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I'm delighted to share my cover essay in the new issue of @ForeignAffairs, “How to Fight an Economic War.”
It examines the rapidly evolving geoeconomic landscape and proposes a way forward for the United States. (1/6)
Eddie Fishman
2,650 posts
Eddie Fishman
@edwardfishman
Author of Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare | Senior Fellow & Director of the Greenberg Center for Geoeconomics @CFR_org
Joined June 2009
- The US just unveiled the details of its sanctions against the Central Bank of Russia. Bottom line: This is close to the most ambitious form that this action could take. Here's my initial analysis (🧵):
- Putin's war shows no sign of letting up. It's time to impose sanctions on the lifeblood of Russia's economy: Oil Oil is the weak spot in the pressure campaign. It doesn't have to be. Here's how the US & Europe can cut Russian oil sales while limiting adverse side effects (🧵):
- Sanctions against Russia have been unprecedented in speed, the scale of targets, and international cooperation. But they are NOT comprehensive. They remain a 7/10 or 8/10 in intensity, not a 10/10. A few myths that require correcting (🧵):
- As Russian forces move on Kyiv, it's time to get serious about ratcheting sanctions up a notch. The US and Europe have ample room for escalation. A few thoughts on the option set (🧵):
- Today, the G7 formally endorsed a price cap on Russian oil sales. This plan has been in the works for months. Many doubted it would get across the finish line. Bottom line: This is a big deal. It will erode the Kremlin's most critical source of revenue: oil exports (🧵):
- Replying to @edwardfishman(5) This is a sanctions action without precedent. As a result, the specific consequences aren't easy to predict with a high level of confidence. But the consequences will certainly be far-reaching. And it took a whole lot of courage for the US and Europe to take this step.
- European banks are sitting on well above $200 billion in frozen Russian assets—more than the total value of all U.S. aid to Ukraine over the past three years Now would be a good time to seize them and give them to Ukraine
- What do today's first wave of US sanctions mean? A short 🧵 ...
- Replying to @edwardfishman(3) Today's action was remarkably well coordinated with the EU. To many observers' surprise, the EU roughly matched the US actions, including imposing sanctions on Russian sovereign debt. The message to Putin? The US and EU are much better aligned than skeptics have claimed.
- Replying to @edwardfishman(3) Now that the details are out, it looks like these are essentially blocking sanctions. (There are technical differences, but the effect is the same—"any transaction" with the CBR is prohibited.) The CBR will be unable to intervene in FX markets to prop up the ruble, full stop.
- The US, EU, Canada, & the UK just released a joint statement committing to several major sanctions actions, including a SWIFT ban and restrictions on the Central Bank of Russia. This is a big deal, but details will matter. Here's my initial analysis (🧵):
- Replying to @edwardfishman(5) Don't get me wrong: the sanctions campaign has been impressive. The US and Europe have shown remarkable solidarity and resolve. But now is not the time to rest on our laurels. Ukrainians remain under heavy fire. The West needs to step up the pressure. /end
- Putin's unprovoked war against Ukraine is a crime against humanity. No sanctions can be proportional to the violence wrought upon Ukraine. The least the West can do is impose "swift and severe consequences" as @POTUS has promised. A few thoughts on what this should look like:
