Liam Karr

Houthi Escalation Calculus Following Cautious Entry into the Iran War

Houthis’ Potential Impact on Africa; DRC Commences Anti-FDLR Ops: Africa File, April 2, 2026

IS Targets Morocco and Spain; M23 Pulls Back in Eastern DRC: Africa File, March 26, 2026

Sudan War Continues Despite Iran War, Peace Efforts: Africa File, March 19, 2026

US Sanctions Sudanese Islamists; ISWAP Ramadan Offensive: Africa File, March 12, 2026

Anti-American Protests in Nigeria; US Sanctions Rwanda; Ethiopia Deepens Involvement in Sudan: Africa File, March 5, 2026

Iran War’s Impact on the Red Sea and Horn of Africa: Africa File Special Edition

The Yemeni Houthis and Iran could target Emirati, Israeli, or US positions in the Horn of Africa and across the continent as part of the ...

DRC Offensive Kills M23 Leader; Russia Reinforces Sahel: Africa File, February 26, 2026

Madagascar Juggles Russia, US, France; Stuttering US Peace Efforts in Sudan: Africa File, February 19, 2026

Military Buildup in Northern Ethiopia; US-Linked Personnel in the DRC and Nigeria; South Sudan’s Slide to Civil War: Africa File, February 12, 2026

Boko Massacre in Nigeria; Ethiopia on the Brink; M23 Drone Attack; IS Attacks Niamey: Africa File, February 5, 2026

Red Sea Showdown Brewing in Northern Somalia; New Fronts in Sudan: Africa File, January 29, 2026

Chad Tensions Strain RSF Supply Lines; African DRC Peace Efforts; Fano Merger: Africa File, January 22, 2026

Sudan. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) conducted an attack on Chadian forces in Chad, increasing tensions with a key partner in the United...

Somalia Cancels UAE Agreements; Sudan-Pakistan Arms Deal: Africa File, January 15, 2026

Israel Recognizes Somaliland; US ISIS Strikes in Nigeria; JNIM Attacks US Gold Mine in Mali: Africa File, January 8, 2026

M23 Withdraws From Uvira; Saudi-UAE Red Sea Competition: Africa File, December 18, 2025

M23 Captures Uvira; Benin Coup; RSF Captures Key Sudanese Oil Hub: Africa File, December 11, 2025

Fresh M23 Offensives amid Trump DRC Peace Talks; Guinea-Bissau Coup; Sudan-Russia Naval Base: Africa File, December 4, 2025

The U.S. Can Outcompete China in Africa

Salafi-Jihadi Areas of Operation in West Africa Interactive Map and Campaign Analysis

Map of Salafi-jihadi activity in West Africa that includes JNIM, IS Sahel Province, IS West Africa Province, and Boko Haram across Burkin...

DRC-M23 Doha Peace Framework; Togo-Russia Ties: Africa File, November 20, 2025

DRC and Rwanda Sign US Economic Framework: Africa File, November 13, 2025

Impending Offensives in Central Sudan; Ethnic Cleansing in el Fasher; Deadly Crackdown in Tanzania: Africa File, November 6, 2025

El Fasher Falls; Islamic State Kidnaps American: Africa File, October 30, 2025

JNIM Imposes Shari’a via Blockade; Burundi Hedges in the Eastern DRC: Africa File, October 23, 2025

DRC-M23 Ceasefire Mechanism; Cameroonian Elections: Africa File, October 16, 2025

What the Madagascar Coup Means for Africa, Mining, and Competition in the Indian Ocean: Africa File Special Edition

The Malagasy military took power in Madagascar in response to weeks of massive youth-led, anti-corruption protests and the resulting cons...

Mali Negotiates Amid JNIM Blockade; M23 Numbers Swell: Africa File, October 9, 2025

Russian Nuclear Energy Diplomacy; New Fano Offensive in Ethiopia: Africa File, October 2, 2025

DRC Ceasefire Collapse; Turkish Troops to Niger; El Fasher on the Brink: Africa File, September 25, 2025

SAF Gains in Central Sudan; DRC Ethnic Violence: Africa File, September 18, 2025

JNIM Economic Warfare: Africa File, September 11, 2025

Mali. Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate has begun forcibly enforcing its blockade on western Mali, escalating a new phase of economic warfare...

M23’s State-Building Project: Africa File Special Edition

Rwandan-backed M23 has launched a systematic state-building project to translate its military gains in the eastern Democratic Republic of...

South Africa Attempts Internal Congolese Dialogue; JNIM Controls Farabougou: Africa File, September 4, 2025

Democratic Republic of the Congo. DRC President Félix Tshisekedi rejected an invitation to participate in a regional peace conference in ...

IS Somalia Final Stand; Egypt-Ethiopia Rivalry in Somalia: Africa File, August 28, 2025

M23 Massacres Undermine DRC Peace Process: Africa File, August 21, 2025

M23 Violates DRC Ceasefire, Mali Coup, El Fasher Assault: Africa File, August 14, 2025

DRC-M23 Peace Prospects: Africa File, August 7, 2025

Challenges to Sustainable DRC-M23 Peace

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), M23, and Rwanda will likely remain involved with Qatari-brokered negotiations and the broader...

Challenges to Sustainable DRC-M23 Peace: Africa File Special Edition

Russia, US Compete in West Africa: Africa File, July 31, 2025

DRC-M23 Ceasefire: Africa File, July 24, 2025

Trump’s Dual Opportunity in Sudan

Trump’s foreign and domestic policy goals clash in Africa — can he thread this needle?

Russian Info Ops; Attritional Battles in Sudan: Africa File, July 17, 2025

First Trump Africa Summit; DRC Tensions; Shabaab Momentum: Africa File, July 10, 2025

US-Africa Summit. The United States will discuss critical minerals, defense partnerships, economic cooperation, and migration during a th...

JNIM Attacks Across Mali; Biya Faces Challengers in Cameroon: Africa File, July 3, 2025

Cameroon. Cameroonian President Paul Biya is facing a split within his ruling coalition amid uncertainty about his plans to run for his e...

US-DRC-Rwanda Peace Deal—A Beginning, Not an End: Congo War Security Review Special Edition

Tigray Tensions; IS Sahel Offensive: Africa File, June 26, 2025

UAE Fuels Regionalization of Sudan War; JNIM Expands Along Benin-Nigeria Border: Africa File, June 18, 2025

Sudan. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) captured several areas in far northwestern Sudan near the Sudan-Egypt-Libya tri-border area, likely...

Wagner Out, Africa Corps In: Africa File, June 12, 2025

Russia. The Russian Wagner Group formally withdrew from Mali, as the Kremlin continues to transition control of its military operations i...

Africa File, May 1, 2025: AU, Turkey, and United States Surge to Halt al Shabaab; DRC Peace Talks; Uganda’s Role in the Eastern DRC

Somalia’s international partners are increasing their efforts to counter al Shabaab in response to the group’s significant gains in 2025....

Africa File Special Edition: Uganda in the DRC’s M23 Conflict—Friend to All, Enemy to None

Uganda is working with actors on multiple sides of the conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to hedge and streng...

Congo War Security Review Special Edition: Slow and Steady—What to Make of DRC-M23 Peace Talks

A détente between the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda will likely limit the scale of violence in the eastern DRC, but p...

Africa File, April 24, 2025: JNIM’s Growing Pressure on Benin; Turkey to Somalia; Salafi-Jihadi Cells Continue to Grow Across Nigeria

Benin. Al Qaeda’s affiliate in the Sahel carried out its deadliest-ever attack in Benin as it continues to increase the lethality of its ...

Africa File, April 17, 2025: RSF War Crimes and Possible Genocide; al Shabaab Retaking Central Somalia; M23 Challenges; Algeria-Mali Spat

Sudan. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has committed numerous war crimes as the group has intensified its efforts to consolidate control o...

Congo War Security Review, April 14, 2025

M23 repelled a pro-Congolese government Wazalendo militia offensive to recapture Goma from M23. M23 accused Southern African Development ...

Congo War Security Review, April 10, 2025

DRC and M23 engage in another session of Qatari-mediated negotiations. Pro-Congolese government Wazalendo militias recaptured up to a doz...

Africa File, April 10, 2025: The RSF’s Northern Sudan Campaign

A Trump-Congo minerals deal may not be worth the risk

Congo War Security Review, April 7, 2025

Representatives from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and M23 completed an initial round of Qatari-mediated peace talks ahead o...

Africa File, April 3, 2025: Russia-Sahel Summit; Sahelian Juntas Target Chinese Mining; M23 Loses Walikale but Uganda Leaves Vacuum

Russia. The Kremlin is strengthening its strategic relationships with Sahelian juntas to entrench Russian influence in the region and sec...

Congo War Security Review, April 1, 2025

The DRC and Rwandan-backed M23 rebels will engage in Qatar-mediated peace talks next week. Pro-Congolese government Wazalendo militias at...

Congo War Security Review, March 31, 2025

Representatives from the DRC, Rwanda, and Rwandan-backed M23 participated in Qatari-mediated peace talks in Doha, Qatar’s capital, but it...

Congo War Security Review, March 28, 2025

French media reported that Qatar has been hosting peace talks involving M23 rebels in Doha since March 27. M23 announced new efforts to f...

Congo War Security Review, March 27, 2025

The Congolese army (FARDC) and allied Wazalendo militia fighters continued their counteroffensive against M23 in Walikale town and the su...

Africa File, March 27, 2025: SAF Liberates Khartoum; Burundi and Rwanda Tensions

Sudan. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) fully retook central Khartoum and are clearing the last pockets of Rapid Support Forces (RSF) resi...

Congo War Security Review, March 26, 2025

M23 reinforced its position in Walikale town in western North Kivu and continued to clash with pro-Congolese government Wazalendo militia...

Congo War Security Review, March 25, 2025

Member states from the East African Community (EAC) and South African Development Community (SADC) held a virtual joint summit to discuss...

Congo War Security Review, March 24, 2025

M23 announced that it would withdraw from Walikale town in western North Kivu, but M23 has yet to vacate the district capital and has acc...

Congo War Security Review, March 21, 2025

M23 will reportedly participate in Qatari-mediated discussions in the coming days. Pro-Congolese government militias launched a counterat...

Congo War Security Review, March 20, 2025

DRC President Félix Tshisekedi touted the viability of a potential US-DRC minerals-for-security deal during an interview with Fox News. T...

Africa File, March 20, 2025: Qatari-Mediated Ceasefire in DRC; SAF Closes in on Khartoum; RSF Attacks Spread to South Sudan; Al Shabaab Ramadan Offensive; Tigray Simmers as Amhara Escalates; Russia’s Red Sea Efforts; Burkinabe Massacres

Democratic Republic of the Congo. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda agreed to a Qatari-mediated ceasefire, but fundam...

Congo War Security Review, March 19, 2025

Congo War Security Review, March 18, 2025

The Congolese army (FARDC) and allied militias halted M23’s advance towards the Walikale district capital in western North Kivu. Burundia...

Congo War Security Review, March 14, 2025

The Congolese army (FARDC) and allied militias blocked M23’s advance toward the district capital of Walikale territory and attacked M23’s...

Congo War Security Review, March 13, 2025

Africa File Special Edition: Tigray Threatens to Spark the Next Eritrean-Ethiopian War and Plunge the Horn of Africa into Crisis

A violent power struggle in northern Ethiopia’s Tigray region risks sparking another civil war in Ethiopia, which could, in turn, expand ...

Africa File, March 13, 2025: Looming Civil Wars in Ethiopia, South Sudan Threaten to Plunge Horn into Crisis; Renewed Peace Talks in DRC as M23 Advances

Congo War Security Review, March 12, 2025

M23 continued its advance southward in central South Kivu in a possible attempt to bypass Congolese army (FARDC) and Burundian army posit...

Congo War Security Review, March 11, 2025

M23 advanced south of the South Kivu provincial capital of Bukavu to a key area that links to several other fronts in South Kivu. M23 con...

Congo War Security Review, March 10, 2025

M23 made significant advances toward Walikale district in western North Kivu after capturing a key gateway town along the main road in th...

Congo War Security Review, March 7, 2025

Top officials from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) rejected the East African Community’s (EAC) and South African Development C...

Congo War Security Review, March 6, 2025

M23 advanced toward the Lubero district capital in northern North Kivu on the western flank of Congolese army positions, but Ugandan forc...

Africa File, March 6, 2025: Burundi and Rwanda Truce in Eastern DRC Despite M23 Advance; SAF Targets RSF Supply Lines in Darfur; Sahelian Jihadists Tap Trans-Saharan Networks

Congo War Security Review, March 5, 2025

DRC President Félix Tshisekedi dispatched figures within his inner circle and mining industry officials to the United States and the Unit...

Congo War Security Review, March 4, 2025

M23 captured a village in the Lubero district to the west of the district capital, Lubero town, in another potential flanking effort. M23...

Congo War Security Review, March 3, 2025

Pro-Congolese government militias launched counterattacks against M23-aligned rebels that likely involved ethnically-motivated retaliator...

Congo War Security Review, February 28, 2025

Key Takeaway: The East African Community (EAC) and South African Development Community’s (SADC) indefinitely postponed a joint summit of ...

Congo War Security Review, February 27, 2025

M23 continued probing the Congolese army’s (FARDC) eastern flank in the Lubero district in northern North Kivu. M23 accused the Congolese...

Africa File, February 27, 2025: SAF Advances West Toward Darfur; M23 and DRC Reset as International Pressure Grows on Rwanda; ISSP Poses Clear Transnational Threat; al Shabaab Central Somalia Offensive

Sudan. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are advancing in south-central Sudan and setting conditions for an offensive into Rapid Support Fo...

Congo War Security Review, February 26, 2025

Burundian troops and pro-Congolese government militia are moving north from the DRC-Burundi border with pro-Congolese government militia ...

Congo War Security Review, February 25, 2025

The Congolese army (FARDC) is attempting to recapture a town and its nearby airstrip in South Kivu from the M23-aligned Twirwaneho rebels...

Congo War Security Review, February 25, 2025

The Congolese army (FARDC) is attempting to recapture a town and its nearby airstrip in South Kivu from the M23-aligned Twirwaneho rebels...

Congo War Security Review, February 24, 2025

The Congolese army (FARDC) blocked M23 attempts to flank FARDC positions in Lubero town, a district capital in northern North Kivu. M23-a...

Congo War Security Review, February 21, 2025

M23 captured two villages east of the RN2 in Lubero district in northern North Kivu Province in an attempt to flank Congolese army (FARDC...

Congo War Security Review, February 20, 2025

FARDC launched limited counterattacks south of the district capital, Lubero, in northern North Kivu province, but M23 is attempting to fl...

Africa File, February 20, 2025: M23 Advance Continues Unchallenged; SAF Grows Partnerships with Iran and Russia; RSF Creates Parallel Government in Sudan

Democratic Republic of the Congo. Rwandan-backed M23 captured the South Kivu provincial capital, Bukavu, and continued to advance on seve...

Africa File, February 13, 2025: SAF Announces Government Plan and Russian Naval Base; DRC Concedes to Direct Talks with M23; Turkey’s Growing Defense Partnerships in Africa

• Sudan. The leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) outlined plans for a new government that likely aims to legitimize the SAF as the ...

Africa File, February 6, 2025: M23 Unilateral Ceasefire; SAF Closes in on Khartoum; US Airstrikes in Northern Somalia; al Shabaab Reinfiltrates Central Somalia; IS Sahel Kidnapping Campaign; US-Algeria Relationship Grows

Sudan. The SAF is poised to secure a major victory by recapturing Khartoum and pushing the RSF west of the Nile. Securing these objective...

Africa File Special Edition: M23 March Threatens Expanded Conflict in DR Congo and Regional War in the Great Lakes

Rwandan-backed M23 rebels captured Goma, the provincial capital of North Kivu, which marks the most significant escalation in the conflic...

Africa File, January 30, 2025: Rwandan-Backed M23 Captures Goma; SAF Breakthroughs in Khartoum; IS Sahel Linked to Angola Plot Targeting Biden Visit; IS Calls for Jihad in Sudan; Somalia Agrees with Egypt in AUSSOM

Africa File, January 24, 2025

Africa File, January 24, 2025: Russia Continues Pivot to Libya and Mali; SAF Advances in Khartoum; M23 Marches On Goma; IS Somalia Down but Not Out; AES Joint Force

Africa File, January 9, 2025: Islamic State Suicide Attack in Somalia; AUSSOM Dysfunction; M23 Captures District Capital in Eastern DRC

The Islamic State’s Global Long Game and Resurgence in Syria Poses an Evolved Threat to the West

Africa File, December 19, 2024: Russia Reinforces Libya amid Syria Withdrawal; DRC-Rwanda Talks Collapse; Ethiopia’s Counter-Fano Campaign; ISSP Strangles Roadways in Niger; Ankara Declaration

Russia. Russia is reinforcing its positions in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa as it continues to consolidate in and withdraw some of its fo...

Africa File, December 12, 2024: Kremlin Pivot to Libya or Sudan Post-Syria; Turkey Mediates Ethiopia-Somalia Deal

Russia. Russia has maintained the security of its Syrian bases in the short term but expressed long-term uncertainty about the future of ...

Africa File, December 5, 2024: French Influence in Africa Erodes Further; Syria’s Impact on Russia in Africa and the Mediterranean; Somalia Political Dispute Turns Hot; DRC-Rwanda Peace Plans Move Ahead; Tuareg Setback

Africa File Special Edition: Syria’s Potential Impact on Russia’s Africa and Mediterranean Ambitions

Russia may redeploy Africa Corps units to Syria to reinforce the Assad regime in Syria to prevent Assad’s defeat, which would harm the Kr...

Africa File, November 21, 2024: Russian Mining in the Sahel; Sudan Ceasefire Still Unlikely; AU Mission in Somalia Uncertainty; IS Postelection Offensive in Mozambique

Salafi-Jihadi Areas of Operation in the Sahel

The latest update reflects extensive changes based on the strengthening of the regional al Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates—Jama’at Nus...

Africa File, November 14, 2024: Russia-Africa Ministerial Summit; AQ and IS Infiltrate Northwestern Nigeria; Jubbaland Goes Rogue

Russia. Russia used the first Russia-Africa Ministerial Summit to continue pushing narratives and securing deals that advance its strateg...

Africa File, October 31, 2024: Africa and BRICS; Sudan Fighting Fuels Humanitarian Disaster

BRICS. African engagement in the 2024 BRICS+ summit highlights that many African countries are primarily interested in the bloc’s economi...

Africa File, October 24, 2024: JNIM Strikes Northern Niger; DRC Peace Talks and M23 Offensive; Egypt-Djibouti Cooperation; Ethiopia-Somalia AUSSOM Tug-of-War; Central Somalia Offensive

Africa File, October 24, 2024: JNIM Strikes Northern Niger; DRC Peace Talks and M23 Offensive; Egypt-Djibouti Cooperation; Ethiopia-Somal...

Africa File, October 17, 2024: Egypt-Eritrea-Somalia Summit; Challenges with Tigray Peace Process

Africa File, October 10, 2024: DRC Attacks FDLR; Fano Counteroffensive; AUSSOM Issues; Mali’s Northern Challenges; Togo Border Pressure

Africa File, October 3, 2024: Khartoum Offensive; Internal Somali Rivalries; Benin Coup Attempt; Russia’s Projects in the Sahel

Sudan. The SAF launched an offensive to relieve several besieged units in Khartoum. Iranian or Turkish drones likely helped set condition...

Africa File, September 26, 2024: Fano Offensive in Ethiopia’s Amhara; Egypt Arms Somalia; Rebel Drones in Mali; Burkina Thwarts Another Coup

Ethiopia. Amhara ethno-nationalist militias known as Fano have waged an offensive in northern Ethiopia’s Amhara region since July that ha...

Africa File Special Edition: External Meddling for the Red Sea Exacerbates Conflicts in the Horn of Africa

Russia and several countries in the Middle East, including Iran, are taking advantage of conflicts that have emerged in Sudan and Somalia...

Africa File, September 19, 2024: JNIM Strikes Bamako; Hungary Enters the Sahel; Ethiopia-Somalia Proxy Risks

Africa File, September 12, 2024: China-Africa Forum (FOCAC) Takeaways; Mali and Russia Prepare to Avenge Defeat in Northern Mali

China. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) announced the highest total investment through the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) ...

Africa File, September 5, 2024: Egypt, Ethiopia, and Somalia Conflict Looms; IS Gains in Niger; Russia Aids Burkina Faso’s Nuclear Energy Push

Horn of Africa. Egypt is growing military cooperation with Somalia and deployed troops to Somalia, which is increasing tensions with Ethi...

Africa File, August 29, 2024: North African Competition in the Sahel; Libya on the Edge; Burkina Faso is Spiraling

North Africa–Sahel. Algeria and Morocco are vying for economic and political influence in the Sahel to assert themselves as regional lead...

Africa File, August 22, 2024: “AUSSOM” New AU Mission in Somalia; Burkina Faso Reaches Boiling Point

Somalia. The African Union (AU) and UN are advancing plans for an AU-led peacekeeping mission in Somalia after the current AU mission exp...

Africa File, August 8, 2024: Mali-Ukraine Dispute; Turkey Prepares to Ship Out to Somalia

Ukraine. Mali and Niger cut diplomatic ties with Ukraine and other West African countries have criticized Ukraine after some Ukrainian of...

Africa File, August 2, 2024: Russian Blunder in Mali; IS and JNIM Wreak Havoc in Niger; JNIM’s Border Havens Threaten Togo

Northern Mali. Tuareg insurgents with likely ties to the Tuareg separatist rebel coalition and al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate repelled a M...

Africa File Special Edition: Russia’s Deadly Blunder in Mali

Tuareg insurgents with likely ties to the Tuareg separatist rebel coalition and al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate repelled a Malian-Russian o...

Africa File, July 25, 2024: Turkish Inroads in Niger; al Shabaab’s Continued SVBIED Threat

Africa File Special Edition: One Year After Niger's Coup

Nigerien Diplomatic and Military Activity. Niger’s junta has significantly altered its international and regional partnerships away from ...

Africa File, July 18, 2024: Sudan Spillover Threatens Ethiopia

Key Takeaway: Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed met with Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) leader Abdel Fattah al Burhan in Sudan in early Ju...

Africa File, July 11, 2024: Sahelian Juntas vs. ECOWAS; US Base in Côte d’Ivoire

West Africa. The central Sahelian juntas in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger established a confederation that deepens their break with West ...

Africa File, June 20, 2024: Africa Crucial to IS Global Network; Burkinabe Junta Faces Coup Risk

IS in Africa. The reported presence of multiple high-level leaders in Somalia and across Africa reflects Africa’s increasingly focal role...

Africa File, June 13, 2024: Houthi-Shabaab Weapons Deal; SFG Boost in Central Somalia

Gulf of Aden. US intelligence claimed that the Houthis and al Shabaab have discussed a deal for the Houthis to provide weapons to al Shab...

Africa File, June 7, 2024: Russian Diplomatic Blitz; Somalia Boots Ethiopia

Russia. High-level Russian officials are meeting with Russian partners across Africa, seeking to advance the Kremlin’s strategic goals of...

Africa File Special Edition: Russian Diplomatic Blitz Advances the Kremlin’s Strategic Aims in Africa

High-level Russian officials are meeting with Russian partners across Africa, seeking to advance the Kremlin’s strategic goals of project...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 03, 2024

Africa File, May 31, 2024: Russian Red Sea Logistics Center in Sudan; JNIM Strengthens Along the Burkinabe-Nigerien Border

Sudan. Russia is planning to build a logistical support center for the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) on the Red Sea, which it likely intend...

Africa File, May 16, 2024: Russian Outreach Across Africa; Iran’s Uranium Aims; IS Mozambique Continues March

Libya. Russia has reinforced its military presence in Libya as it consolidates its positions across Africa. Russia may have deployed the ...

Africa File, May 9, 2024: America and Russia’s Shifting Roles in West Africa; IS Africa Media; Russia’s Morphing Stance in Sudan

West Africa.  The United States is strengthening counterterrorism and defense cooperation with littoral West African countries as it plan...

Africa File, May 2, 2024: Iran Pursues Economic and Military Influence; Burkinabe Abuses; Mali Kills Wanted IS Commander; Insurgents Strengthen in East Africa

Iran in Africa. Iran is using military exports as a vehicle to pursue objectives in Africa such as acquiring uranium in Niger and a perma...

Iran Update, April 26, 2024

Africa File, April 25, 2024: IS Somalia Expansion Benefits IS Global Network; Togo Constitutional Changes

The Islamic State claimed that its Somali affiliate has expanded control over mountainous areas of northern Somalia at the expense of al ...

Africa File, April 18, 2024: Chad Is the Kremlin’s Next Target in the Sahel; al Qaeda’s Sahelian Affiliate Weaponizes Drones

The Chadian junta may begin aligning with the Russian-backed Sahelian juntas and Russia itself, which would boost Russia’s long-standing ...

Africa File, April 11, 2024: Kremlin’s Africa Corps Nears Niger; Ethiopia-Somalia Rift Widens; al Qaeda Affiliates Strengthen in the Sahel and Horn

Africa File, April 4, 2024: Mali and Russia Explore Mali’s Mineral Wealth; Niger Plays the Field; the Kremlin’s Red Sea Ambitions in Eritrea

Mali. The Malian junta is increasing cooperation with Russia to boost its gold, oil, gas, lithium, and uranium production to bolster its ...

Africa File, March 28, 2024: Islamic State Resurgent in Mozambique; al Shabaab’s Ramadan Offensive

The Islamic State affiliate in Mozambique is massing forces, controlling territory, and operating across northern Mozambique at levels un...

Africa File, March 22, 2024: Niger Cuts the US; JNIM Encroaches on Guinea; al Shabaab Hotel Attack

Niger’s junta annulled defense cooperation agreements with the United States, underscoring its prioritization of growing partnerships wit...

Africa File Special Edition: Niger Cuts the United States for Russia and Iran

Niger’s junta annulled defense cooperation agreements with the United States, underscoring its prioritization of growing partnerships wit...

Africa File, March 14, 2024: Foreign Fighters and Jihadi Rivalry in the Sahel; Somalia Backslides

The Islamic State’s Sahel Province (ISSP) has established itself as a hub for foreign fighters, raising its transnational threat risk to ...

Africa File, March 7, 2024: JNIM Strengthening Near Bamako; Kremlin and Nigeria Discuss Partnership

Al Qaeda–affiliated militants recently conducted the first suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) attack in southern M...

Iran Update, March 4, 2024

Africa File, February 29, 2024: Russia Eyes Gulf of Guinea, JNIM Massacres Civilians in Burkina Faso

Reports of a small and potentially growing number of Russian military advisers in Togo indicate that Russia and Togo are increasing their...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, February 15, 2024: Wagner Strikes Gold in Mali, and al Shabaab Terrorizes Mogadishu

Mali. The Wagner Group established control over its first gold mine in Mali and will likely attempt to expand its influence over northern...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Special Update: Senegal Election Crisis Destabilizes Another Western Partner

The ongoing Senegalese election crisis is destabilizing a crucial democratic US ally in turbulent West Africa, which threatens to further...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, February 1, 2024: Somalia Aims to Expand Stop-Start Offensive Against al Shabaab

The Somali Federal Government (SFG) is intensifying operations to clear al Shabaab’s remaining havens in central Somalia with support fro...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Update Special Edition: Blinken Visits West Africa as Former Sahelian Counterterrorism Partners Continue to Slide into Russia and Iran’s Orbit

The US secretary of state met with key US partners in West Africa as Russia and Iran are bolstering their ties with authoritarian regimes...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, January 18, 2024: Nigerien Junta Looks to the Kremlin as al Qaeda–linked Militants Amplify Attacks Near Niamey

The Nigerien junta is continuing to grow closer to the Kremlin and may deploy Russian mercenaries in Niger to respond to the deterioratin...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, January 10, 2024: New IS Campaign Presents Pro-Palestine Propaganda Opportunities for Sub-Saharan Affiliates

IS affiliates across sub-Saharan Africa have claimed attacks as part of the new IS global campaign and could attempt to carry out high-vi...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, January 4, 2024: Ethiopia-Somaliland Port Deal and al Qaeda Offensive in Central Mali

Horn of Africa. Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with the de facto independent Somaliland Republic, a breakaway region of So...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Update Special Edition: Ethiopia-Somaliland Port Deal Strains Horn of Africa Counterterrorism Cooperation and Alters Red Sea Geopolitics

Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with the de facto independent Somaliland Republic, a breakaway region of Somalia, to lease ...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, December 13, 2023: Al Qaeda Strengthens in Central Mali

Al Qaeda­–linked militants are increasing their rate of attack in central Mali, likely to coerce civilians into submission to strengthen ...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Update Special Edition: Western Failures, Military Coups, and Kremlin Gains Undermine US Geostrategic and Counterterrorism Interests in the Sahel

Western counterterrorism efforts in the Sahel over the past decade have failed, which contributed to governance collapse and the rise of ...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, November 29, 2023: Potential ISSP-JNIM Truce Boosts Salafi-Jihadi Insurgency in the Sahel

A potential localized truce between Islamic State and al Qaeda–linked militants near the Malian-Nigerien border is likely aiding both gro...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, November 8, 2023: Malian and Wagner Forces at a Crossroads in Battle with Separatist and al Qaeda Insurgents in Northern Mali

Malian and Wagner forces will likely attempt to capture the vacated UN base in the Kidal regional capital in the coming weeks. Malian and...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, October 25, 2023: Malian Junta and Its Wagner Group Allies Are Unprepared for Ongoing UN Withdrawal

The Malian junta and its Wagner Group auxiliaries cannot backfill withdrawing UN forces in northern Mali while maintaining pressure acros...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, October 18, 2023: Al Qaeda May Attack International Forces or Foreigners in Sub-Saharan Africa to Support Hamas

Al Qaeda’s affiliates in sub-Saharan Africa may take advantage of the Israel-Hamas war to attack their African or Western adversaries und...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, October 11, 2023

Gulf of Aden Security Review – October 10, 2023

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, October 4, 2023: Pakistan Suicide Bombings, Somalia Backsliding, Tribal Insurgency Challenges SDF, and Sahelian Juntas Face Internal Pressure

Iraq and Syria. Tribal insurgent attacks against the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) quintupled in the past week compared to pre...

Gulf of Aden Security Review – October 3, 2023

Gulf of Aden Security Review – September 29, 2023

Yemen: AQAP-linked media unit says AQAP does not target Abyan’s tribes; AQAP fighters detonate IED targeting STC-backed forces in Abyan; ...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Update, September 27: Tribal Insurgency May Expand in Syria; Mali and Separatist Rebels Resume Fighting; Afghan Taliban and Pakistan Discuss Cross-Border Attacks; Iran Targets IS-Affiliated Militants in Iran

Gulf of Aden Security Review – September 26, 2023

Gulf of Aden Security Review – September 22, 2023

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Update, September 20: Anti-Syrian Democratic Forces Insurgency Continues in Deir ez Zor, Kremlin Works to Replace Wagner in the Sahel, IS in Pakistan Targets Politician Before Elections, and Haqqani Network Supports Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan Attacks in Pakistan

Gulf of Aden Security Review – September 19, 2023

Yemen: Houthis return from Riyadh and restate negotiating position; UAE Foreign Affairs Ministry says it supports Saudi-Houthi talks; AQA...

Gulf of Aden Security Review – September 15, 2023

Yemen: Saudi Arabia announces it is hosting senior Houthi delegation for talks in Riyadh; Houthi president confirms talks in Riyadh; Yeme...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Update, September 13, 2023: SDF Lose Legitimacy in Deir ez Zor, al Qaeda and the Islamic State expand in West Africa, TTP Launches Offensive in Pakistan

Iraq and Syria. The tactics the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) used in recent clashes with Arab tribes in Deir ez Zor province undermined...

Gulf of Aden Security Review – September 12, 2023

Gulf of Aden Security Review – September 8, 2023

Somalia: Somali officials plan to use local militias to lead revamped offensive against al Shabaab in central Somalia after recent setbac...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, August 16, 2023

Iraq and Syria. ISIS is conducting offensive operations in the central Syrian desert. Niger. The Nigerien junta will likely expedite effo...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Update Special Edition: Niger Crisis—ECOWAS Mobilization Does Not Guarantee Invasion

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) activated and ordered the deployment of its standby force (ESF) on August 10 to re...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, August 9, 2023

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Update Special Edition: Niger Coup—Wagner Group and an ECOWAS Intervention Threaten to Further Destabilize the Sahel

The Nigerien junta is unlikely to capitulate to international pressure to reverse its coup, which will result in its international isolat...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, August 2, 2023

Niger. The Nigerien junta is unlikely to capitulate to international pressure to reverse its coup, which will result in its international...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, July 26, 2023

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Update Special Edition: Niger Coup Threatens Western Counterterrorism Efforts and Could Offer Opportunities to Russia

The outcome of the attempted coup in Niger on July 26 is unclear. Coups elsewhere in the Sahel have strengthened the regional al Qaeda an...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, July 20, 2023

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, July 12, 2023

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, July 5, 2023

Iraq and Syria. ISIS conducted three attacks in Iraq near a border crossing in Saudi Arabia, possibly signaling the group’s intent to cha...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Update Special Edition: Wagner Will Remain in Africa

The Wagner Group will continue operating in Africa following the group’s armed rebellion and is very unlikely to decrease its activity on...

Gulf of Aden Security Review – June 30, 2023

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, June 28, 2023

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Update Special Edition: Al Shabaab Increases Attacks on Somalia’s Neighbors

Al Shabaab is increasing the rate and severity of its attacks in northeastern Kenya and against Ethiopian forces in Somalia, likely to bo...

Gulf of Aden Security Review – June 27, 2023

Yemen: AQAP captures STC-backed position in Abyan; Yemeni president visits Hadramawt and says Hadramawt will manage its own finances, sec...

Gulf of Aden Security Review – June 23, 2023

Yemen: PLC Deputy blesses formation of new Hadrami National Council; STC president says he will hold UN-supervised referendum on southern...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, June 21, 2023 

Gulf of Aden Security Review – June 20, 2023

Yemen: AQAP claims responsibility for three IED attacks targeting STC forces; Houthi officials go to Saudi Arabia for the Hajj; Anti-STC ...

Gulf of Aden Security Review – June 16, 2023

Yemen: AQAP conducts two drone attacks targeting Shabwani Defense Force posts in southern Yemen; AQAP claims IED attack targeting STC-bac...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, June 14, 2023

Somalia. The Somali Federal Government (SFG) has to date failed to launch an offensive against al Shabaab in southern Somalia in 2023, wh...

Gulf of Aden Security Review – June 9, 2023

Yemen: US Secretary of State meets with top Saudi and Yemeni leaders in Saudi Arabia. Somalia: Al Shabaab conducts twin suicide bombing t...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, June 7, 2023

Gulf of Aden Security Review – June 6, 2023

Yemen: UN Special Envoy meets with top Yemeni officials in Riyadh; UN special envoy meets with senior Omani officials and chief Houthi ne...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, May 31, 2023

Iraq and Syria. ISIS likely is increasing large-scale operations, setting conditions to challenge regime control in some population cente...

Gulf of Aden Security Review – May 30, 2023

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, May 24, 2023

Gulf of Aden Security Review – May 26, 2023

Yemen: Hadrami leaders conclude two-day conference in Riyadh; PLC member meets with US ambassador to Yemen. Somalia: Al Shabaab complex s...

Gulf of Aden Security Review – May 24, 2023

Yemen: Houthis ban import of domestic gas into Houthi-controlled territory from government-controlled territory; prominent AQ supporter c...

Gulf of Aden Security Review – May 22, 2023

Yemen: Houthis commit to national unity in negotiations; STC President gives speech highlight STC aspirations to form independent souther...

Gulf of Aden Security Review – May 19, 2023

Yemen: STC President Zubaidi travels to Mukalla, Hadramawt governorate; unspecified Hadrami leaders met to demand an independent Hadrami ...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, May 17, 2023

Gulf of Aden Security Review – May 17, 2023

Gulf of Aden Security Review – May 15, 2023

Yemen: Houthis accuse UK, US, and Saudi Arabia of preventing peace in Yemen; STC-backed forces announce successful counter-AQAP operation...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, May 10, 2023

Iraq and Syria. ISIS is expanding its support zones in the Middle Euphrates River Valley (MERV) despite falling attack claims. The US mis...

Gulf of Aden Security Review – May 10, 2023

Gulf of Aden Security Review – May 8, 2023

Yemen: Houthi officials promise peace while threatening war; AQAP detonates an IED targeting STC-backed forces in Abyan; STC president ap...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, May 4, 2023

Gulf of Aden Security Review – May 3, 2023

Yemen: UN envoy to Yemen meets with Houthi officials in Sana’a to discuss framework for ceasefire and Saudi-Houthi peace negotiations; UN...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, April 27, 2023

Gulf of Aden Security Review – April 26, 2023

Yemen: Yemeni media report Houthi-ROYG peace negotiations will resume; A Houthi official threatens Saudi Arabia with attacks if peace tal...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, April 19, 2023

The Islamic State is strengthening and expanding globally. US operations targeting senior leaders in the Islamic State’s network temporar...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, April 12, 2023

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, April 5, 2023

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, March 29, 2023

Iraq and Syria. ISIS remains a viable insurgency in Syria that aspires to reestablish a territorial caliphate. The US presence in Syria e...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, March 22, 2023

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, March 16, 2023

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, March 8, 2023

Somalia. The Somali Federal Government (SFG) will begin a major offensive targeting al Shabaab–controlled areas of southern Somalia in th...

Gulf of Aden Security Review – March 3, 2023

Yemen: The US and Royal Navies interdicted Iranian arms bound for the Houthis Somalia: Kenya, Ethiopia, and Djibouti to send additional ...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, March 1, 2023

Iran-backed Shi’a militants likely massacred unarmed Sunni civilians in Diyala on February 20. ISIS has not commented on the attack. Pro-...

Gulf of Aden Security Review – March 1, 2023

Gulf of Aden Security Review – February 27, 2023

Yemen: AQAP claims IED attack targeting UAE-backed soldiers; likely US drone kills two suspected AQAP fighters; AQAP official disavows ca...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, February 22, 2023

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, February 15, 2023

Somalia. Several large-scale al Shabaab attacks on military bases across Somalia highlight that Somali counterterrorism efforts have not ...

Gulf of Aden Security Review – February 13, 2023

Yemen: Houthi official reiterates conditions for continuing de-facto truce; Yemeni president meets US ambassador; Abyan Special Forces mu...

Gulf of Aden Security Review- February 10, 2023

Yemen: STC requests independent representation in peace talks; Houthi negotiators meet with Iranian officials; Houthi negotiators meet wi...

Africa File: Al Qaeda–Linked Militants Take Control in Northern Mali

Al Qaeda’s Sahel branch, Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM), is filling the security vacuum in northern Mali following the Fr...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, February 8, 2023

Gulf of Aden Security Review- February 6, 2023

Yemen: AQAP claims two attacks in Wadi Omran, Mudiyah district, Abyan governorate; US Envoy to Yemen and US Ambassador to Yemen meet with...

Gulf of Aden Security Review – February 3, 2023

Yemen: French special forces seize Iranian weapons shipment for the Houthis; Mareb Press reports that ROYG will deploy new forces to sout...

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, February 1, 2023

Gulf of Aden Security Review – February 1, 2023

Yemen: US drone strike kills AQAP explosives expert; AQAP claims two separate attacks in Abyan Somalia: Somali national security advis...

Africa File: Wagner Group in Burkina Faso Will Help the Kremlin and Hurt Counterterrorism

The Kremlin-linked Wagner Group will likely deploy to Burkina Faso in the coming months. Military juntas in Burkina Faso and neighboring ...