Transnational Threats

The United States and Israel are devastating Iran's leadership and inflicting significant damage on Iran's already-weak military. Iran, however, is hitting back, and the biggest long-term costs to the United States are likely to be felt outside the Middle East.

Commentary by Daniel Byman — April 2, 2026

Iran is executing a multidomain punishment campaign across energy, cyber, and maritime systems to coerce the United States and its partners. The challenge is not stopping attacks, but denying Tehran the economic disruption and strategic leverage they are designed to create.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen — March 23, 2026

Even as Israel and the United States fight in Lebanon, Israel is also in a major war with Hezbollah—a war designed to keep the group weak and off balance.

Commentary by Daniel Byman — March 19, 2026

Even after the latest war with Iran ends, lower-level hostilities between Iran and Israel—and perhaps the United States—might continue.

Commentary by Daniel Byman — March 11, 2026

Secretary Hegseth called Operation Epic Fury “straightforward.” But while the United States strikes the Iranian navy, nuclear program, and missiles, Israel and Trump eye regime change. This piece deconstructs that daylight and the true cost of each goal.

Commentary by Emily Harding — March 11, 2026

Early in the morning of February 27, Pakistan’s defense minister announced “open war” between Pakistan and the Taliban, a group that Islamabad frequently backed in its 30-year quest to rule Afghanistan.

Critical Questions by Alexander Palmer and Alexander Margolis — February 27, 2026

If the United States strikes Iran, how will Tehran respond? History suggests a calibrated mix of cyberattacks, drones, maritime pressure, and limited missile strikes designed to signal resolve while avoiding a wider regional war.

Critical Questions by Benjamin Jensen — February 26, 2026

Eight months after Operation Midnight Hammer, the United States has again moved large air and naval forces to the Middle East. These can launch punitive strikes on Iran and protect U.S. allies and partners but lack the capability for ground operations, raids, or regime change.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — February 20, 2026

This morning, a suicide bomber attacked a Shia mosque in Islamabad, Pakistan. The most likely perpetrator is the Islamic State–Khorasan Province, which operates both in Afghanistan and Pakistan but has a significant interest in mass-casualty international attacks. 

Critical Questions by Alexander Palmer and Alexander Margolis — February 6, 2026

Despite claims of success in Ukraine, new CSIS data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains.

Event — January 30, 2026