As the US-Israel war on Iran enters its second month with no signs of de-escalation, attention appears to be shifting towards diplomacy. On March 31, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar released a five-point peace plan.  

The plan calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities, peace talks at the earliest opportunity, protection of civilian and critical infrastructure, the restoration of normal maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and respect for the UN Charter and national sovereignty.

But does this plan have the essential elements of mediation in international conflicts? How does mediation work? 

Mediation in international conflict resolution plays a critical role in averting escalation, encouraging diplomacy and finding peaceful solutions. It is generally defined as a voluntary, non-coercive approach to conflict management, in which neutral third parties – called mediators – assist conflicting sides to negotiate an acceptable resolution of issues.

Mediators can be individuals, countries, and regional or international organisations that are not direct parties to the conflict. Crucially, mediation takes place when warring sides seek the help of third parties, and its outcome is non-binding.  

Jacob Bercovitch, a pioneer in the study of international mediation, argues in “Mediating international conflicts: examining the effectiveness of directive strategies” (co-authored with Su-Mi Lee) that due to voluntary and non-binding aspects of mediation, its success depends on the willingness of the disputants to resolve their conflict. 

Moreover, the success or failure of a mediation effort largely rests on strategies employed by a mediator. Noting that the practice and process of mediation is linked to mediators’ choice of strategic behaviour, Jacob Bercovitch identified three categories of mediator behaviour, based on William Sheppard’s taxonomy: These categories are:

Communication-facilitation strategies: Here mediators adopt a fairly passive role, seeking to make contact with the parties, gaining their trust, identifying issues and interests, and encouraging meaningful communication. 

Procedural-formulative strategies: Here mediators exert more formal control over the process and decide about sites and frequency of meetings, suggest procedures, highlight common interests, and reduce tensions. 

Directive strategies: These strategies represent the highest level of mediator involvement. Key tactics associated with it include altering conflicting parties’ expectations, making substantive suggestions and proposals, highlighting the costs of non-agreement, helping devise a framework for acceptable outcomes, and pressing the parties to show flexibility.

China and Pakistan’s peace plan does seek to de-escalate tensions, encourage communication, and shape the conduct of the warring parties. However, the plan doesn’t explicitly identify issues and interests or outcomes. 

At the same time, gaining the trust and confidence of the warring sides won’t be easy. While Pakistan enjoys good relations with Gulf Arab states, its engagement with Iran, as well as Israel, is limited and uneven, which may constrain its role as a credible mediator. Hence, experts note that the peace plan reveals much about how “China intends to manage its exposure to war”.

We would love to hear what you think about this new initiative. Send your comments at ashiya.parveen@indianexpress.com.

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