It’s no secret that Intel has been down in the dumps for essentially all of 2024. You’d be hard-pressed to find any kind of good news surrounding the chip giant from the last 12 months. Raptor Lake was the flashpoint; the 13th and 14th Gen CPUs were degrading rapidly to the point where they were unusable, and attempts to mitigate the degradation were too little, too late.
In the midst of this disaster, Intel laid off 15,000 employees and announced it was ceasing “non-essential work.” Intel was poised for a good 2024, but that feels like a lifetime ago now. You’d be forgiven for writing off the CPU giant for next year too, but I think that’s a bit presumptuous. I believe 2025 will be a strong year for Intel, and here’s why.
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Arrow Lake is a good foundation to build on
Think of it as Intel's 'Ryzen 1000' series
Make no bones about it, Arrow Lake was not a great launch in the eyes of consumers. Productivity suites saw some increases in performance, but largely, gains were seen in efficiency, both in power usage and thermals. This just isn't enough to convince prospective buyers that the Core Ultra series is worth it, especially considering it's on an entirely new platform. Even against its own 13th and 14th Gen offerings, consumers aren't convinced it's worth the extra hassle.
Upon further inspection, however, not all is lost for Arrow Lake. By their own admission, they got some things wrong with the debut of the platform, and fixes are on the way. These growing pains may hurt a lot more than usual launch-day bugs, but as long as Intel crosses their t's and dots their i's, we should see considerable improvements on the platform as it continues to mature. XDA's own Rich Edmonds put it best: the Core Ultra 200 series feels like one big beta test. Performance improvements will come along with refinements to the software, and there's no reason to believe further releases on the platform won't improve things further.
Can Intel survive on its own?
I never thought I'd find myself wondering if Intel can survive in the PC market. All my life, Intel has been the most constant name when it comes to processors. Sure, there were some blunders, but almost any PC you'd see out in public would be powered by Intel. It's hard to imagine a company with that kind of influence ever falling behind. But the company is seriously struggling right now. We just saw the launch of its Arrow Lake desktop processors, and it seems that despite facing similar issues with its previous two generations of desktop CPUs, things haven't really improved this generation. Intel struggled for years to move to smaller processor nodes, and it seems like it's still struggling, since its Lunar Lake processors are actually manufactured by TSMC. And while its desktop processors are plagued with numerous issues, its mobile processors are being threatened by Arm-based alternatives. Intel already lost Apple back in 2020, and Qualcomm has now entered the scene for Windows
CHIPS act has yet to kick in
Help is on the way, allegedly
Intel has its own fabrication facilities, but they lack the ability to produce their cutting-edge designs en masse. Enter TSMC, Taiwan's semiconductor powerhouse. Intel has been outsourcing chip production for Arrow Lake and others to TSMC and, in the meantime, they're building up their own ability to produce the processors domestically.
In 2022, the CHIPS (Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors) Act was passed in the U.S. in an effort to bolster semiconductor production on U.S. soil. While the results of the most recent U.S. presidential election may throw a wrench into things, if all goes well, help is on the way for Intel. Grants given via the CHIPS Act will help subsidize the cost of construction for these new chip fabrication facilities, and hopefully give Intel the much-needed boost it needs. It hasn't seen a penny from it yet, so once it does, hopefully it translates into better options for consumers.
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This feels like rock bottom
They simply can't afford to sink any lower
Intel was the king of the hill in the CPU space for essentially an entire decade, and their current low points are novel to say the least. I think Intel knows it can't have many more failures as a business. The next few years are going to be the most important ones in its history.
The years of dominance don't matter if you can't put out products that customers have faith in, but Intel has built up a lot of good will over the years with those who are loyal to the blue team. All it would take is a couple of strong generations to get right back in the mix with AMD, and that's not completely out of the question.
We should all be rooting for Intel to get back on its feet
Regardless of where your loyalty lies, competition is good for consumers. AMD's resurgence over the last few years has been great for anyone in the market for a CPU, or GPU for that matter. We would all be better off if Intel got back on its feet quickly and started putting out products that rival AMD, both in productivity suites and in gaming performance.