For the past six months, every time Siddaramaiah was asked about speculation over the Karnataka Chief Minister post, he would say he would step down when the high command asked him to. Behind this assertion was probably a belief that Rahul Gandhi, the Leader of the Opposition in Lok Sabha, would not clear a change of guard in the southern state.

But he did, and the high command made it clear to the Congress veteran that it was time. Siddaramaiah resigned yesterday, clearing the way for DK Shivakumar, the Deputy Chief Minister and the state Congress chief, who had to settle for the lesser role after the Congress won the 2023 state polls in Karnataka.

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The Karnataka shift reflects a lesson the Congress learnt four years back in a state nearly 2,000 km away: Rajasthan.

The Congress had scored a thumping win in the 2018 Rajasthan polls, and Ashok Gehlot formed the government. At the time, Sachin Pilot, a prominent young face in the Grand Old Party who led the state Congress unit into polls, had to be content with the Deputy Chief Minister post. In 2020, Pilot led a revolt, claiming the support of 18 MLAs. The Congress high command moved into damage-control mode and a truce was brokered. Insiders had then said that Pilot was pacified with the promise of the Chief Minister post in the last year of the government’s term.

Two years later, when Gehlot expressed interest in running for the Congress president’s post, the Congress high command called a legislative party meeting of its Rajasthan MLAs, with a plan: as Gehlot takes up a Delhi role, Pilot could be named Chief Minister. But Gehlot engineered a revolt by the Congress MLAs in Rajasthan, who threatened to resign if the party moved to appoint Pilot the Chief Minister.

Wary of a government collapse, the high command relented and dropped the plan. Gehlot, however, paid a price. The Congress leadership viewed his move as indiscipline, and his bid for the party chief’s post was thrown out. The veteran continued as Chief Minister. Pilot, who had lost the state chief and Deputy Chief Minister posts two years back, got nothing.

The impact of the factional feud played out the next year, as the BJP scored a stellar win over a divided Congress and returned to power.

There are no formulas for electoral success. The Congress knows this after its move to replace Amarinder Singh as Chief Minister months before the Punjab Assembly polls backfired, costing it the 2022 election. Walking on eggshells, the high command calibrated its Karnataka move.

The high command knows Siddaramaiah is the tallest leader of backward classes in Karnataka, and social justice is at the centre of the Congress discourse. But there is a very strong argument in favour of Shivakumar: reward.

Over the past several years, the Congress has seen big-ticket exits, with many of its prominent young leaders switching to the BJP. Analysts have often said these leaders did not feel valued in the party, as the high command surrendered to pressure tactics by veteran leaders. This was also spoken of during the Rajasthan crisis and many expected Pilot to change camps, but he did not. In Karnataka, the party’s think tank reasoned that Shivakumar, who played a key role in the Congress’s 2023 victory, needed to be rewarded. The high command also thought of the 2028 state polls and concluded that Shivakumar would leave no stone unturned to bring the Congress back to power to keep the Chief Minister post.

On the other side was Siddaramaiah, who has already said he won’t be contesting the next election. The party wondered if it was prudent to put its weight behind the veteran, who has nothing to gain from the next election.

Congress insiders have expressed surprise over the agility of Rahul Gandhi’s decision-making over the past couple of months. First, the Congress walked out of its long alliance with the DMK in Tamil Nadu and joined hands with actor-politician Vijay’s TVK, which stunned in its maiden election. The Grand Old Party was then faced with a Kerala challenge, where it had to choose between Gandhi loyalist KC Venugopal and VD Satheesan, a six-time MLA who was seen as the ‘people’s choice’. The high command eventually backed Satheesan. And now, it has okayed the Karnataka change of guard. Whether these decisions would play out well or turn into festering wounds is to be seen.