
When Polymarket says 70%, does it happen 70% of the time? I checked against 19.4M price snapshots.
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4 min read
Stop Shipping ML Models With Bare Floats: A Deep Dive Into Statistically Rigorous Model Evaluation
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Nischal Mandal
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Nischal Mandal
Jun 15
Stop Shipping ML Models With Bare Floats: A Deep Dive Into Statistically Rigorous Model Evaluation
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python
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datascience
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machinelearning
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4 min read
Power analysis for LLM evals: how big does your eval set need to be to catch a 5% regression?
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Maya Andersson
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Maya Andersson
Jun 15
Power analysis for LLM evals: how big does your eval set need to be to catch a 5% regression?
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datascience
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statistics
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machinelearning
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ai
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2 min read
A Scatter-Plot Explorer for World Statistics — Log Scales and Hand-Rolled Pearson Correlation
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SEN LLC
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SEN LLC
Jun 13
A Scatter-Plot Explorer for World Statistics — Log Scales and Hand-Rolled Pearson Correlation
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javascript
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dataviz
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5 min read
Por que n=50.000 mentiu para mim: a armadilha estatística por trás de uma falsa vantagem setorial
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Alexandre Caramaschi
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Alexandre Caramaschi
Jun 11
Por que n=50.000 mentiu para mim: a armadilha estatística por trás de uma falsa vantagem setorial
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datascience
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llm
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machinelearning
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statistics
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5 min read
The Beta-Binomial trick for not overreacting to a tiny sample
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Bid Canvas
Jun 8
The Beta-Binomial trick for not overreacting to a tiny sample
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3 min read
maskedcauses: Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Masked Series System Failures
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Alex Towell
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Alex Towell
Jun 7
maskedcauses: Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Masked Series System Failures
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r
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reliability
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5 min read
Review: A Symbolic Representation of Time Series, with Implications for Streaming Algorithms
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Alex Towell
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Alex Towell
Jun 7
Review: A Symbolic Representation of Time Series, with Implications for Streaming Algorithms
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timeseries
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computation
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symbolic
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7 min read
Going Back for a Second Master's, This Time in Math
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Alex Towell
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Alex Towell
Jun 7
Going Back for a Second Master's, This Time in Math
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personal
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2 min read
Model Selection for Weibull Series Systems: When Simpler Models Suffice
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Alex Towell
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Alex Towell
Jun 7
Model Selection for Weibull Series Systems: When Simpler Models Suffice
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statistics
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reliability
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weibulldistribution
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modelselection
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3 min read
Graduate Statistics Problem Sets
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Alex Towell
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Alex Towell
Jun 7
Graduate Statistics Problem Sets
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statistics
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r
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2 min read
Predicciones de fútbol con Poisson, xG y calibración: qué puede hacer la IA
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Khavel
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Khavel
Jun 4
Predicciones de fútbol con Poisson, xG y calibración: qué puede hacer la IA
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machinelearning
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probability
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3 min read
Conformal prediction silently breaks under drift - and how to make it hold
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Whatsonyourmind
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Whatsonyourmind
Jun 17
Conformal prediction silently breaks under drift - and how to make it hold
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machinelearning
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python
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statistics
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4 min read
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