The cost of food in a time of war

The community pantries are back and they are a major stopover now for jeepney and tricycle drivers. You see the snaking queues as those in need pick whatever they can – tomatoes, sayote, leafy vegetables and what-have-you.

With our economy embroiled in this lingering and cruel war in the Middle East, this energy emergency is clearly extending to the food sector, something we all cannot live without, crisis or no crisis, as sky-high oil and gas prices push the cost of food higher.

It doesn’t look like the war is ending soon, with Trump finding himself falling deeper into a hole he himself dug. Iran isn’t backing down, thriving on conflict, its guns blazing with decades of anger against the US and US-backed enemies.

But this crisis also puts the spotlight on our agri-food system, which contributes around 30 to 35 percent of GDP and supports close to 40 percent of total employment, directly and indirectly.

The food sector covers agriculture, production, logistics, retail, dining and tourism. It’s not only huge but also a major pillar of the economy.

Improving the food system

The sector, however, is not without challenges.

Our productivity remains weak. The whole system,  which runs from farm inputs and production to processing, storage, transport, distribution, retail and food service, has problems at almost every stage.

Many of our agriculture experts have been saying that the Philippines needs to invest more in logistics, cold chain and storage to reduce losses and costs.

Farmers must also have access to financing, technology and markets so they can improve farm productivity.

This means consistent policy that supports long-term investment across the value chain.

Improving the agri-food system would connect rural livelihoods to urban consumption, which translates to higher household spending, which in turn would contribute to the economy.

But because we have weak productivity, we depend heavily on importation.

However, this in itself poses another problem, especially with the lingering war in the Middle East.

Global trade is becoming less predictable with transport routes affected by geopolitical tensions. Supply chains are tightening. Export restrictions are becoming common.

All these have made us vulnerable.

Long-term investments

Against this backdrop, our government must exert all efforts to support our farmers and improve their productivity.

As I said, we need to invest in financing, technology and help them access markets.

It is important for the Philippines, as a food importer to be able to access global supply. But this means consistent policies locally.

Toward this end, there is a proposed Philippine Nutrient Profile Model (PNPM), which aims to provide better regulations on marketing food to children – including front-of-pack labeling.

The PNPM, welcomed by health advocates, is a policy tool designed to curb noncommunicable diseases by setting threshold limits for sugar, sodium, fats and sweeteners in processed foods.

It is no doubt a good policy, especially when it comes to public health.

However, some in the food industry are raising questions regarding the nutritional thresholds set in this model, noting that it could affect the affordability of food supplies.

At this time of rising costs of goods, some industry players fear that this would result in higher costs of food. Retailers, restaurants and even tourism may be affected as they depend heavily on food supply chains.

Unfortunately, the reality is that additional compliance requirements may push costs higher in these trying times.

Large companies may be able to adapt but for the smaller food producers, such new requirements can mean higher costs. Retailers may not have enough options in terms of product variety they can sell while restaurants may face higher input costs.

Tourism and hospitality, which depend heavily on food offerings, may also be affected.

What to do then?

Perhaps, better coordination across the entire ecosystem – between government, industry and international partners – could be put in place to implement the policy better.

An Oxford Economics study titled “The Economic Impact of the Agri-food Sector in the Philippines 2026” said that as a net food importer, the nation faces heightened uncertainty from trade tensions, further exacerbated by the long-term challenges of climate change.

“These pressures undermine both food security and the  competitiveness of local producers and exporters,” it said.

But there is hope.

The study said that through continued emphasis on trade openness, infrastructure investment and institutional capacity, the Philippines’ agri-food sector can maintain its resilience and reinforce its role as a catalyst for inclusive economic growth.

Ways to do this include streamlining border procedures, enhancing logistics and offering better access to finance and certification.

These measures can support firms against external shocks and sustain export momentum.

An open trade regime also strengthens the absorptive capacity of redirected food supplies, mitigating the risks of food inflation, the Oxford study said.

Long-term competitiveness requires transparent, predictable trade and investment policies and regulatory measures relating to food.

In all, the Oxford Economics study said stronger coordination among stakeholders can turn policy goals into action. This can be done by easing cross-border investments and working with global groups to align standards and share best practices.

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