What began with a set of ‘decapitation’ strikes aimed at overthrowing the Islamic Regime in Iran has snowballed into a global energy crisis. US President Donald Trump has continued to defy expectations with a somersault and stretch routine – going from saying that Washington is “winding down” its operations to threatening to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants in a 24-hour window, then postponing that plan TWICE this week. Meanwhile, India has taken measures to cushion the effect of surging fuel prices on domestic consumers.

The war in West Asia has crossed the one-month mark. The prospect of de-escalation remains elusive as this week has been riddled with contradicting statements from Washington and Tehran about the status of the conflict.

Over the fourth week, the US has maintained its attacks on Iranian ballistic missiles and their supply chains. Israel, too, has continued with its ‘decapitation’ strikes on the Islamic Republic’s leaders in a bid to create the conditions for Iranians to overthrow the regime.

On the other hand, despite US President Donald Trump’s repeated threats, Iran has continued to hold a fifth of global energy supplies hostage with its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – the maritime chokepoint between the Gulf of Persia and the Gulf of Oman – while allowing vessels of “friendly nations” to pass through. This includes India, China, Russia, Pakistan, and Iraq.

The global energy crunch has compounded as a result of Iran’s strategy to ‘punish’ the US and its Gulf allies, with International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol saying on Monday that the disruption is worse than both of the 1970s oil crises and the Ukraine war combined.

To dampen the effect of the global oil supply disruption on prices, the Trump administration waived sanctions on 130 million barrels of Russian crude and 140 million barrels of Iranian crude in ships stranded at sea earlier this month.

However, experts argued the move is not enough to offset the disruption caused by the Hormuz closure, maintaining that the only reliable fix is reopening the strait itself, Newsweek reported.

Total fatalities: The war has claimed over 3,000 lives since it began on February 28.

👁 Iran war fourth week timeline

The week began with a whirlwind of developments, as Donald Trump announced plans to de-escalate and simultaneously waived sanctions on Iranian oil – developments that were soon followed by a major escalation and then another cooldown, all within a 24-hour time frame.

On Saturday (March 21), Donald Trump said he was considering “winding down” the US operations because Washington was “getting very close” to meeting its military objectives.

Trump’s comment came amid reports that the Pentagon is seeking $200 billion in additional funds from Congress for the war and has greenlit a large-scale deployment of naval assets and troops in the theatre.

As discussed last week, Axios had reported that the Trump administration was considering occupying or blockading Iran’s Kharg Island, which handles 90 per cent of Tehran’s crude exports.

On the same day, the US and Israel hit Natanz (a key Iranian nuclear facility) for the second time in the war. Iran retaliated with a missile barrage targeting two southern Israeli towns close to a nuclear facility, injuring approximately 180 people.

On Sunday, Trump went back online and issued a 48-hour ultimatum to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants unless Tehran unblocks the Strait of Hormuz. Iran did not budge; instead, it vowed to attack the infrastructure of its enemies.

On Monday, hours before the deadline was set to expire, Trump postponed the military strikes for another five days, claiming that negotiations with Tehran were underway.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, one of the most outspoken critics of Washington, denied any talks, saying that “fake news is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.”

On Thursday, Trump pushed the deadline back by another 10 days to April 6, claiming that he did it as per the Iranian government’s request.

Iran has maintained that no direct negotiations have taken place, but has acknowledged communication with Washington via three intermediaries – Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan.

The Associated Press reported that Iran received a 15-point plan for peace via Pakistan. Although the exact contents of the document are not known, the New York Times, citing officials, reported that it addressed Iran’s ballistic missile, nuclear programs, and maritime routes.

Iran rejected the proposal and set five conditions to end the war. Some of its demands include reparations, “a complete halt to aggression and assassinations,” and recognition of Tehran’s “exercise of sovereignty” over the Strait of Hormuz.

Islamabad has been seeking to play the role of mediator in the ongoing conflict and has offered to host talks on Pakistani soil.

PM Shehbaz Sharif posted that Pakistan was “ready and honoured” to moderate “meaningful and conclusive talks” between the United States and Iran. And Donald Trump shared the post on his X account.

Tehran has been selectively allowing vessels to pass through Hormuz. Iran’s representative to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) said that the Strait of Hormuz “is open to everyone except enemies”, CNN reported, citing local media.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Tehran is allowing vessels of “friendly nations” to pass through the Strait. Earlier this week, Iran permitted Japanese and South Korean ships to transit the Strait.

Amid Washington’s strained relations with European Nato allies owing to the conflict, such measures by Iran could put the US in a more difficult diplomatic spot as it seeks to rally support for its military campaign against Tehran.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US expects to finish its operations “in the next couple of weeks,” adding that its objectives were being achieved and were ahead of schedule.

At the beginning of the conflict, Donald Trump said that the campaign could last “four to five weeks”, while downplaying Iran’s ability to strike back and drag the conflict on.

Rubio was in France, attending a meeting of foreign ministers from the G7 – the group of major Western economies – where the impact of the war and closure of the Hormuz were discussed.

Following recurring reports of US plans to take over Kharg Island, Iran on Thursday threatened to disrupt trade in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait – the strategically vital waterway that connects the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea.

The Strait is in proximity to territories occupied by the Houthis, a Shia militant group in Yemen that owes allegiance to the clerical establishment in Iran.

The Houthis are a Shia militant group that controls large swathes of land in Yemen. The group was formed in the 1990s to combat marginalisation under a predominantly Sunni-led government backed by Saudi Arabia.

Alongside the Palestinian group Hamas and the Lebanese outfit Hezbollah, the Houthis are part of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ – a collective term used to describe the Iran-led coalition of state and non-state actors in West Asia committed to opposing US and Israeli influence.

The outfit, belonging to the Zaydiyyah (or Fiver) branch of Shia Islam, receives monetary and logistical support from the Shia theocratic establishment in Iran (the latter belongs to the Twelver sect).

The group clashes with the recognised Yemeni government to tackle the spread of Salafism and Wahhabism – two conservative strands of Sunni Islam.

During the Israel-Hamas War, which broke out in October 2023, the Houthis joined the fight by launching drones and missiles at Israel and attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea to support Palestinians.

The insurance cost of shipping goods went up by approximately 1 per cent during that period.

Israel has been conducting ‘decapitation’ strikes on the Islamic Republic’s leaders in a bid to embolden Iranians to overthrow the regime. So far, the plan has not yielded its dividends.  

This may be because the bulk of protesters were killed and the political will was crushed in January, when Tehran launched a brutal crackdown on the anti-regime uprising.  

Even then, a more plausible argument would be the scale required to meet this objective, experts pointed out to The New York Times.

Israel used this strategy during its war with Hamas and Hezbollah, which significantly hindered the groups’ ability to fight back – ultimately, playing a key role in bringing them to the negotiation table.

Israel’s fight with Hezbollah reignited after Tel Aviv killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Hamas (a Sunni group), however, has decided to move forward with Trump’s peace plan for Gaza, even urging Iran to stop its assault on Gulf-Arab countries aligned with Washington.

Israel has replicated the strategy in its war with Iran, opening with the targeted killing of Ali Khamenei, along with several other senior political and military leaders.

However, achieving the same level of success against Tehran would be a drastically different task. This is not a militant group or any other non-state actor, but an establishment dominated by hardliners that has crystallised for nearly five decades.

Both Khamenei and Ali Larijani, Iran’s de facto wartime leader who was killed in an Israeli airstrike last week, have been replaced since their death. On Wednesday, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, a former IRGC commander, was appointed to take over Larijani’s role.

Hence, Tel Aviv has just begun scratching the surface of Tehran’s leadership. ‘Decapitation’ strikes alone are unlikely to lead to regime change or force Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions — especially as wartime nationalism among the Iranian public has surged, bolstering support for the regime.

As the conflict in West Asia coincided with the Budget Session in India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered a speech in Parliament, highlighting the severity of the supply chain disruptions and the measures the Centre has taken to tackle the crisis.

The Centre has also slashed the Special Additional Excise Duty (SAED) on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 per litre each on Friday (March 27). The move is aimed at keeping the retail prices of the two fuels stable by offsetting the losses incurred by oil marketing companies (OMCs).

Shock absorption: Brent crude futures were $110.86 a barrel on Friday, compared to $73 a barrel before the West Asia conflict began on February 28. West Texas Intermediate futures were up to $97.01 from $67 per barrel.

OMCs were absorbing the shock by retaining retail prices. They were incurring losses of Rs 24 per litre on petrol sales and Rs 30 per litre on diesel sales due to the international price surge.

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