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Measure giving the average loss beyond a specified Value-at-Risk level

In financial mathematics, tail value at risk (TVaR), also known as tail conditional expectation (TCE) or conditional tail expectation (CTE), is a risk measure associated with the more general value at risk. It quantifies the expected value of the loss given that an event outside a given probability level has occurred.

Background

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There are a number of related, but subtly different, formulations for TVaR in the literature. A common case in literature is to define TVaR and average value at risk as the same measure.[1] Under some formulations, it is only equivalent to expected shortfall when the underlying distribution function is continuous at πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {VaR} _{\alpha }(X)}
, the value at risk of level πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \alpha }
.[2] Under some other settings, TVaR is the conditional expectation of loss above a given value, whereas the expected shortfall is the product of this value with the probability of it occurring.[3] The former definition may not be a coherent risk measure in general, however it is coherent if the underlying distribution is continuous.[4] The latter definition is a coherent risk measure.[3] TVaR accounts for the severity of the failure, not only the chance of failure. The TVaR is a measure of the expectation only in the tail of the distribution.

Mathematical definition

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The canonical tail value at risk is the left-tail (large negative values) in some disciplines and the right-tail (large positive values) in other, such as actuarial science. This is usually due to the differing conventions of treating losses as large negative or positive values. Using the negative value convention, Artzner and others define the tail value at risk as:

Given a random variable πŸ‘ {\displaystyle X}
which is the payoff of a portfolio at some future time and given a parameter πŸ‘ {\displaystyle 0<\alpha <1}
then the tail value at risk is defined by[5][6][7][8] πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)=\operatorname {E} [-X|X\leq -\operatorname {VaR} _{\alpha }(X)]=\operatorname {E} [-X|X\leq x^{\alpha }],}
where πŸ‘ {\displaystyle x^{\alpha }}
is the upper πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \alpha }
-quantile given by πŸ‘ {\displaystyle x^{\alpha }=\inf\{x\in \mathbb {R} :\Pr(X\leq x)>\alpha \}}
. Typically the payoff random variable πŸ‘ {\displaystyle X}
is in some Lp-space where πŸ‘ {\displaystyle p\geq 1}
to guarantee the existence of the expectation. The typical values for πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \alpha }
are 5% and 1%.

Formulas for continuous probability distributions

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Closed-form formulas exist for calculating TVaR when the payoff of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle X}
or a corresponding loss πŸ‘ {\displaystyle L=-X}
follows a specific continuous distribution. If πŸ‘ {\displaystyle X}
follows some probability distribution with the probability density function (p.d.f.) πŸ‘ {\displaystyle f}
and the cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.) πŸ‘ {\displaystyle F}
, the left-tail TVaR can be represented as

πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)=\operatorname {E} [-X|X\leq -\operatorname {VaR} _{\alpha }(X)]={\frac {1}{\alpha }}\int _{0}^{\alpha }\operatorname {VaR} _{\gamma }(X)d\gamma =-{\frac {1}{\alpha }}\int _{-\infty }^{F^{-1}(\alpha )}xf(x)dx.}

For engineering or actuarial applications it is more common to consider the distribution of losses πŸ‘ {\displaystyle L=-X}
, in this case the right-tail TVaR is considered (typically for πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \alpha }
95% or 99%):

πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }^{\text{right}}(L)=E[L\mid L\geq \operatorname {VaR} _{\alpha }(L)]={\frac {1}{1-\alpha }}\int _{\alpha }^{1}\operatorname {VaR} _{\gamma }(L)d\gamma ={\frac {1}{1-\alpha }}\int _{F^{-1}(\alpha )}^{+\infty }yf(y)dy.}

Since some formulas below were derived for the left-tail case and some for the right-tail case, the following reconciliations can be useful:

πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)=-{\frac {1}{\alpha }}E[X]+{\frac {1-\alpha }{\alpha }}\operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }^{\text{right}}(L)}
and πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }^{\text{right}}(L)={\frac {1}{1-\alpha }}E[L]+{\frac {\alpha }{1-\alpha }}\operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X).}

Normal distribution

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If the payoff of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle X}
follows normal (Gaussian) distribution with the p.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle f(x)={\frac {1}{{\sqrt {2\pi }}\sigma }}e^{-{\frac {(x-\mu )^{2}}{2\sigma ^{2}}}}}
then the left-tail TVaR is equal to πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)=-\mu +\sigma {\frac {\phi (\Phi ^{-1}(\alpha ))}{\alpha }},}
where πŸ‘ {\textstyle \phi (x)={\frac {1}{\sqrt {2\pi }}}e^{-{x^{2}}/{2}}}
is the standard normal p.d.f., πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \Phi (x)}
is the standard normal c.d.f., so πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \Phi ^{-1}(\alpha )}
is the standard normal quantile.[9]

If the loss of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle L}
follows normal distribution, the right-tail TVaR is equal to[10] πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }^{\text{right}}(L)=\mu +\sigma {\frac {\phi (\Phi ^{-1}(\alpha ))}{1-\alpha }}.}

Generalized Student's t-distribution

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If the payoff of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle X}
follows generalized Student's t-distribution with the p.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle f(x)={\frac {\Gamma \left({\frac {\nu +1}{2}}\right)}{\Gamma \left({\frac {\nu }{2}}\right){\sqrt {\pi \nu }}\sigma }}\left(1+{\frac {1}{\nu }}\left({\frac {x-\mu }{\sigma }}\right)^{2}\right)^{-{\frac {\nu +1}{2}}}}
then the left-tail TVaR is equal to πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)=-\mu +\sigma {\frac {\nu +(\mathrm {T} ^{-1}(\alpha ))^{2}}{\nu -1}}{\frac {\tau (\mathrm {T} ^{-1}(\alpha ))}{\alpha }},}
where πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \tau (x)={\frac {\Gamma \left({\frac {\nu +1}{2}}\right)}{\Gamma \left({\frac {\nu }{2}}\right){\sqrt {\pi \nu }}}}\left(1+{\frac {x^{2}}{\nu }}\right)^{-{\frac {\nu +1}{2}}}}
is the standard t-distribution p.d.f., πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \mathrm {T} (x)}
is the standard t-distribution c.d.f., so πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \mathrm {T} ^{-1}(\alpha )}
is the standard t-distribution quantile.[9]

If the loss of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle L}
follows generalized Student's t-distribution, the right-tail TVaR is equal to[10] πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }^{\text{right}}(L)=\mu +\sigma {\frac {\nu +(\mathrm {T} ^{-1}(\alpha ))^{2}}{\nu -1}}{\frac {\tau (\mathrm {T} ^{-1}(\alpha ))}{1-\alpha }}.}

Laplace distribution

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If the payoff of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle X}
follows Laplace distribution with the p.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle f(x)={\frac {1}{2b}}e^{-{\frac {|x-\mu |}{b}}}}
and the c.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle F(x)={\begin{cases}1-{\frac {1}{2}}e^{-{\frac {x-\mu }{b}}}&{\text{if }}x\geq \mu ,\\{\frac {1}{2}}e^{\frac {x-\mu }{b}}&{\text{if }}x<\mu .\end{cases}}}
then the left-tail TVaR is equal to πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)=-\mu +b(1-\ln 2\alpha )}
for πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \alpha \leq 0.5}
.[9]

If the loss of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle L}
follows Laplace distribution, the right-tail TVaR is equal to[10] πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }^{\text{right}}(L)={\begin{cases}\mu +b{\frac {\alpha }{1-\alpha }}(1-\ln 2\alpha )&{\text{if }}\alpha <0.5,\\[1ex]\mu +b[1-\ln(2(1-\alpha ))]&{\text{if }}\alpha \geq 0.5.\end{cases}}}

Logistic distribution

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If the payoff of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle X}
follows logistic distribution with the p.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle f(x)={\frac {1}{s}}e^{-{\frac {x-\mu }{s}}}\left(1+e^{-{\frac {x-\mu }{s}}}\right)^{-2}}
and the c.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle F(x)=\left(1+e^{-{\frac {x-\mu }{s}}}\right)^{-1}}
then the left-tail TVaR is equal to[9] πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)=-\mu +s\ln {\frac {(1-\alpha )^{1-{\frac {1}{\alpha }}}}{\alpha }}.}

If the loss of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle L}
follows logistic distribution, the right-tail TVaR is equal to[10] πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }^{\text{right}}(L)=\mu +s{\frac {-\alpha \ln \alpha -(1-\alpha )\ln(1-\alpha )}{1-\alpha }}.}

Exponential distribution

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If the loss of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle L}
follows exponential distribution with the p.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle f(x)={\begin{cases}\lambda e^{-\lambda x}&{\text{if }}x\geq 0,\\0&{\text{if }}x<0.\end{cases}}}
and the c.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle F(x)={\begin{cases}1-e^{-\lambda x}&{\text{if }}x\geq 0,\\0&{\text{if }}x<0.\end{cases}}}
then the right-tail TVaR is equal to[10] πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }^{\text{right}}(L)={\frac {-\ln(1-\alpha )+1}{\lambda }}.}

Pareto distribution

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If the loss of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle L}
follows Pareto distribution with the p.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle f(x)={\begin{cases}{\frac {ax_{m}^{a}}{x^{a+1}}}&{\text{if }}x\geq x_{m},\\0&{\text{if }}x<x_{m}.\end{cases}}}
and the c.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle F(x)={\begin{cases}1-(x_{m}/x)^{a}&{\text{if }}x\geq x_{m},\\0&{\text{if }}x<x_{m}.\end{cases}}}
then the right-tail TVaR is equal to[10] πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }^{\text{right}}(L)={\frac {x_{m}a}{(1-\alpha )^{1/a}(a-1)}}.}

Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD)

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If the loss of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle L}
follows GPD with the p.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle f(x)={\frac {1}{s}}\left(1+{\frac {\xi (x-\mu )}{s}}\right)^{\left(-{\frac {1}{\xi }}-1\right)}}
and the c.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle F(x)={\begin{cases}1-\left(1+{\frac {\xi (x-\mu )}{s}}\right)^{-{\frac {1}{\xi }}}&{\text{if }}\xi \neq 0,\\1-\exp \left(-{\frac {x-\mu }{s}}\right)&{\text{if }}\xi =0.\end{cases}}}
then the right-tail TVaR is equal to πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }^{\text{right}}(L)={\begin{cases}\mu +s\left[{\frac {(1-\alpha )^{-\xi }}{1-\xi }}+{\frac {(1-\alpha )^{-\xi }-1}{\xi }}\right]&{\text{if }}\xi \neq 0,\\\mu +s[1-\ln(1-\alpha )]&{\text{if }}\xi =0.\end{cases}}}
and the VaR is equal to[10] πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \mathrm {VaR} _{\alpha }(L)={\begin{cases}\mu +s{\frac {(1-\alpha )^{-\xi }-1}{\xi }}&{\text{if }}\xi \neq 0,\\\mu -s\ln(1-\alpha )&{\text{if }}\xi =0.\end{cases}}}

Weibull distribution

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If the loss of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle L}
follows Weibull distribution with the p.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle f(x)={\begin{cases}{\frac {k}{\lambda }}\left({\frac {x}{\lambda }}\right)^{k-1}e^{-(x/\lambda )^{k}}&{\text{if }}x\geq 0,\\0&{\text{if }}x<0.\end{cases}}}
and the c.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle F(x)={\begin{cases}1-e^{-(x/\lambda )^{k}}&{\text{if }}x\geq 0,\\0&{\text{if }}x<0.\end{cases}}}
then the right-tail TVaR is equal to πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }^{\text{right}}(L)={\frac {\lambda }{1-\alpha }}\Gamma \left(1+{\frac {1}{k}},-\ln(1-\alpha )\right),}
where πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \Gamma (s,x)}
is the upper incomplete gamma function.[10]

Generalized extreme value distribution (GEV)

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If the payoff of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle X}
follows GEV with the p.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle f(x)={\begin{cases}{\frac {1}{\sigma }}\left(1+\xi {\frac {x-\mu }{\sigma }}\right)^{-{\frac {1}{\xi }}-1}\exp \left[-\left(1+\xi {\frac {x-\mu }{\sigma }}\right)^{-{\frac {1}{\xi }}}\right]&{\text{if }}\xi \neq 0,\\{\frac {1}{\sigma }}e^{-{\frac {x-\mu }{\sigma }}}e^{-e^{-{\frac {x-\mu }{\sigma }}}}&{\text{if }}\xi =0.\end{cases}}}
and the c.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle F(x)={\begin{cases}\exp \left(-\left(1+\xi {\frac {x-\mu }{\sigma }}\right)^{-{\frac {1}{\xi }}}\right)&{\text{if }}\xi \neq 0,\\\exp \left(-e^{-{\frac {x-\mu }{\sigma }}}\right)&{\text{if }}\xi =0.\end{cases}}}
then the left-tail TVaR is equal to πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)={\begin{cases}-\mu -{\frac {\sigma }{\alpha \xi }}\left[\Gamma (1-\xi ,-\ln \alpha )-\alpha \right]&{\text{if }}\xi \neq 0,\\-\mu -{\frac {\sigma }{\alpha }}\left[{\text{li}}(\alpha )-\alpha \ln(-\ln \alpha )\right]&{\text{if }}\xi =0.\end{cases}}}
and the VaR is equal to πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \mathrm {VaR} _{\alpha }(X)={\begin{cases}-\mu -{\frac {\sigma }{\xi }}\left[(-\ln \alpha )^{-\xi }-1\right]&{\text{if }}\xi \neq 0,\\-\mu +\sigma \ln(-\ln \alpha )&{\text{if }}\xi =0.\end{cases}}}
where πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \Gamma (s,x)}
is the upper incomplete gamma function, πŸ‘ {\displaystyle {\text{li}}(x)=\int {\frac {dx}{\ln x}}}
is the logarithmic integral function.[11]

If the loss of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle L}
follows GEV, then the right-tail TVaR is equal to πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)={\begin{cases}\mu +{\frac {\sigma }{(1-\alpha )\xi }}\left[\gamma (1-\xi ,-\ln \alpha )-(1-\alpha )\right]&{\text{if }}\xi \neq 0,\\\mu +{\frac {\sigma }{1-\alpha }}\left[y-{\text{li}}(\alpha )+\alpha \ln(-\ln \alpha )\right]&{\text{if }}\xi =0.\end{cases}}}
where πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \gamma (s,x)}
is the lower incomplete gamma function, πŸ‘ {\displaystyle y}
is the Euler-Mascheroni constant.[10]

Generalized hyperbolic secant (GHS) distribution

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If the payoff of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle X}
follows GHS distribution with the p.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle f(x)={\frac {1}{2\sigma }}\operatorname {sech} \left({\frac {\pi }{2}}{\frac {x-\mu }{\sigma }}\right)}
and the c.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle F(x)={\frac {2}{\pi }}\arctan \left[\exp \left({\frac {\pi }{2}}{\frac {x-\mu }{\sigma }}\right)\right]}
then the left-tail TVaR is equal to πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)=-\mu -{\frac {2\sigma }{\pi }}\ln \left(\tan {\frac {\pi \alpha }{2}}\right)-{\frac {2\sigma }{\pi ^{2}\alpha }}i\left[{\text{Li}}_{2}\left(-i\tan {\frac {\pi \alpha }{2}}\right)-{\text{Li}}_{2}\left(i\tan {\frac {\pi \alpha }{2}}\right)\right],}
where πŸ‘ {\displaystyle {\text{Li}}_{2}}
is the dilogarithm and πŸ‘ {\displaystyle i={\sqrt {-1}}}
is the imaginary unit.[11]

Johnson's SU-distribution

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If the payoff of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle X}
follows Johnson's SU-distribution with the c.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle F(x)=\Phi \left[\gamma +\delta \sinh ^{-1}\left({\frac {x-\xi }{\lambda }}\right)\right]}
then the left-tail TVaR is equal to πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)=-\xi -{\frac {\lambda }{2\alpha }}\left[\exp \left({\frac {1-2\gamma \delta }{2\delta ^{2}}}\right)\Phi \left(\Phi ^{-1}(\alpha )-{\frac {1}{\delta }}\right)-\exp \left({\frac {1+2\gamma \delta }{2\delta ^{2}}}\right)\Phi \left(\Phi ^{-1}(\alpha )+{\frac {1}{\delta }}\right)\right],}
where πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \Phi }
is the c.d.f. of the standard normal distribution.[12]

Burr type XII distribution

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If the payoff of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle X}
follows the Burr type XII distribution with the p.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle f(x)={\frac {ck}{\beta }}\left({\frac {x-\gamma }{\beta }}\right)^{c-1}\left[1+\left({\frac {x-\gamma }{\beta }}\right)^{c}\right]^{-k-1}}
and the c.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle F(x)=1-\left[1+\left({\frac {x-\gamma }{\beta }}\right)^{c}\right]^{-k},}
the left-tail TVaR is equal to πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)=-\gamma -{\frac {\beta }{\alpha }}\left((1-\alpha )^{-1/k}-1\right)^{1/c}\left[\alpha -1+{_{2}F_{1}}\left({\frac {1}{c}},k;1+{\frac {1}{c}};1-(1-\alpha )^{-1/k}\right)\right],}
where πŸ‘ {\displaystyle _{2}F_{1}}
is the hypergeometric function. Alternatively,[11] πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)=-\gamma -{\frac {\beta }{\alpha }}{\frac {ck}{c+1}}\left((1-\alpha )^{-1/k}-1\right)^{1+{\frac {1}{c}}}{_{2}F_{1}}\left(1+{\frac {1}{c}},k+1;2+{\frac {1}{c}};1-(1-\alpha )^{-1/k}\right).}

Dagum distribution

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If the payoff of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle X}
follows the Dagum distribution with the p.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle f(x)={\frac {ck}{\beta }}\left({\frac {x-\gamma }{\beta }}\right)^{ck-1}\left[1+\left({\frac {x-\gamma }{\beta }}\right)^{c}\right]^{-k-1}}
and the c.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle F(x)=\left[1+\left({\frac {x-\gamma }{\beta }}\right)^{-c}\right]^{-k},}
the left-tail TVaR is equal to πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)=-\gamma -{\frac {\beta }{\alpha }}{\frac {ck}{ck+1}}\left(\alpha ^{-1/k}-1\right)^{-k-{\frac {1}{c}}}{_{2}F_{1}}\left(k+1,k+{\frac {1}{c}};k+1+{\frac {1}{c}};-{\frac {1}{\alpha ^{-1/k}-1}}\right),}
where πŸ‘ {\displaystyle _{2}F_{1}}
is the hypergeometric function.[11]

Lognormal distribution

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If the payoff of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle X}
follows lognormal distribution, i.e. the random variable πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \ln(1+X)}
follows normal distribution with the p.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle f(x)={\frac {1}{{\sqrt {2\pi }}\sigma }}e^{-{\frac {(x-\mu )^{2}}{2\sigma ^{2}}}},}
then the left-tail TVaR is equal to πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)=1-\exp \left(\mu +{\frac {\sigma ^{2}}{2}}\right){\frac {\Phi (\Phi ^{-1}(\alpha )-\sigma )}{\alpha }},}
where πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \Phi (x)}
is the standard normal c.d.f., so πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \Phi ^{-1}(\alpha )}
is the standard normal quantile.[13]

Log-logistic distribution

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If the payoff of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle X}
follows log-logistic distribution, i.e. the random variable πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \ln(1+X)}
follows logistic distribution with the p.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle f(x)={\frac {1}{s}}e^{-{\frac {x-\mu }{s}}}\left(1+e^{-{\frac {x-\mu }{s}}}\right)^{-2},}
then the left-tail TVaR is equal to πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)=1-{\frac {e^{\mu }}{\alpha }}I_{\alpha }(1+s,1-s){\frac {\pi s}{\sin \pi s}},}
where πŸ‘ {\displaystyle I_{\alpha }}
is the regularized incomplete beta function, πŸ‘ {\displaystyle I_{\alpha }(a,b)={\frac {\mathrm {B} _{\alpha }(a,b)}{\mathrm {B} (a,b)}}}
.

As the incomplete beta function is defined only for positive arguments, for a more generic case the left-tail TVaR can be expressed with the hypergeometric function:[13] πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)=1-{\frac {e^{\mu }\alpha ^{s}}{s+1}}{_{2}F_{1}}(s,s+1;s+2;\alpha ).}

If the loss of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle L}
follows log-logistic distribution with p.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle f(x)={\frac {{\frac {b}{a}}(x/a)^{b-1}}{(1+(x/a)^{b})^{2}}}}
and c.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle F(x)={\frac {1}{1+(x/a)^{-b}}},}
then the right-tail TVaR is equal to πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }^{\text{right}}(L)={\frac {a}{1-\alpha }}\left[{\frac {\pi }{b}}\csc \left({\frac {\pi }{b}}\right)-\mathrm {B} _{\alpha }\left({\frac {1}{b}}+1,1-{\frac {1}{b}}\right)\right],}
where πŸ‘ {\displaystyle B_{\alpha }}
is the incomplete beta function.[10]

Log-Laplace distribution

[edit]

If the payoff of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle X}
follows log-Laplace distribution, i.e. the random variable πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \ln(1+X)}
follows Laplace distribution the p.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle f(x)={\frac {1}{2b}}e^{-{\frac {|x-\mu |}{b}}},}
then the left-tail TVaR is equal to[13] πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)={\begin{cases}1-{\frac {e^{\mu }(2\alpha )^{b}}{b+1}}&{\text{if }}\alpha \leq 0.5,\\1-{\frac {e^{\mu }2^{-b}}{\alpha (b-1)}}\left[(1-\alpha )^{(1-b)}-1\right]&{\text{if }}\alpha >0.5.\end{cases}}}

Log-generalized hyperbolic secant (log-GHS) distribution

[edit]

If the payoff of a portfolio πŸ‘ {\displaystyle X}
follows log-GHS distribution, i.e. the random variable πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \ln(1+X)}
follows GHS distribution with the p.d.f. πŸ‘ {\displaystyle f(x)={\frac {1}{2\sigma }}\operatorname {sech} \left({\frac {\pi }{2}}{\frac {x-\mu }{\sigma }}\right),}
then the left-tail TVaR is equal to πŸ‘ {\displaystyle \operatorname {TVaR} _{\alpha }(X)=1-{\frac {1}{\alpha (\sigma +{\pi /2})}}\left(\tan {\frac {\pi \alpha }{2}}\exp {\frac {\pi \mu }{2\sigma }}\right)^{2\sigma /\pi }\tan {\frac {\pi \alpha }{2}}{_{2}F_{1}}\left(1,{\frac {1}{2}}+{\frac {\sigma }{\pi }};{\frac {3}{2}}+{\frac {\sigma }{\pi }};-\tan \left({\frac {\pi \alpha }{2}}\right)^{2}\right),}
where πŸ‘ {\displaystyle _{2}F_{1}}
is the hypergeometric function.[13]

References

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  1. ^ BargΓ¨s; Cossette, Marceau (2009). "TVaR-based capital allocation with copulas". Insurance: Mathematics and Economics. 45 (3): 348–361. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.366.9837. doi:10.1016/j.insmatheco.2009.08.002.
  2. ^ "Average Value at Risk" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on July 19, 2011. Retrieved February 2, 2011.
  3. ^ a b Sweeting, Paul (2011). "15.4 Risk Measures". Financial Enterprise Risk Management. International Series on Actuarial Science. Cambridge University Press. pp. 397–401. ISBN 978-0-521-11164-5. LCCN 2011025050.
  4. ^ Acerbi, Carlo; Tasche, Dirk (2002). "On the coherence of Expected Shortfall". Journal of Banking and Finance. 26 (7): 1487–1503. arXiv:cond-mat/0104295. doi:10.1016/s0378-4266(02)00283-2. S2CID 511156.
  5. ^ Artzner, Philippe; Delbaen, Freddy; Eber, Jean-Marc; Heath, David (1999). "Coherent Measures of Risk" (PDF). Mathematical Finance. 9 (3): 203–228. doi:10.1111/1467-9965.00068. S2CID 6770585. Retrieved February 3, 2011.
  6. ^ Landsman, Zinoviy; Valdez, Emiliano (February 2004). "Tail Conditional Expectations for Exponential Dispersion Models" (PDF). Retrieved February 3, 2011. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  7. ^ Landsman, Zinoviy; Makov, Udi; Shushi, Tomer (July 2013). "Tail Conditional Expectations for Generalized Skew - Elliptical distributions". doi:10.2139/ssrn.2298265. S2CID 117342853. SSRN 2298265. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  8. ^ Valdez, Emiliano (May 2004). "The Iterated Tail Conditional Expectation for the Log-Elliptical Loss Process" (PDF). Retrieved February 3, 2010. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  9. ^ a b c d Khokhlov, Valentyn (2016). "Conditional Value-at-Risk for Elliptical Distributions". EvropskΓ½ časopis Ekonomiky a Managementu. 2 (6): 70–79.
  10. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Norton, Matthew; Khokhlov, Valentyn; Uryasev, Stan (2018-11-27). "Calculating CVaR and bPOE for Common Probability Distributions With Application to Portfolio Optimization and Density Estimation". arXiv:1811.11301 [q-fin.RM].
  11. ^ a b c d Khokhlov, Valentyn (2018-06-21). "Conditional Value-at-Risk for Uncommon Distributions". SSRN. SSRN 3200629.
  12. ^ Stucchi, Patrizia (2011-05-31). "Moment-Based CVaR Estimation: Quasi-Closed Formulas". SSRN. SSRN 1855986.
  13. ^ a b c d Khokhlov, Valentyn (2018-06-17). "Conditional Value-at-Risk for Log-Distributions". SSRN. SSRN 3197929.