For 1st time in almost 30 years, China’s GDP in $ fell in 2023 to about $17.5trn, while U.S. gdp rise 6% to about $27trn. The gap widened by about $2trn. And China’s share of world GDP slipped to just under 17%. How meaningful is this? 1/4
George Magnus
48.4K posts
George Magnus
@georgemagnus1
Economist. Once Chief Economist at UBS. Now China Centre, Oxford & SOAS, Advisory Board China Observatory, Council on Geostrategy. Ops/blogs on website.
- This is just so. Brilliant. EU ref results and mad cow disease
- This is obv a big moment for China and ev’one else, looking at the cumulative wave of bad news. But it wd be mistake to think this is all about Covid, or just the 3 yr old property bust, and that there are policy tweaks that can address recent probs. 1/4
- The best most insightful analysis you’ll hear at the moment from former spooks chief. Top drawerWelcome to Cold War 2 between America and the DragonBear. Adapt or perish!
- Well done @OwenJones84. In 1 tweet you’ve demonstrated why Lab needs to split, how you’ll alienate too many Lab voters, and that you and ilk are really on back foot now. It’s the beginning of the end for you ppl
- Well. I can see why republicans want a republic but it’s times like this that I think we should all think Clement Attlee’s words on the entire topic…
- So this dog is definitely not going to hunt. The idea you can graft a currency on to a disparate group of countries with wildly different economic, bop and market structures is a non-starter. China’s yuan isn’t even fully convertible. Russia is a sanctioned pariah. 1/3BRICS nations asked the bloc’s specially created bank to provide guidance on a how a potential new shared currency might work bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @bpolitics
- Can’t believe how many times we have to counter this flawed thinking that ppl have been spouting for so long. Short explainer here /1. How the Ukraine war could boost China’s global finance ambitions via @FTon.ft.com/3sSgpLq
- First Evergrande, now another biggie in Country Garden. Not as big, but worse timing. And contagion risks from property into banks and shadow banks, as I explain here. And what this all signifies. China’s property sector is on the brink of disaster – again
- “The number of loss-making industrial firms in China is now at 180,000, which is at least three times as high as in any point in the last 25 years,” Think about that. That’s nearly 40% of industrial firms acc to Chinese Stats Yearbook 1/2
- Shanghai’s Covid lockdown is causing untold problems for China/beyond. Here is a story about the port and ship pile up going on which’ll take ages to work thru: /1 Supply-Chain: China Port Congestion Worsens as 477 Bulk Ships Waiting to Berth - Bloomberg
- Lol - and a 2019 troll award to the editor who came up with this headline
- Nice graphic showing how China’s inverted pop pyramid contrasts with India’s as median age in China surges to 47, while in India still only 36. China’s need is for deeper social security and productivity, India’s is for jobs.Comparing China vs. India Population PyramidsGIF
- China is wedded to industrial policy, and exports, and can’t therefore switch to consumption. As this quotes Xi, ‘China’s focus on industrial output had been the right decision’. Ppl keep saying China could/might change, but the point is it won’t. on.ft.com/44MOWyj
