Valve's Steam Machine was announced in what feels like an eternity ago. It's essentially a tiny custom-built HTPC that runs SteamOS, compatible with their new Steam Controller and Steam Frame VR headset. While the specs are well known, the price was never announced, and this naturally led to a lot of speculation.

Given what's happened in the PC industry since the announcement, nobody would be blamed for thinking the Steam Machine's future is in serious doubt. A product that already takes a lot of risks now has to overcome turbulent market conditions, and due to that, I don't think it can be a viable product for most people in the target demographic. With a price that's almost certainly increased internally since the announcement, there's a good chance the Steam Machine is DOA, but I don't think that's a bad thing. The core concept is still incredibly strong, and those who do end up getting their hands on one will likely sing its praises loudly.

The Steam Machine is a curious machine on paper

A Linux HTPC for the masses

The Steam Machine created a lot of buzz when it was announced; a Linux-based HTPC with relatively modest specs targeting 4K at 60 FPS. Valve's tendency to price things as low as possible to gain market share (or create the market for the product, as they did with the Steam Deck) led some to believe that this would be priced competitively, but no details were shared upon the announcement. With the equivalent to a beefed up RX 7400 GPU and a Ryzen 5 7600 under the hood in the form of semi-custom silicon, it doesn't exactly scream 4K at 60 FPS, but it's obvious that upscaling will be needed, and Valve themselves have said as much in a recent press release.

The DRAM crisis has brought everything to a screeching halt

Including the Steam Machine

Over the last several months, several types of PC components, namely RAM and flash storage, have shot up 5-6x in cost due to DRAM shortages. A PC enthusiast's ability to afford these types of hardware is obviously affected, but companies like Valve are also caught in the price tsunami. The Steam Machine has 16 GB of DDR5 memory and 8 GB of VRAM, neither of which are going to be particularly easy to come by at the moment. Factoring in the new cost of storage, and we're talking about a price increase of several hundred dollars.

The price was already in question

It has gone from questionable to out of the question

The price of the Steam Machine was already in question. Given its specs, many were speculating that the price could be anywhere between $500-$800, with the high and low ends of that spectrum being a bit unlikely. With the recent price increases, any price in that ballpark seems low, as you can easily spend that amount on memory and storage alone when building a new PC.

Valve have addressed this directly, and while still not giving concrete price data, they've confirmed that the Steam Machine and Steam Frame are affected by the DRAM crisis.

In their most recent post on the Steam News Hub, Valve wrote:

"When we announced these products in November, we planned on being able to share specific pricing and launch dates by now. But the memory and storage shortages you've likely heard about across the industry have rapidly increased since then. The limited availability and growing prices of these critical components mean we must revisit our exact shipping schedule and pricing (especially around Steam Machine and Steam Frame)."

They go onto say that they have "work to do" on nailing down a price and release date for the hardware, which is completely understandable given market conditions. DRAM prices are changing so rapidly that it's likely to be extremely difficult to obtain a solid, contractural price on the components, which basically means they're effectively unable to price the product.

Why that might be okay

The idea is still a good one

The Steam Machine could very well be over $1000, given it's unlikely that Valve will find a way to obtain components at below current market value. At that price, it's DOA as a product. Its original target user base will not be willing to pay that much for the hardware within, and that's just the truth.

Despite that, I don't think it's all doom and gloom for the Steam Machine as a concept.

Those that will get their hands on them will likely be dedicated fans of Steam Hardware, or those genuinely curious about the SteamOS ecosystem that Valve seems keen on expanding. The Steam Deck was a total success, but you could argue that it would've been just as successful if it was a little bit more expensive. Despite having no real competition, Valve priced it as low as they possibly could, and I imagine that's what they'd like to do with the Steam Machine, but it's just not in the cards.

If Valve have truly cooked up something special, the price might not matter all that much. Sure, it's a glorified ITX PC with Linux on it, but it's the first true look at SteamOS on a desktop machine that's more capable than Steam Deck. If Valve have nailed all parts of the experience besides price, once components do become reasonable again, there's no reason to believe they won't take another huge swing at bringing Linux to the living room.

The Steam Machine is almost certainly not worth the price, but it doesn't matter

In the short term, the Steam Machine might simply be a victim of timing. A product in the right place at the wrong time can still be a good product, especially if the underlying technology has Valve's classic attention to detail stamped all over it. And even if this specific iteration never quite lands, the broader push behind it still matters. Every serious attempt to ship consumer hardware running SteamOS chips away at the idea that Windows is the only viable home for PC gaming. The Steam Deck already proved that Valve can reshape expectations; a desktop-class SteamOS box would only reinforce that momentum.