The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced its interventions on the interbank foreign exchange market in February by $547.6 million, or 15.5%, to $2.9905 billion. Over the same period, the official hryvnia exchange rate against the U.S. dollar weakened by 0.8%, or 36 kopiikas.

At the same time, during the final week of February, the central bank increased its dollar sales on the interbank market by $148.3 million, or 22.4%, compared with the previous week, bringing total sales to $809.5 million. Meanwhile, the hryvnia strengthened by nearly 0.2%, or 7 kopiikas.

According to NBU data, during the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance between foreign currency purchases and sales by legal entities rose to $117.9 million from $79.3 million during the same period a week earlier, totaling $471.4 million.

On the retail foreign exchange market, the negative balance for Saturday through Thursday also increased, to $17.3 million from $16.4 million the week before last. On each of those days, sales of non-cash foreign currency exceeded purchases.

The official hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar began last week at UAH 43.2747 per $1 and ended the week stronger at UAH 43.2081 per $1.

On the cash market, the dollar exchange rate also saw no significant changes over the past week: as of February 26, the buying rate stood at about UAH 42.92 per $1 and the selling rate at about UAH 43.30 per $1.

Analysts at KYT Group, a major participant in the cash foreign exchange market (Liberty-Finance LLC), note that at the end of February, the spread between buying and selling rates at bank cash desks and exchange offices has been gradually narrowing and stands at about UAH 0.4–0.5 per dollar.

In their view, exchange rate fluctuations at the end of February were influenced not only by official reports on the U.S. labor market and inflation and market expectations ahead of the March 17–18 decision on the key interest rate, but also by U.S. President Donald Trump’s February 24 address to Congress. In that speech, he highly praised his economic achievements and criticized the Supreme Court for ruling against his tariff policy, calling tariff decisions a key driver of an "economic turnaround."

"Overall, analysts do not expect sharp declines in the dollar in the near term, as the latest statistical data point to fairly solid economic prospects, and the majority forecast of an unchanged rate in March should support the dollar’s position," the company said.

In the domestic context, KYT Group highlights the gradual depreciation of the hryvnia throughout February and the role of the NBU in maintaining a balance between supply and demand through regular interventions, as well as news regarding international support for Ukraine and risks related to the energy sector.

According to their forecasts, in the short term (one to two weeks), the base range for the dollar exchange rate will be UAH 43.3–43.8 per $1, with a likely gravitation toward UAH 43.5–43.6 per $1. In the medium term (two to three months), the range is projected at UAH 43.60–44.60 per $1, while in the long term (six months and beyond), a depreciation trend is expected to persist, with a target range of UAH 43.6–45.05 per $1.