The rise in diesel prices on European markets, which since April has reached a new record of $1,521 per tonne on the London ICE exchange, gaining $155 per tonne in a single day, could eventually lead to higher prices for this fuel in Ukraine, up to UAH 100 per liter, according to Serhiy Kuyun, director of the A-95 consulting group.

"If we push on ICE benchmarks, the cost of diesel at the border would reach UAH 95 per liter. And then the already familiar algorithm applies: UAH 2 per liter for transportation within Ukraine, UAH 3 for gas station expenses (staff salaries, electricity, etc.). There is also a margin, but even without those additional UAH 3–5 per liter, it is already clear that UAH 100 per liter is rather a realistic scenario if the situation with the global fuel crisis does not change," Kuyun wrote on Facebook on Friday.

He added that diesel quotations in Southern Europe reached $1,617 per tonne (CIF), having more than doubled over March.

According to him, wholesale diesel prices are already in the range of UAH 90–93.5 per liter.

At the same time, Kuyun emphasized that diesel will not reach UAH 100 per liter either tomorrow or within a week, but "the trend is obvious and is progressing across Europe."

He also once again stressed that no diesel shortage is expected in Ukraine.

"In March, a record 577,000 tonnes were imported, the highest since 2021, which created a solid carryover stock for April. In addition, all retail chains have already contracted supplies for April. At the same time, a decline in sales is being observed… As for gasoline, inventories exceed one month of supply in addition to ongoing deliveries. Therefore, fuel will be available. The question of price remains open," he concluded.

As reported, according to monitoring by the Energy Reform online portal, on March 27 premium diesel (DT+) exceeded the UAH 90 per liter threshold, reaching UAH 90.99 per liter. As of April 3, its price at Ukrnafta stands at UAH 88.9 per liter, the lowest among the surveyed networks, while at WOG and OKKO it is UAH 92.9 per liter, and at Socar UAH 92.99 per liter, the highest level recorded.