Riley Bailey
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 6, 2024
George Barros Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov Davit Gasparyan Angelica Evans October 06, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 4, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov Davit Gasparyan Grace Mappes October 04, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 27, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Haley Zehrung Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Riley Bailey September 27, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14, 2024
George Barros Karolina Hird Christina Harward Riley Bailey Davit Gasparyan September 14, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 1, 2024
George Barros Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey September 01, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 29, 2024
George Barros Davit Gasparyan Angelica Evans Riley Bailey August 29, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 25, 2024
George Barros Davit Gasparyan Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes August 25, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 24, 2024
George Barros Davit Gasparyan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey August 24, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Riley Bailey July 12, 2024 ANALYSISWestern and US officials reportedly assess that Ukrainian forces will continue to be on the defensive for the next six months and will no...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4, 2024
George Barros Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Karolina Hird Riley Bailey June 04, 2024 ANALYSISSelect Russian military commentators continue to complain about superior Ukrainian drone and electronic warfare (EW) capabilities on the ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 30, 2024
George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans May 30, 2024 ANALYSISUS President Joe Biden reportedly approved a policy change that will permit Ukraine to use US-provided weapons, including GMLRS rockets —...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey May 07, 2024 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin began his fifth term as Russian President on May 7 and stressed Russia's need for unchallenged autocrati...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 28, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Riley Bailey April 28, 2024 ANALYSISRecent Russian gains northwest of Avdiivka have prompted Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other limited tactical positions along the fro...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Riley Bailey April 19, 2024 ANALYSISThe US House of Representatives passed a supplemental appropriations bill on April 20 providing for roughly $60 billion of assistance to ...
Russian Strikes More Effective as Ukraine Exhausts Defenses
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey April 12, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 10, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov April 10, 2024 ANALYSISThe Ukrainian military’s effective use of drones on the battlefield cannot fully mitigate Ukraine’s theater-wide shortage of critical mun...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 6, 2024
George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey April 06, 2024 ANALYSISUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that Ukraine does not have enough materiel to contest the battlefield initiative.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 3, 2024
George Barros Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov April 03, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 2, 2024
George Barros Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Riley Bailey April 02, 2024 ANALYSISUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law on April 2 that lowers the Ukrainian military’s mobilization age from 27 to 25 years ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30, 2024
George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey March 30, 2024 ANALYSISUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that delays in American security assistance have forced Ukraine to cede the battlefield ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29, 2024
George Barros Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Christina Harward Riley Bailey March 29, 2024 ANALYSISThe Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP), a Kremlin-controlled organization and a known tool within the Russian hybrid wa...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Angelica Evans March 21, 2024 ANALYSISThe Russian military command appears to be forming reserves capable of sustaining ongoing offensive operations in Ukraine, but these rese...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 14, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird March 14, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 8, 2024
George Barros Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Christina Harward March 08, 2024 ANALYSISUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated that a ceasefire in Ukraine would allow Russia to rebuild its forces and means for futu...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 6, 2024
George Barros Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Angelica Evans March 06, 2024 ANALYSISUkrainian Ground Forces Commander Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk stated on March 6 that Ukraine will try to seize the initiative an...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 29, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey February 29, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Angelica Evans February 28, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 27, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Christina Harward Riley Bailey February 27, 2024 ANALYSISRussian forces are attempting to exploit tactical opportunities offered by the Russian seizure of Avdiivka and appear to be maintaining a...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey February 24, 2024 ANALYSISUkraine continues to defend against Russian aggression and the Kremlin’s attempt to destroy Ukrainian statehood and identity despite grow...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 23, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Grace Mappes February 23, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 20, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 20, 2024 ANALYSISUkraine has been defending itself against illegal Russian military intervention and aggression for 10 years.[1] Russia violated its commi...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 17, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Grace Mappes February 17, 2024 ANALYSISRussian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that Russian forces have established “full control” over Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast as Russi...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 8, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Christina Harward Riley Bailey February 08, 2024 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin attempted to use an interview with American media personality Tucker Carlson published on February 8 to ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 2, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Christina Harward Angelica Evans Riley Bailey February 02, 2024 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin evoked a wide Russian social and economic mobilization reminiscent of the Soviet Union’s total mobilizat...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 1, 2024
George Barros Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey February 01, 2024 ANALYSISUkrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi presented an overarching strategy to seize the theater-wide initiative in Ukraine ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 25, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Christina Harward Angelica Evans Riley Bailey January 25, 2024 ANALYSISUkrainian and Russian authorities opened criminal investigations into the January 24 Russian Il-76 military transport aircraft crash in B...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 20, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans January 20, 2024 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin falsely claimed that Russia supports the “unconditional equality” and “sovereignty” of all states in a J...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11, 2024
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Riley Bailey January 11, 2024 ANALYSISThe reported concentration of the Russian military’s entire combat-capable ground force in Ukraine and ongoing Russian force generation e...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 22, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko December 22, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian officials continue to warn that Russia maintains its maximalist objectives and additional goals for territorial conquest in Ukr...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 16, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Christina Harward Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey December 16, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continue operations on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast amid reported difficult conditions in ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 15, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Christina Harward December 15, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 12, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey December 12, 2023 ANALYSISUS intelligence reportedly assessed that Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in fall 2023 and through the upcoming winter aim...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 11, 2023
Mason Clark Riley Bailey Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes December 11, 2023 ANALYSISIran Update, December 10, 2023
Nicholas Carl Riley Bailey Andie Parry Amin Soltani Ashka Jhaveri December 10, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 10, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Angelica Evans December 10, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Riley Bailey December 06, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward December 05, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against Russian military targets in occupied Crimea on the night of Decemb...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 3, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov December 03, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 30, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov November 30, 2023 ANALYSISA recent Russian opinion poll indicates that the number of Russians who fully support the war in Ukraine has almost halved since February...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 28, 2023
Mason Clark George Barros Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey November 28, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin reiterated a two-part conception of Russian identity in a speech on November 28: a “Russian nation” – cl...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 27, 2023
Mason Clark George Barros Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 27, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey November 22, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 18, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angelica Evans Christina Harward Riley Bailey November 18, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of November 17 to 18.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 12, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Grace Mappes November 12, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 13, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Christina Harward November 10, 2023 ANALYSISRussian state media released and later retracted reports about the "regrouping" of Russian forces on the east (left) bank of Kherson Obla...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 8, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Christina Harward November 08, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 8. The Ukrainian General...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 7, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Christina Harward November 07, 2023 ANALYSISRussian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces transferred a limited number of armored vehicles to the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Christina Harward Karolina Hird Riley Bailey November 05, 2023 ANALYSISIran Update, November 3, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Sydney White Kathryn Tyson Annika Ganzeveld Brian Carter Andie Parry Ashka Jhaveri November 03, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 02, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 1, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 01, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi assessed on November 1 that the war in Ukraine has taken on a positional nature an...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 22, 2023
Mason Clark Riley Bailey Christina Harward Angelica Evans Karolina Hird October 22, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 21, 2023
Mason Clark Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Angelica Evans October 21, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces have likely repelled another intensified Russian offensive effort towards Avdiivka in the past several days and inflicte...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 20, 2023
Mason Clark Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey October 20, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces launched a renewed offensive push near Avdiivka on October 20 and marginally advanced, indicating that the Russian militar...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 18, 2023
Mason Clark Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Angelica Evans October 18, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 17, 2023
Mason Clark Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Karolina Hird October 17, 2023 ANALYSISUkraine used US-provided ATACMS long-range missiles to strike Russian targets in occupied Ukraine for the first time on October 17.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 15, 2023
Mason Clark Grace Mappes Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey October 15, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin may be trying to temper expectations of significant Russian advances around Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 30, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov September 30, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Bakhmut on September 30.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 29, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Christina Harward September 29, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 28, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov September 28, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 28. The Ukrainian General Staf...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 26, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Christina Harward Riley Bailey September 26, 2023 ANALYSISThe tactical situation in Verbove remains unclear as Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on Sept...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 25, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Christina Harward Angelica Evans September 25, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Christina Harward Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov September 21, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian armored vehicles are operating beyond the final line of the Russian defensive layer that Ukrainian forces in western Zaporizhia...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 19, 2023
Mason Clark Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov September 19, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 16, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey September 16, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction on September 16 and continued to make gains in the area.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 15, 2023
Mason Clark Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Christina Harward September 15, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey September 14, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and around Bakhmut and reportedly advanced south of Bakhmut ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 13, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey September 13, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 18, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Christina Harward Riley Bailey September 11, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 10, 2023
Mason Clark Karolina Hird Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey September 10, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 9, 2023
Mason Clark Christina Harward Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Grace Mappes September 09, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces made confirmed advances in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and made claimed a...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Christina Harward Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov September 04, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 3, 2023
Mason Clark Angelica Evans Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey September 03, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Christina Harward Riley Bailey September 02, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced on September 2.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 1, 2023
Mason Clark Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey September 01, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 31, 2023
Mason Clark Angelica Evans Christina Harward Riley Bailey Grace Mappes August 31, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 26, 2023
Mason Clark Christina Harward Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey August 26, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces have made further tactically significant gains in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and several Ukrainian and Russian sources r...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko August 23, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and founder Dmitry Utkin reportedly died after Russian forces shot down an aircraft transporting...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 20, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Grace Mappes August 20, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front and advanced near Robotyne.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 17, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey August 17, 2023 ANALYSIS“Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky suggested that Russia freeze the war in Ukraine along the current frontlines, reintrod...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 13, 2023
Mason Clark Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes August 13, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 13 and reportedly advanced in the w...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 11, 2023
Mason Clark Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey August 11, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey August 10, 2023 ANALYSISThe Wagner Group continues to maintain a presence at facilities in Belarus and the status of its rumored withdrawal to Russia remains unc...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Christina Harward Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey August 06, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces struck two key road bridges along critical Russian grounds lines of communication (GLOCs) connecting occupied Crimea and...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey August 05, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces struck a Russian oil tanker on August 4 with a naval drone in the second attack on Russian ships in the Black Sea in two...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 4, 2023
Mason Clark Christina Harward Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko August 04, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted a series of aerial and naval drone strikes against Russian logistics and port infrastructure in occupied Crime...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 30, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey July 30, 2023 ANALYSISThe lack of Russian milblogger reaction to a Ukrainian strike on the Chonhar bridge represents a notable inflection in Russian reporting ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 29, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey July 29, 2023 ANALYSISSegments of the Russian pro-war ultranationalist information space appear to be coalescing around the Kremlin’s narrative effort to portr...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 27, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Angelica Evans Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird July 27, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 27 and made gains in some areas, al...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 25, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov July 25, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin continued to manifest concern over potential threats that the Wagner Group and its financier Yevgeny Pri...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Thomas Bergeron Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov George Barros July 23, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin revealed his continuing concern over the potential threats that the Wagner Group and Yevgeny Prigozhin m...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 22, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey July 22, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 22. The Ukrainian General Staff rep...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 19, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Christina Harward George Barros Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 19, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces launched an extensive missile and drone attack against port and grain infrastructure in southern Ukraine on July 19 likely...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 16, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian MoD has begun to remove commanders from some of the Russian military’s most combat effective units and formations and appears...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14, 2023
Mason Clark Christina Harward Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey July 14, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin further indicated he intends to maintain the Wagner Group as a cohesive fighting force rather than break...
Iran Update, July 13, 2023
Riley Bailey Amin Soltani Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Ashka Jhaveri Andie Parry July 13, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 11, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey July 11, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted a series of Shahed 131 and 136 drone strikes across Ukraine on July 11, likely in a demonstrative response to th...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 10, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey July 10, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian officials stated on July 10 that Ukrainian forces have fire control over Bakhmut and Russian ground lines of communication (GLO...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 7, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey July 07, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces made tactically significant gains in the Bakhmut area and continued counteroffensive operations in at least three other ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 06, 2023 ANALYSISBelarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner forces are not in Belarus as of...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 02, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces reportedly conducted counteroffensive operations in six sectors of the front on July 2 and made gains in some of these a...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 1, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angelica Evans George Barros Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko July 01, 2023 ANALYSISRussian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors of the frontline on July 1. ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 28, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird June 28, 2023 ANALYSISContinued reporting about the deal mediated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to end the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion suggest...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 25, 2023
Mason Clark Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey June 25, 2023 ANALYSISRussian sources speculated on the specifics of the deal mediated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to end the Wagner Group’s Ju...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 24, 2023
Mason Clark Angelica Evans Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko June 24, 2023 ANALYSISThe Kremlin announced late on June 24 that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko negotiated a deal under which Wagner Group financier ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 21, 2023
Mason Clark Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey June 21, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on June 21. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minist...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 20, 2023
Mason Clark Angelica Evans Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey June 20, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least two sectors of the front on June 20.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17, 2023
Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Riley Bailey June 17, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least four sectors of the front on June 17.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 16, 2023
Mason Clark Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey June 16, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least three sectors of the front on June 16 and reportedly made gains. The Ukra...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 15, 2023
Mason Clark Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird June 15, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 15, 2023
Mason Clark Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird June 15, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 14, 2023
Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey June 14, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three directions and made gains on June 14.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 13, 2023
Mason Clark George Barros Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko June 13, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three directions and made further limited territorial gains on June 13.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 10, 2023
Mason Clark Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey June 10, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four areas of the front on June 10.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Karolina Hird June 06, 2023 ANALYSISDamage to the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam in the early hours of June 6 caused massive flooding of the Dnipro River delt...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey June 04, 2023 ANALYSISElements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted another limited raid...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 3, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey June 03, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian officials continue to signal that Ukrainian forces are prepared to start counteroffensive operations.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Layne Philipson June 02, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to respond disproportionately to limited raids into Russian territory, likely to project ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 29, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird George Barros Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey May 29, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine with cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones overnight on May 28 to 29...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 28, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko May 28, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted the largest Shahed drone strike against Ukraine since the start of the war overnight on May 27-28. The Ukrainian...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 27, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko May 27, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group mercenaries appear to be withdrawing from Bakhmut city to reconstitute and regroup in the rear as Russian offensive operatio...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 25, 2023
Mason Clark Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird May 25, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on May 25 that the Wagner Group began handing over its positions in Bakhmut to the Rus...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko May 21, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group mercenaries likely secured the western administrative borders of Bakhmut City while Ukrainian forces are continuing to prior...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 19, 2023
Mason Clark Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey May 19, 2023 ANALYSISA Ukrainian official stated that Russian forces have concentrated most of their available reserves to the Bakhmut area and slowed Ukraini...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko May 15, 2023 ANALYSISLeaked US intelligence accessed by The Washington Post indicates that Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to disclose the l...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Grace Mappes Riley Bailey May 14, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of May 13 to 14.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 13, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey May 13, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continue to counterattack in the Bakhmut area amid unconfirmed claims of further marginal Ukrainian gains southwest of t...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 10, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird May 10, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces conducted successful limited counterattacks around Bakhmut on May 9.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes May 08, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another large-scale missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of May 7 to 8. The Ukrainian General S...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko May 07, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov may have compelled the Russian theater commander in Ukraine, A...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 6, 2023
Mason Clark Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird May 06, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov stated their intent on May 6 for Chechen “Akhmat” troop...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird May 05, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to have deprioritized the Bakhmut offensive in favor of preparing to defend against an anti...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey May 04, 2023 ANALYSISRussia conducted another Shahed-131/136 strike against Ukraine on May 4. Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces launched...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 2, 2023
Mason Clark Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Riley Bailey May 02, 2023 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 1, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey May 01, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another large-scale missile strike against Ukraine on the night of April 30 to May 1.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 30, 2023
Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey April 30, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s reluctance to appoint an overall theater commander for his invasion of Ukraine has had cascading effec...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 27, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Angela Howard Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird April 27, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian military command appears to be reshuffling the leadership of command organs associated with force generation, sustainment, an...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 26, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird April 26, 2023 ANALYSISRussia appears to be continuing a deliberate depopulation campaign in occupied areas of Ukraine in order to facilitate the repopulation o...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko April 21, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces used a new delivery of Shahed drones to strike Ukraine for the third consecutive day, targeting Kyiv for the first time in...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird April 16, 2023 ANALYSISThe United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported on April 16 that it is highly likely that VDV commander Colonel General Mikhail ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 15, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Karolina Hird Riley Bailey George Barros April 15, 2023 ANALYSISReporting from some Western sources that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin called for Russia to end its war against Ukraine is ina...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 7, 2023
Mason Clark George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird April 07, 2023 ANALYSISRussian milbloggers responded with speculative anxiety to reportedly leaked (and possibly altered) classified US military documents about...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 4, 2023
Mason Clark Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros Riley Bailey April 04, 2023 ANALYSISThe Kremlin will likely attempt to coerce Belarus into further Union State integration when Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusi...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 31, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey March 31, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin approved a new Russian Foreign Policy Concept on March 31 that likely aims to support the Kremlin’s atte...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko March 30, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on March 30 authorizing Russia’s semiannual spring conscription which will induct 147,00...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Riley Bailey March 29, 2023 ANALYSISIranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on March 29 to review...
Iran Update, March 29, 2023
Riley Bailey Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Johanna Moore Zachary Coles Amin Soltani Annika Ganzeveld March 29, 2023 ANALYSISIranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian alluded to Iranian involvement in the recent attacks on US bases in Syria durin...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird March 21, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin appears to be setting conditions to weaponize the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as a method of ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 20, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Karolina Hird Angela Howard Riley Bailey March 20, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces made marginal gains in and around Bakhmut amid a reported increase in the tempo of Russian operations around Avdiivka. Rus...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey March 18, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces targeted Ukraine with 16 Shahed-136 drones overnight on March 17-18.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 17, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey March 17, 2023 ANALYSISChinese President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a state visit to Russia from March 20 to 22 likely to...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 11, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Nicole Wolkov George Barros Karolina Hird Riley Bailey March 11, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces did not make any confirmed advances within Bakhmut on March 11. Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to report heavy fig...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 10, 2023
Mason Clark George Barros Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov Riley Bailey Karolina Hird March 10, 2023 ANALYSISUS intelligence warned that individuals with ties to Russian intelligence may be planning to attempt to instigate an insurrection in Mold...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey March 09, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted the largest missile strike across Ukraine of 2023 so far on March 9, but the attack likely only served Russian s...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Grace Mappes March 05, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian forces are likely conducting a limited tactical withdrawal in Bakhmut, although it is still too early to assess Ukrainian inten...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Nicole Wolkov Angela Howard Riley Bailey Karolina Hird March 04, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces appear to have secured a sufficient positional advantage to conduct a turning movement against certain parts of Bakhmut bu...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 1, 2023
George Barros Mason Clark Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko March 01, 2023 ANALYSISThe Kremlin may leverage an amendment to Russia’s Criminal Code increasing punishments for "discrediting" the war in Ukraine to promote f...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 25, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Kateryna Stepanenko Grace Mappes Riley Bailey February 25, 2023 ANALYSISUK, French, and German officials are reportedly preparing a NATO-Ukraine pact that falls far short of the protections Ukraine would recei...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey February 24, 2023 ANALYSISThe Kremlin did not comment on the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, likely because Russia has...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 23, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Nicole Wolkov Grace Mappes Riley Bailey February 23, 2023 ANALYSISThe Kremlin appears to be setting conditions for false flag operations on the Chernihiv Oblast international border and in Moldova ahead ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 16, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 16, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another missile strike on infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine on February 16. The Ukrainian General Sta...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 15, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Kitaneh Fitzpatrick Layne Philipson Nicole Wolkov George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey February 15, 2023 ANALYSISRussia’s costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to susta...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 11, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey February 11, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian military officials and Russian pro-war nationalist voices are downplaying Russia’s ability to launch a sweeping large-scale off...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 9, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 09, 2023 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on February 9 that the Wagner Group has entirely stopped recruiting prisoners. In a re...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 8, 2023
Mason Clark Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 08, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces have regained the initiative in Ukraine and have begun their next major offensive in Luhansk Oblast. The pace of Russian o...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko February 04, 2023 ANALYSISRussian decisive offensive operations are unlikely to target Zaporizhia City from the western Donetsk–Zaporizhia frontline as the Russian...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 3, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson George Barros Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird February 03, 2023 ANALYSISThe Biden administration announced a new $2.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine on February 3, including precision long-range missi...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 2, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird February 02, 2023 ANALYSISA Ukrainian intelligence official stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military to capture Donetsk and Luhans...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 1, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko February 01, 2023 ANALYSISUkrainian officials are continuing to warn about Russia’s intention of conducting a decisive offensive operation in Donbas in February an...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 29, 2023
George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko Mason Clark Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kimberly Kagan Frederick W. Kagan January 29, 2023 ANALYSISThis report focuses on the impact of delays in sending high-end weapons systems to Ukraine on Ukraine’s ability to take advantage of wind...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 28, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko George Barros January 28, 2023 ANALYSISConventional Russian forces are likely replacing exhausted Wager Group forces to maintain the offensive in Bakhmut after the Wagner Group...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 27, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Nicole Wolkov Layne Philipson George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko January 27, 2023 ANALYSISKremlin insiders reportedly told Bloomberg that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive to regain the initiative th...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 26, 2023
Nicole Wolkov Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird January 26, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on January 26.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 24, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 24, 2023 ANALYSISA coalition of NATO member states reportedly will send Ukraine modern main battle tanks. The Wall Street Journal reported on January 24 ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 19, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey George Barros January 19, 2023 ANALYSISSenior Kremlin officials continue holding high-level meetings with Belarusian national leadership – activity that could be setting condit...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 18, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Grace Mappes George Barros Riley Bailey January 18, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s speech commemorating the Soviet forces’ breaking of the siege of Leningrad illustrated that he remains...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 14, 2023
Mason Clark Angela Howard Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko January 14, 2023 ANALYSISRussian forces launched two waves of missile strikes targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure on January
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 13
Mason Clark Madison Williams Angela Howard Riley Bailey George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko January 13, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 13 that Russian forces seized Soledar, Donetsk Oblast, on the evening of Janua...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11
Mason Clark Layne Philipson Madison Williams Grace Mappes Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko January 11, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 11 that Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov will take ove...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 7, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 07, 2023 ANALYSISRecent Russian gains in Soledar do not portend an imminent encirclement of Bakhmut, contrary to claims made by Russian sources. Even at t...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 6, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 06, 2023 ANALYSISRussian officials and milbloggers largely did not react to the US announcement of more than $3.75 billion in new military assistance to U...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 5, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Layne Philipson Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird January 05, 2023 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement that Russian forces will conduct a 36-hour ceasefire between January 6 and January 7 in o...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 4, 2023
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey January 04, 2023 ANALYSISThe Russian milblogger information space continues to seize on official responses to the Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian base in Mak...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 31
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Madison Williams Angela Howard Riley Bailey December 31, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s annual New Year’s Eve address continued to illustrate that Putin is uncertain of his ability to shape ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 30
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams Karolina Hird Riley Bailey December 30, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces targeted Kyiv using Iranian-made drones on the night of December 29 to 30, a continuation of an increased pace of drone at...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 29
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Angela Howard December 29, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another massive series of missile strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure on December 29. Ukrainian of...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 28
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird Riley Bailey George Barros December 28, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian offensive against Bakhmut is likely culminating as ISW forecasted on December 27.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 27
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Madison Williams George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko December 27, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 24
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko December 24, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces’ rate of advance in the Bakhmut area has likely slowed in recent days, although it is too early to assess whether the Russ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 22
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko December 22, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin continues to refuse to treat Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an equal and sovereign counterpar...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 20
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko December 20, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 17
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard George Barros Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey December 17, 2022 ANALYSISThe Kremlin is likely attempting to depict Russian President Vladimir Putin as a competent wartime leader and to rehabilitate the image o...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 16
Frederick W. Kagan Layne Philipson Katherine Lawlor Riley Bailey George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko December 16, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted their ninth large-scale missile campaign against critical Ukrainian energy infrastructure on December 16 and car...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 15
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird December 15, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s objectives in Ukraine have not changed according to Ukrainian officials’ and ISW’s assessments based o...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 14
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko December 14, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin’s alluded decision to postpone his annual address to the Russian Federation Assembly indicates he remain...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 11
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey December 11, 2022 ANALYSISRussian officials consistently conduct information operations suggesting that Belarusian conventional ground forces might join Russia’s i...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 10
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Angela Howard Riley Bailey Karolina Hird December 10, 2022 ANALYSISAn unnamed US defense source told The Times that the Pentagon is no longer insisting that Ukraine should not strike military targets with...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 8
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Yekaterina Klepanchuk Riley Bailey Grace Mappes George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko December 08, 2022 ANALYSISGerman Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that the risk of Russian nuclear escalation is currently low, partially supporting ISW’s previous as...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 7
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird December 07, 2022 ANALYSISRussian President Vladimir Putin is setting conditions for a protracted war of conquest in Ukraine. During a meeting with the Russian Pre...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 4
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Layne Philipson Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Grace Mappes George Barros December 04, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian officials have indicated that Ukrainian forces plan to continue offensive operations over the coming winter to capitalize on re...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 3
George Barros Nicholas Carl Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Karolina Hird December 03, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 2
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko December 02, 2022 ANALYSISRussia is attempting to capitalize on the Western desire for negotiations to create a dynamic in which Western officials feel pressed to ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 1
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Riley Bailey December 01, 2022 ANALYSISBelarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continued to set informational conditions to resist Russian pressure to enter the war against U...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 30
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 30, 2022 ANALYSISRussian efforts around Bakhmut indicate that Russian forces have fundamentally failed to learn from previous high-casualty campaigns conc...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 26
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 26, 2022 ANALYSISThe overall pace of operations along the frontline has slowed in recent days due to deteriorating weather conditions but is likely to inc...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 25, 2022 ANALYSISReports of poorly staffed, provisioned, and supplied Russian mobilized personnel are dividing the Russian information space, exposing the...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 23
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko November 23, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian military conducted another set of massive, coordinated missile strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure in a misguided at...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 22, 2022 ANALYSISThe Kremlin appears to be setting information conditions for a false-flag attack in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, likely in an effort to regai...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 21
Frederick W. Kagan Madison Williams Yekaterina Klepanchuk Layne Philipson Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 21, 2022 ANALYSISTwo days of shelling caused widespread damage to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on November 20 and 21.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 17
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 17, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted another massive wave of missile strikes across Ukraine on November 17. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 16
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird November 16, 2022 ANALYSISRussian sources and proxy officials are flagrantly touting the forced adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 12
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko November 12, 2022 ANALYSISRussia’s withdrawal from Kherson City is igniting an ideological fracture between pro-war figures and Russian President Vladimir Putin, e...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 11
Frederick W. Kagan Kateryna Stepanenko Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird November 11, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 7
Mason Clark Madison Williams Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko November 07, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) issued a rare statement on November 7 in response to extensive Russian milblogger outcry on Novembe...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 5
Mason Clark Angela Howard Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird November 05, 2022 ANALYSISWagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin seeks to obfuscate his efforts to strengthen his independent power base with an appeal to the co...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 4
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 05, 2022 ANALYSISThe Russian military is likely trying to use mobilized personnel to restart the Donetsk offensive but will likely still fail to achieve o...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 3
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 03, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces are continuing to withdraw some elements from northwestern Kherson Oblast, but it is still unclear if Russian forces will ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 2
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 02, 2022 ANALYSISRussian force generation efforts combined with Western sanctions are having long-term damaging effects on the Russian economy, as ISW has...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 1
Frederick W. Kagan Yekaterina Klepanchuk Madison Williams Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko November 01, 2022 ANALYSISIran plans to send more combat drones and new ballistic missile systems to Russia for use in Ukraine, likely further strengthening Russia...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 28
Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Riley Bailey George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko October 28, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces are not making significant progress around Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast or anywhere else along the front lines.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 27
Frederick W. Kagan Karolina Hird Riley Bailey George Barros October 27, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 26
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Karolina Hird George Barros October 26, 2022 ANALYSISA Reuters investigation of a document trove found in an abandoned Russian command post in Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, supports ISW’s longs...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 25
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko October 25, 2022 ANALYSISMembers of the Russian siloviki faction continue to voice their dissatisfaction with Russian war efforts in Ukraine, indicating that Russ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 20
Frederick W. Kagan Nicholas Carl George Barros Riley Bailey Kathryn Tyson Karolina Hird October 20, 2022 ANALYSISRussia is likely continuing to prepare for a false flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP).
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 19
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Karolina Hird Katherine Lawlor October 19, 2022 ANALYSISRussian authorities are likely setting information conditions to justify planned Russian retreats and significant territorial losses in K...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 17
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird October 17, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against residential areas and critical infrastructure throughout Ukraine o...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 15
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird October 15, 2022 ANALYSISRussia continues to conduct massive, forced deportations of Ukrainians that likely amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign in ad...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 12
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Karolina Hird October 12, 2022 ANALYSISRussia has seemingly intensified its information operation to falsely portray Ukraine as a terrorist state, likely to set information con...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 10
Frederick W. Kagan Angela Howard Riley Bailey George Barros Kateryna Stepanenko October 10, 2022 ANALYSISRussian forces conducted a massive missile strike attack against over 20 cities, including Kyiv, on October 10. The Ukrainian General Sta...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 8
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Angela Howard Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko October 08, 2022 ANALYSISA large-scale explosion damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge that links occupied Crimea with Russia on October 8.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 6
Frederick W. Kagan George Barros Riley Bailey Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird October 06, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 4
Frederick W. Kagan Grace Mappes Riley Bailey Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko October 04, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued to make significant gains in Kherson Oblast while simultaneously continuing advances in Kharkiv and Luhansk ob...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 3
Frederick W. Kagan Katherine Lawlor Riley Bailey Kateryna Stepanenko Karolina Hird October 03, 2022 ANALYSISUkrainian forces continued to make substantial gains around Lyman and in Kherson Oblast in the last 48 hours. Ukrainian and Russian sourc...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 29
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey George Barros Karolina Hird Kateryna Stepanenko September 29, 2022 ANALYSISRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 28
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Katherine Lawlor Karolina Hird September 28, 2022 ANALYSISRussian milbloggers discussed Ukrainian gains around Lyman with increased concern on September 28, suggesting that Russian forces in this...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 27
Mason Clark Riley Bailey Grace Mappes Kateryna Stepanenko Katherine Lawlor September 27, 2022 ANALYSISRussian authorities in occupied parts of Ukraine’s Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts completed their falsified annexation...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 26
Frederick W. Kagan Riley Bailey George Barros Katherine Lawlor Kateryna Stepanenko September 27, 2022 ANALYSISThe Kremlin is attempting to message its way out of the reality of major problems in the execution of its “partial mobilization,” but its...